Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges

What is the role of population in driving deforestation? This question was put forth as a discussion topic in the cyberseminar hosted by Population Environment Research Network (PERN) in Spring, 2003. Contributors from diverse backgrounds weighed in on the discussion, citing key factors in the population-deforestation nexus and suggesting further courses of action and research. Participants explored themes of their own choosing, with many coming to the forefront. Scale, time, and place-based effects were cited as areas in need of particular attention. Consumption patterns as the mechanism for spurring deforestation were discussed, drawing attention to the differential patterns associated with urban vs. rural demands on forest resources and land. The applicability of the IPAT formula and the influence of its component parts, affluence and technology, when operating in tandem with population, was debated. The relation of demographic factors to these pathways was critically examined. Institutional and governmental influence, such as infrastructure and policies affecting access and incentives, the valuation of resources, and institutional failures such as mismanagement and corruption emerged as a crucial set of factors. This article synthesizes the critical debates in the population-deforestation literature, makes suggestions for future paths of research, and discussed possible policy and direct action initiatives.     

Farm Household Lifecycles and Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper describes trends in population, household formation, fragmentation of landholdings, and changes in land use between 1990 and 1999 in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA)—one of the areas of highest biodiversity in the world. It also shows how changes in land use are associated with the duration (or age) of the farm settlement, which is also linked to the stage in the farm household lifecycle and household composition. The study is based upon data from two detailed household surveys, which result in a cohort of 246 farm households interviewed in 1990 and 1999 as well as 383 new farm households constituted after 1990. Distinct patterns of land use are linked with duration of settlement, independent of when settlement occurred in the region.     

Correlates of Depressive Symptom Severity in Problem and Pathological Gamblers in Couple Relationships

Problem and pathological gamblers (PPG) often suffer from depressive symptoms. Gambling problems have negative consequences on multiple aspects of gamblers’ lives, including family and marital relationships. The objectives of the current study were to (1) replicate the results of studies that have suggested a stronger and more significant relationship between gambling and depression in PPG than in non-problem gamblers (NPG) and (2) explore specific correlates of depressive symptom severity in PPG in couple relationships. Variables demonstrated to be significantly correlated with depressive symptoms in the general population were selected. It was hypothesized that gender, age, gambler’s mean annual income, perceived poverty, employment status, clinical status (i.e., problem or pathological gambler versus non-problem gambler), trait anxiety, alcoholism, problem-solving skills, and dyadic adjustment would be significant predictors of depressive symptoms. Sixty-seven PPG were recruited, primarily from an addiction treatment center; 40 NPG were recruited, primarily through the media. Results revealed that PPG reported significantly greater depressive symptoms than did NPG. Further, elevated trait anxiety and poor dyadic adjustment were demonstrated to be significant and specific correlates of depressive symptom severity in PPG. These findings contribute to the literature on depressive symptomatology in PPG in relationships, and highlight the importance of the influence of the couple relationship on PPG.