An algorithm to compute the cdf of the product of two normal random variables

This paper provides a fortran algorithm that can be used to compute the cdf of the product of two normal distribution random variables. We also give references that provide mathematical properties, tables, and applications of this distribution     

An interactional model of questions as therapeutic interventions

We dedicate this article to the memory of Steve de Shazer, who was the University's External Examiner for the doctoral dissertation on which this article is based. His comments were both generous and influential, as they were on many other occasions. We would also like to thank Ron Chenail (as Editor of JMFT ) and Dora Fried Schnitman (as Editor of Sistemas Familiares) for coordinating the simultaneous review and publication of this article in English and Spanish.     

Efficiency in Games With Markovian Private Information

We study repeated Bayesian games with communication and observable actions in which the players' privately known payoffs evolve according to an irreducible Markov chain whose transitions are independent across players. Our main result implies that, generically, any Pareto‐efficient payoff vector above a stationary minmax value can be approximated arbitrarily closely in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium as the discount factor goes to 1. As an intermediate step, we construct an approximately efficient dynamic mechanism for long finite horizons without assuming transferable utility.     

Crawling Predicts Infants’ Understanding of Agents’ Navigation of Obstacles

We investigated whether crawling versus noncrawling infants interpret an agent's movements around an obstacle as goal‐directed. Infants (6–9 months) were habituated to a self‐propelled circle jumping over an obstacle to reach a goal. When the obstacle was removed, infants who crawled (n = 13) showed longer looking time to the familiar but now nonrational jumping path versus a novel but rational straight‐line path. Noncrawlers (n = 17) did not discriminate. Looking preference was independent of age and speed of habituation. These findings support the claim that infants’ processing of agency emerges early and applies to all agents, but stress the role of experience in the development of action interpretation.     

Preliminary-Data Error and Monetary Aggregate Targeting

Preliminary monetary aggregate data are subject to subsequent revision because of errors from seasonal and nonseasonal sources that will only be known later. This article examines the characteristics of these revision errors and analyzes their possible effect on monetary policy. It is found that false signals, in the sense that the preliminary M1 growth rate falls within the tolerance band set monthly by the Federal Open Market Committee while the final revised figure lies outside the tolerance limits, or vice versa, occur about two-fifths of the time. It is shown that this proportion can be halved by the adoption of improved seasonal adjustment procedures.     

发展的历史, 现代性的困境 ———以批判性的发展研究视角审视全球化

文章旨在通过回顾批判性发展研究以及有关现代性的争论中历史的和现今的主要趋势，借以构想对中国农村发展研究有所启迪的相关问题。同时，本文简要地呈现了一个哥伦比亚地区雨林保护的案例研究。文章第一部分从话语与社会实践的维度对发展进行了历史回顾，指出发展不仅是近代以来（二战以后）的产物，且具有更深远的历史渊源（植根于欧洲现代性），并以探讨后发展、另类现代性、非现代性等概念作为小结。文章第二部分关于哥伦比亚的案例研究，介绍了该地区某社会运动如何构建自身的政治生态，并一度对该地区的发展方向产生重大影响。文章第三部分提出了一个大纲式框架，旨在从生态、文化和经济差异的角度思辨发展。作为结论，本文提出了一些可能与中国农村发展具有相关性的问题。     

Can Migration Foster Development in Mexico? The Case of Poverty and Inequality

The impact of migration on development can be analysed from a number of perspectives. This article focuses on poverty and inequality. It assesses the relative contribution of migrants to Mexico′s economy through remittances, compared to other Latin American countries; analyses the distributional impact of remittances (with an emphasis on the poor), and compares this impact to the counterfactual impact of migrants’ stay‐at‐home income. It explains the processes leading to scant economic success rates among poor international migrants. Finally, it describes the nature and impact of current Mexican migrant‐oriented policies, and recommends a shift in focus, to lessen emigration, increase the income of migrants, promote returns, and bolster the economic impact of returning migrants.     

A general algorithm for computing simultaneous prediction intervals for the (log)-location-scale family of distributions

Making predictions of future realized values of random variables based on currently available data is a frequent task in statistical applications. In some applications, the interest is to obtain a two-sided simultaneous prediction interval (SPI) to contain at least k out of m future observations with a certain confidence level based on n previous observations from the same distribution. A closely related problem is to obtain a one-sided upper (or lower) simultaneous prediction bound (SPB) to exceed (or be exceeded) by at least k out of m future observations. In this paper, we provide a general approach for computing SPIs and SPBs based on data from a particular member of the (log)-location-scale family of distributions with complete or right censored data. The proposed simulation-based procedure can provide exact coverage probability for complete and Type II censored data. For Type I censored data, our simulation results show that our procedure provides satisfactory results in small samples. We use three applications to illustrate the proposed simultaneous prediction intervals and bounds.     

The use of finite mixture models to estimate the distribution of the health utilities index in the presence of a ceiling effect

Finite mixture models are flexible parametric models that allow one to describe complex probability distributions as a mixture of a small number of simple probability distributions. Measures of health status are often used to reflect a person's overall health. Such measures may be subject to a ceiling effect, in that the measure is unable to discern gradations in health status above the ceiling. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of finite mixture models to describe the probability distribution of the Health Utilities Index, under the assumption that the HUI is subject to a ceiling effect. Mixture models with two through six components are fit to the HUI. Bayes factors were used to compare the evidence that the Canadian population of non-institutionalized residents is composed of four distinct subpopulations, and that a mixture of six Normal components is required to describe these four subpopulations.