Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

The complexity of diversity and importance for equitable philanthropy

The current U.S. climate of racial and social injustice has prompted a renewed call for diverse and equitable ways to rethink community philanthropy. Community foundations are vehicles for community philanthropy which offer vast benefits for social improvement and community development. The board of directors ensures these organizations fulfill their mission, making decisions on funding priorities and holding the organization functionally and fiscally responsible. Drawing on constructs of diversity and representative bureaucracy and a case study of Florida community foundations, we suggest that diversity is understood in different ways and the presence of diverse board members may be linked to advancing the interests of diverse communities and in achieving outcomes that assist in the needs of certain social groups. Increased understanding of diversity can improve foundation and philanthropic effectiveness and bring broader social change by promoting equity and social justice among community‐based philanthropic organizations.     

Regression models to dependence for exceedance

Extreme Value Theory (EVT) aims to study the tails of probability distributions in order to measure and quantify extreme events of maximum and minimum. In river flow data, an extreme level of a river may be related to the level of a neighboring river that flows into it. In this type of data, it is very common for flooding of a location to have been caused by a very large flow from an affluent river that is tens or hundreds of kilometers from this location. In this sense, an interesting approach is to consider a conditional model for the estimation of a multivariate model. Inspired by this idea, we propose a Bayesian model to describe the dependence of exceedance between rivers, where we considered a conditionally independent structure. In this model, the dependence between rivers is captured by modeling the excess marginally of one river as a consequence of linear functions of the other rivers. The results showed that there is a strong and positive connection between excesses in one river caused by the excesses of the other rivers.     

The implementation of digital technologies for operations management: a case study for manufacturing apps

Abstract

Manufacturing applications address business to business (B2B) with highly customised applications developed for specific requirements, offering highly specialised solution-oriented and service-based software components, systems, and digital tools that aim at a fast and accurate decision-making support system. The purpose of this paper is to describe the implementation of digital technologies for operations management using manufacturing or engineering apps (eApps), for product design and manufacturing processes. In particular, starting from the specific needs of two companies from mature European industries as automotive and food, this work depicts how this kind of solutions can support companies and improve their operations. In particular, related benefits and challenges faced for the full implementation of the developed tools are highlighted. Moreover a business model to exploit the manufacturing apps is also proposed. The business model proposed for the exploitation of the eApps supports the commercialisation of all the revenue streams offered by this rapidly growing sector taking into account the specific needs of the concerned stakeholders through a diversified value proposition.     

Multidimensional Targeting: Identifying Beneficiaries of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) have two main objectives: reducing poverty and increasing the human capital of children. To reach these objectives, transfers are given to poor households conditioned on investments in their children’s education, health, and nutrition. Targeting mechanisms used by CCTs have been generally successful in identifying the income poor but have not fared as well in identifying households that under-invest in human capital. These mechanisms do not consider the multidimensional aspect of poverty, even when composite measures are used, as they do not capture each dimension-specific deprivation. This paper proposes a multidimensional targeting approach to identifying beneficiaries that explicitly takes into consideration the multiple objectives of CCTs and the multiple deprivations of the poor household. Results indicate that the proposed multidimensional targeting methodology significantly improves the selection of households with children who are most deprived in the dimensions often relevant to CCTs. In the case of Mexico’s Oportunidades, ex-ante evaluation results indicate that the multidimensional identification of beneficiaries increases the impact of transfers on school attendance compared to alternative targeting models.     

Paying Enough but not Paying too Much When There is no Third-Party Endorsement: Executive Compensation and Individual Donations for Nonprofit Organizations

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - We examine whether third-party endorsement and institutional trust can mitigate the potential negative effects of higher...     

Structural equation modeling with time dependence: an application comparing Brazilian energy distributors

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - This study proposes a Bayesian structural equation model (SEM) to explore financial and economic sustainability indicators, considered by the Brazilian...     

Comparison of Ability Estimation Methods Using IRT for Tests with Different Degrees of Difficulty

The aim of the present study is to determine the dependence of the estimation of individual abilities obtained by item response theory (IRT) in relation to the degree of test difficulty and to evaluate how the estimation error may be affected by the estimation method employed. It is shown that abilities in the scale region with little test information are more efficiently estimated using the maximum weighted likelihood estimation (WLE) method, particularly abilities belonging to the upper part of the scale. The study also demonstrates the importance of largest tests for ability estimation.     

Implementation of customisation strategies in collaborative networks through an innovative Reference Framework

Consumer needs and expectations of specific target groups – such as elderly, obese, disabled or diabetic persons – are arising as challenging opportunities for European companies which are asked to supply innovative customised goods of high quality at affordable price. This is particularly true in the fashion as well as in the orthopaedic sector where there are many different competences to conjugate to offer dedicated products to the mentioned target groups. This paper aims at proposing a reference model to support companies in defining collaborative supply networks for customised production. In particular, this work describes the implementation of the developed model in a real case highlighting the changes implied at network level to address the need for fashionable and healthy products.