Differences in fertility behavior and uncertainty: an economic theory of the minority status hypothesis

We revisit the question of why fertility behaviors and educational decisions appear to vary systematically across ethnic groups. We assess the possibility that differences in fertility across groups remain even though their socio-economic characteristics are similar. More specifically, we consider that parents’ fertility decisions are affected by the uncertainty concerning the future economic status of their offspring. We assume that this uncertainty varies across groups and is linked to the size of the group one belongs to. We find theoretical support for the minority status hypothesis according to which members of large minorities usually have a higher fertility than those in the majority facing low potential for social mobility while small minorities have lower fertility.     

The Future Composition of the Canadian Labor Force: A Microsimulation Projection

This article charts the future transformations of the Canadian labor force population using a microsimulation projection model. The model takes into account differentials in demographic behavior and labor force participation of individuals according to their ethnocultural and educational characteristics. As a result of a rapid fall in fertility, the Canadian population is expected to age rapidly as baby boomers start to retire from the labor market in large numbers. In response to declining fertility, Canada raised its immigration intake at the end of the 1980s, and immigration is now the main driver of Canadian population growth. At the same time, immigrants to Canada are becoming more culturally diversified. Over the last half century, the main source regions have shifted from Europe to Asia. Results of the microsimulation show that Canada's labor force population will continue to increase, but at a slower rate than in the recent past. By 2031, almost one third of the country's total labor force could be foreign‐born, and almost all its future increase is expected to be among university graduates, while the less‐educated labor force is projected to decline.     

Evacuation Risks: A Tentative Approach for Quantification

This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person–km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 ^-8 deaths per person–km and 32 10^-8 injuries per person–km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10^-8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10^-8 injuries per person–km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations.     

«Se tenir au plus près ou reculer pour mieux voir?» Le réglage de la focale dans les sciences sociales

Cet article s'intéresse à la question des instruments et procédures d'observation auxquels peuvent avoir recours les chercheurs pour « saisir » le monde social. Il s'agira de réfléchir au problème de la distance que permettent, ou non, d'établir divers modes de recueil des données entre le chercheur et son objet d'étude. Dans ce contexte, il semble important de distinguer les méthodes qui permettent à l'observateur de se mettre à distance de ce qu'il regarde (reculer pour mieux voir), et celles qui le conduisent, au contraire, à s'en rapprocher (se tenir au plus près). Nous montrerons que si ces deux regards sur le monde social peuvent être considérés comme irréductibles, rien n'oblige pour autant à les considérer comme incompatibles. La relation entre les diverses méthodes peut se caractériser par une complémentarité et un éclairage mutuel.     

Analyzing Web pages visual scanpaths: between and within tasks variability

In this paper, we propose a new method for comparing scanpaths in a bottom-up approach, and a test of the scanpath theory. To do so, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 113 participants were invited to accomplish a set of tasks on two different websites. For each site, they had to perform two tasks that had to be repeated ounce. The data were analyzed using a procedure similar to the one used by Duchowski et al. [8]. The first step was to automatically identify, then label, AOIs with the mean-shift clustering procedure [19]. Then, scanpaths were compared two by two with a modified version of the string-edit method, which take into account the order of AOIs visualizations [2]. Our results show that scanpaths variability between tasks but within participants seems to be lower than the variability within task for a given participant. In other words participants seem to be more coherent when they perform different tasks, than when they repeat the same tasks. In addition, participants view more of the same AOI when they perform a different task on the same Web page than when they repeated the same task. These results are quite different from what predicts the scanpath theory.     

Escaping the Border,Debordering the Nature: Protected Areas,Participatory Management,and Environmental Security in Northern Patagonia (i.e. Chile and Argentina)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the management of protected areas in transboundary contexts and centres on the contemporary evolution of the border between Chile and Argentina in Northern Patagonia, which is a region that has witnessed the creation of numerous protected areas that are currently claimed by Mapuche organisations and communities as part of their customary territory. In response to these claims, both states have progressively integrated Mapuche communities into the management of protected areas through specific agreements. Many of these protected areas have also been included in a Transboundary Biosphere Reserve proposal for UNESCO. A new environmental governance model that includes the protection of indigenous peoples’ rights is under construction not only along but also across the border between Chile and Argentina. Therefore, we discuss how participatory management could be viewed as a tool for redefining borders by linking environmental security in protected areas to human security in Mapuche communities. The article seeks to understand the role of environmental governance in shaping and/or overcoming political boundaries, and analyse how strategic mobilisations of the environment can advance the achievement of competing territorial projects led by different actors in different periods.