The Burden of Risk: Who Dies Because of Cars?

This article argues that those interested in social policy should by definition be interested in issues of transport policy. It analyses data on road traffic fatalities and suggests, in the light of this evidence, that those who benefit least from the motor vehicle seem disproportionately likely, given their relative exposure to the risk, to die in road traffic accidents.     

澳门土地制度改变及其影响与纱纸契合法性问题

澳门基本法第七条规定,澳门境内的土地和自然资源,除在澳门特区成立前已依法确认的私有土地外,属于国家所有。土地制度的改变、土地所有权的改变,除了涉及澳门土地所属问题,还涉及澳门特区的成立和基本法的实施对澳门原有法律制度和司法程序的影响。具代表性的案例是去年澳门特区终审法院就观音堂地段的所有权和使用权的民事诉讼案所作出的裁决:在特区成立前未获依法确认为私有的土地,特区成立后就成为国家所有,也不能通过司法裁判确认这些土地的所有权或利用权为私有,无论有关诉讼是在特区成立之前还是之后提起的。也就是说,澳门从此再也不会有新的私人业权土地了,连"和平占有"也不能了。土地制度改变所带来的影响,可从上述观音堂地段的官司反映出来,未来可能还涉及棘手的离岛土地"纱纸契"的法律地位问题。本文以终审法院的有关裁决为例,进而讨论土地制度的改变对于土地"纱纸契"问题的影响。     

个人教育投资的风险收益测度

将教育资本分解成受教育程度和职业的各种组合,借鉴Markowiz的有效投资组合理论,计算Mincer收入方程中扰动项的均值—标准差来衡量投资风险收益,以此建立中国教育投资风险和收益之间的平衡关系,并且利用F检验衡量投资组合的均值方差张成。结果表明,有效的教育资本组合不仅与所接受教育程度有关,还与未来职业选择有关。在以受教育程度为高中和中等职业的基础上,高中(06)可以张成其他全部14个投资组合的均值方差边界。因此,个体和政府在进行教育投资时,都需要全面衡量投资组合的风险收益平衡问题。     

数词非范畴化现象考察

通过句法分布、语义变化、语篇功能及范畴转移等方面考察,数词在非范畴化过程中主要有以下几种表现:句法分布特征的扩展;语义丧失、转指、抽象泛化;语义、语篇功能被强化.非范畴化的结果必然带来范畴转移,而以词汇化或语法化为手段在词汇层面所遗留的痕迹成了这种"转移"最有力的佐证.     

Estimation and Inference Procedures for Semiparametric Distribution Models with Varying Linear‐Index

More flexible semiparametric linear‐index regression models are proposed to describe the conditional distribution. Such a model formulation captures varying effects of covariates over the support of a response variable in distribution, offers an alternative perspective on dimension reduction and covers a lot of widely used parametric and semiparameteric regression models. A feasible pseudo likelihood approach, accompanied with a simple and easily implemented algorithm, is further developed for the mixed case with both varying and invariant coefficients. By justifying some theoretical properties on Banach spaces, the uniform consistency and asymptotic Gaussian process of the proposed estimator are also established in this article. In addition, under the monotonicity of distribution in linear‐index, we develop an alternative approach based on maximizing a varying accuracy measure. By virtue of the asymptotic recursion relation for the estimators, some of the achievements in this direction include showing the convergence of the iterative computation procedure and establishing the large sample properties of the resulting estimator. It is noticeable that our theoretical framework is very helpful in constructing confidence bands for the parameters of interest and tests for the hypotheses of various qualitative structures in distribution. Generally, the developed estimation and inference procedures perform quite satisfactorily in the conducted simulations and are demonstrated to be useful in reanalysing data from the Boston house price study and the World Values Survey.     

Application of extreme value theory to the bec family of distributions

Arnold and Strauss (1988) derived a family of bivariate life distributions having the property that the conditional distributions are exponential. Asymptotic distributions for the marginal and bivariate extremes for this family of distributions are derived employing the asymptotic theory of extreme order statistics.     

Inferences on the lognormal mean for complete samples

In many engineering problems it is necessary to draw statistical inferences on the mean of a lognormal distribution based on a complete sample of observations. Statistical demonstration of mean time to repair (MTTR) is one example. Although optimum confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for the lognormal mean have been developed, they are difficult to use, requiring extensive tables and/or a computer. In this paper, simplified conservative methods for calculating confidence intervals or hypothesis tests for the lognormal mean are presented. In this paper, “conservative” refers to confidence intervals (hypothesis tests) whose infimum coverage probability (supremum probability of rejecting the null hypothesis taken over parameter values under the null hypothesis) equals the nominal level. The term “conservative” has obvious implications to confidence intervals (they are “wider” in some sense than their optimum or exact counterparts). Applying the term “conservative” to hypothesis tests should not be confusing if it is remembered that this implies that their equivalent confidence intervals are conservative. No implication of optimality is intended for these conservative procedures. It is emphasized that these are direct statistical inference methods for the lognormal mean, as opposed to the already well-known methods for the parameters of the underlying normal distribution. The method currently employed in MIL-STD-471A for statistical demonstration of MTTR is analyzed and compared to the new method in terms of asymptotic relative efficiency. The new methods are also compared to the optimum methods derived by Land (1971, 1973).     

On the asymptotic distribution of cramer-von mises one-sample test statistics under an alternative

The asymptotic normality of the Cramer-von Mises one-sample test statistic and one of its variants under an alternative cdf is demonstrated. The derivation herein is unique in that it does not require knowledge of the theory of weak convergence of probability measures defined on metrized function spaces, and thus is accessible to a broader class of students and practitioners.     

Optimal choice of sample fraction in univariate financial tail index estimation

This study introduces a technique to estimate the Pareto distribution of the stock exchange index by using the maximum-likelihood Hill estimator. Recursive procedures based on the goodness-of-fit statistics are used to determine the optimal threshold fraction of extreme values to be included in tail estimation. These procedures are applied to three indices in the Malaysian stock market which included the consideration of a drastic economic event such as the Asian financial crisis. The empirical results evidenced alternating varying behavior of heavy-tailed distributions in the regimes for both upper and lower tails.     

Unequal Regionalism: Regional Planning in China and England

This paper responds to the revival of regionalism in the past two decades by showing that such a re-emergence is unequal. Comparing the practice of regional planning in China and England, this paper has demonstrated that the party-state in China and the liberal-democratic state in England have responded differently to this revival and developed different framework for regional administration and planning. These variations have not only elaborated planners' concern about planning practice in a ‘context of difference’ from social dimension to geographical variations, but also echoed geographers' affirmation that global trends take on different characters in local setting.