Family structure and child outcomes in the USA and Sweden

Previous research shows that living in a non-intact family is associated with educational disadvantages. This paper compares the relationships between childhood family structure, schooling, and earnings in Sweden and the USA. This comparison is interesting because both family structure and public policies differ significantly. We find a negative relationship between living in a non-intact family and child outcomes, and the estimates are remarkably similar in both countries. After using sibling-difference models, the correlation with family structure is no longer significant. These results cast doubt on the causal interpretation of the negative relationship between non-intact family structures and child outcomes.     

Bootstrap Testing of Hypotheses on Co‐Integration Relations in Vector Autoregressive Models

It is well known that the finite‐sample properties of tests of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors in vector autoregressive models can be quite poor, and that current solutions based on Bartlett‐type corrections or bootstrap based on unrestricted parameter estimators are unsatisfactory, in particular in those cases where also asymptotic χ² tests fail most severely. In this paper, we solve this inference problem by showing the novel result that a bootstrap test where the null hypothesis is imposed on the bootstrap sample is asymptotically valid. That is, not only does it have asymptotically correct size, but, in contrast to what is claimed in existing literature, it is consistent under the alternative. Compared to the theory for bootstrap tests on the co‐integration rank (Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor, 2012), establishing the validity of the bootstrap in the framework of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors requires new theoretical developments, including the introduction of multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with random (reduced rank) drift parameters. Finally, as documented by Monte Carlo simulations, the bootstrap test outperforms existing methods.     

Oracle Inequalities for Convex Loss Functions with Nonlinear Targets

This article considers penalized empirical loss minimization of convex loss functions with unknown target functions. Using the elastic net penalty, of which the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) is a special case, we establish a finite sample oracle inequality which bounds the loss of our estimator from above with high probability. If the unknown target is linear, this inequality also provides an upper bound of the estimation error of the estimated parameter vector. Next, we use the non-asymptotic results to show that the excess loss of our estimator is asymptotically of the same order as that of the oracle. If the target is linear, we give sufficient conditions for consistency of the estimated parameter vector. We briefly discuss how a thresholded version of our estimator can be used to perform consistent variable selection. We give two examples of loss functions covered by our framework.     

A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

ABSTRACT We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the “strength” in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.     

Your position in society matters for how happy you are

This article shows that people's perception of their position in society is strongly correlated with their level of happiness, and thus that differences in happiness levels among countries in different welfare state clusters are influenced by people's perceptions of their relative position in society (subjective position). The study drew on data from the European Social Survey. Two important findings emerged from the analysis. First, an individual's subjective position in society is a more important predictor of happiness than objective measures such as income, education and labour market position. Second, the link between individuals’ perceived position in society and their level of happiness is moderated by the welfare state. In the Nordic countries, people's perceptions of their position in society have less influence on happiness whereas in Eastern European countries we found a strong connection between subjective position and happiness.     

Species richness in urban parks and its drivers: A review of empirical evidence

There is growing recognition of urban areas as hosts for innovative ways to conserve and promote biodiversity. Parks, as one specific type of urban green space, constitute particularly important biodiversity hotspots in the cityscape. We reviewed empirical findings on the species richness in urban parks across all species groups that have been studied. The aim was to assess and discuss the overall species richness of urban parks, its community attributes and drivers. Search and subsequent selection process resulted in 62 papers from 25 different countries. For all examined species groups, the findings consistently show that parks are among the most species rich types of urban green spaces, but also that exotics constitute large shares, especially of plant species. Key ecological theories like the gradient approach and the island habitat ecological theory, and fundamental ecological relationships such as the species-area relationship are valid despite the manipulated ‘nature’ of parks and the surrounding urban matrix. Most studies surveyed large number of parks and applied ‘multi-scale’ approaches in tests of confounding variables, providing methodological strength. While matrix effects are consistently found to affect species richness negatively, the diversity of habitats and microhabitat heterogeneity contained in urban parks appears as the most decisive factor for the overall species richness. However, a constraint of research to date is the limitation of individual studies to one or a few species groups, rarely bridging between flora and fauna. Adopting ‘multi-species group’ approaches in future research is needed to further advance the understanding of the overall biodiversity of urban parks, and its drivers.     

OLIGARCHIES AND DEVELOPMENT IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY: A TALE OF TWO ELITES

This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long‐run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital‐scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital‐scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)     

Distress or disability? Could a theoretical framework drawn from disability studies be a way forward when trying to understand experiences of oppression on the grounds of mental distress?

This article explores whether it is possible to use a theoretical framework drawn from disability studies to understand experiences of social oppression on the grounds of mental distress. Thomas’ extended social relational theoretisation of disablism was used in a PhD project concerned with experiences of mental distress. The tentative conclusion was that Thomas’ conceptualisation of disablism and impairment could offer a way of improving understanding of mental distress and oppression on the grounds of mental distress. However, Thomas and Reeve’s theorisation of the different forms of disablism was not readily transferred to the field of mental distress. Thus, tentative definitions of the different forms of disablism in relation to the field of mental distress were created. Perceived impairment type and disablism appear to be interconnected, and one has to acknowledge what kind of perceived impairment type one is focusing on when theorising disability and the different types of disablism.