Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

Multi‐sited accumulation of capital: Cape Verdean returnees and small‐scale business

In recent years, policymakers have portrayed return migration as positive for development. In both migrant sending and migrant receiving countries, policymakers expect the transfer of economic, cultural and social capital by returnees to stimulate economic growth. Inherent in these assumptions is the idea of a unidirectional flow of capital from northern countries of immigration to the countries of return. The objective of this article is to contest this idea of a one‐way transfer of capital through a case study of Cape Verdean returnee business owners. To what extent have they accumulated their various forms of capital before emigration, during their sojourn abroad or after return? In this article, I examine the returnees' multi‐sited accumulation of capital and how it corresponds to the resources they need to run a sustainable business. In addition, I analyse how they adapt capital accumulated abroad to the conditions in Cape Verde.     

How union mergers affect membership participation

Using data from a survey of union members, we explore how an amalgamation of two Swedish unions affects membership participation. The research literature on the topic is mostly anecdotal and speculative, suggesting that mergers might have detrimental effects on membership participation because they create large unions with centralized governance and administration. But in this study, we do not find a broad-based decline in membership participation measured before and after merger as well as in relation to a comparison union that did not merge. These results are discussed in terms of the national context of union mergers in Sweden and the ways that mergers are negotiated, presented, and implemented to preserve membership participation. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Emerging Union Structures: Reshaping Labour Market Institutions, Canberra, Australia in December 1997. The data collection for this project was supported by funds from the National Institute for Working Life in Stockholm.     

Social workers' assessments of needs and interventions for adolescents with substance misuse problems,criminal behaviour and mental health difficulties: a vignette study

The aim of the current vignette study was to examine how social workers assess adolescents with substance misuse problems, criminal behaviour and mental health difficulties, and how they make decisions about treatment interventions to reduce these problems. Earlier research has shown lack of knowledge concerning factors and processes that govern assessments and decisions in social work practice. In this anonymously administered survey, social workers in Stockholm, Sweden, were invited to assess fictitious youth issues. We found that social workers recognise the problems and needs of young people, but that they find it harder to link needs to evidence-based interventions. Also, there is a tendency to overrate alleged non-serious problems in the vignettes. We conclude that there is a need for increased knowledge about evidence-based methods and more structured procedures to broaden the basis for decisions.     

Intra‐ and Inter‐generational Perspectives on Youth Participation in Sweden: A Study with Young People as Research Partners

In this study, intra‐ and inter‐generational perspectives on youth participation are combined and compared. Young people were invited to participate as research partners in an interactive research circle and conducted a survey about participation with other young people as respondents. The discussion concerns how an interactive methodology contributes to the understanding of the concept of participation. It is suggested that political definitions of participation be amended to include having a sense of being recognised in a communicative context, taking responsibility and share with other people one's experiences. This is based on the perspectives of young people.     

Nutrient intake in day workers and shift workers

Abstract

The 24-h dietary intake, nutritional status parameters and psychosomatic factors of two-shift, three-shift and day workers were compared. Estimations of the dietary intake (across a work cycle) were made by use of a nutrient database. No significant differences were found between the groups for a large number of nutritional variables: intake of energy; intake and percentage of energy from protein, fat, total carbohydrates and sucrose; intake of coffee; and intake and density of vitamins and minerals. Only minor differences were found between the groups with regard to the quantitative intake of alcohol and calcium, and with regard to the quality of the diet (percentage of energy from alcohol, density of calcium). The groups differed significantly with respect to attitude towards work hours (three-shift workers being most negative in their attitude) and sleep disturbances (shift workers being most negative). The three-shift workers were more evening-oriented and they had higher concentrations of glucose in their blood. It was concluded that work hours not related to nutritional intake—at least not when total amounts across time are considered. It was also concluded that work hours were not related to Body Mass Index or blood lipids: triglycerides, total cholesterol, LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol and HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol.