Surname analysis for estimating local concentration of Hispanics and Asians

Surname analysis is a potentially useful technique for identifying members of particular racial, ethnic, or language communities within a population. We review the existing state of the art for identifying persons of Hispanic or Asian origin, based on surnames distinctive of each group. We describe the logic of surname analysis, profile several available surname dictionaries, and illustrate their applications in local redistricting. Results of our ongoing validation studies suggest promising future directions for improving accuracy and broadening applications.This article is based on a paper presented at the annual Population Association of America meetings at Cincinnati, 1 April 1993.     

The validity of survey responses on abortion: Evidence from Estonia

This paper presents results of a validation survey of abortion conducted in Tallinn, Estonia in April and May 1992. The sample was drawn from patient records in a maternity hospital. Women who had an abortion in that hospital in 1991 were asked about recent abortions as part of a survey about women’s health. More than 80% of the respondents reported having a recent abortion. Some respondents misreported their abortion as a miscarriage. Moreover, some variation in reporting was associated with respondents’ characteristics. Ethnic Estonians were less likely to report their abortion than were Russians, women over age 40 were less likely to report the abortion than younger women, and women who had the abortion late in the first trimester were less likely to report that abortion. There was some evidence that unmarried women were less likely than married women to report their abortion, and that women who had borne three or more children were less likely to report their abortion than women who had borne fewer children. These differences probably stem from the extent to which pregnancy or abortion is considered stigmatizing for women in different situations.     

Temporary and illegal labour migration: the Israeli experience

In recent years, Israel has become a major recipient of documented and undocumented temporary labour migrants from many countries outside the Middle East region. The purposes of this article are to describe Israel's experience of temporary labour migration and its concomitant, illegal labour migration; and also to explore what her policies on temporary labour migration indicate about the nature of the policy-making process in this policy domain in Israel.
To these ends the article traces the evolution of temporary labour migration – legal and illegal – and recent policy initiatives of the Israeli government. It then considers some of the major conceptions of the policy-making process found in public policy literature. The article concludes by pointing to the uniqueness of Israel's experience of temporary labour migration and to the fact that her policies have been overwhelmingly reactive – inadequately considered, ill-conceived, ambivalent in relation to their ultimate purpose and, in the course of implementation, vulnerable to "privatization" (being taken over by vested interest groups).
Analysis of the most recent policy initiatives designed to reduce the number of legal labour migrants and address the problem of illegal labour migrants, reflect a policy-making process that is not followed by commensurate action.     

Will population slowdowns yield resource conservation? Some social demurrers

Recent movements and social programs for American population limitation are premised on the expectation that reduced fertility will lower consumption, and hence conserve resources. This premise suffers from the fallacy ofceteris paribus: that, at the familial level, fertility reductions occur with no other familial change. In fact, recent history suggests that reduced childrearing has permitted greater income attainment and consumption by families foregoing childbearing. Moreover, even if families attempted to maintain lower consumption, the aggregate impacts on the economy would be defined as depressive, and lead to macrostructural counteractive strategies by the private and public sectors. This points to the automaticmutatis mutandis fallacy of the populationist movement: the notion that fertility reduction alone will cause economic and environment changes. Resource conservation efforts must deal with both these facts and social scientists have an obligation to present this realistic picture rather than accepting the assumptions of Zero Population Growth.