A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

The Determinants of Racial Disparities in Perceived Job Insecurity: A Test of Three Perspectives

Why do African Americans report higher levels of perceived job insecurity than whites? We analyze data from the 1996 and 1998 General Social Survey to test alternative predictions from the compositional, inclusive‐discrimination, and dispositional perspectives concerning the sources of the racial gap in perceived insecurity. Results from ordered probit regressions provide most support for the inclusive‐discrimination perspective, which maintains that employment practices associated with “modern racial prejudice” induce perceived insecurity on a widespread and generalized basis among African Americans. Accordingly, compared to whites, African Americans experience perceived insecurity net of human capital credentials and job/labor market characteristics. Additional analyses provide one qualification to these findings: dynamics associated with the inclusive‐discrimination perspective are more pronounced in the private sector than the public sector.     

The Impact of Items and Anchors on Parent–Child Reports of Problem Behavior

Research has repeatedly demonstrated that parent and child reports of child behavior and emotional functioning often do not agree in terms of symptom severity or even symptom presence. Given the potential clinical impact that discrepant reports may have on the therapeutic process, a significant amount of research has addressed the factors influencing this observed discrepancy. Traditionally, this research has evaluated the impact of demographic factors on mean differences and obtained correlation coefficients between parent and child reports. The current research improves upon previous research in this area in two ways. First, the current research uses parent and child measures with identical rather than similar items as is commonly found in previous research. Second, the current research moves beyond identifying demographic influences on discrepant reports by explaining observed discrepancies in terms of differences in parent and child perceptions of typical child behavior.David Carlston and Benjamin Ogles are affiliated with Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, USA.Funding for this project was provided by the Ohio Department of Mental Health.     

司法现代化在我国农村的困境及出路

司法现代化在农村正遭遇着种种困境,这有其深刻的历史背景和现实基础。实现农村的司法现代化,一方面要对传统法律文化进行认真彻底的反思,肃清沿袭至今的消极影响;另一方面则应从制度上保障司法的公正性,在司法领域树立法律的权威。     

Sweatshops and third world living standards: Are the jobs worth the sweat?

Many studies have shown that multinational firms pay more than domestic firms in Third World countries. Economists who criticize sweatshops have responded that multinational firms’ wage data do not address whether sweatshop jobs are above average because many of these jobs are with domestic subcontractors. We compare apparel industry wages and the wages of individual firms accused of being sweatshops to measures of the standard of living in Third World economies. We find that most sweatshop jobs provide their workers an above average standard of living. The authors thank Jeffery Hummel, Charles Murray, Larry Pratt, and Edward Stringham for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Financial support from the American Institute for Economic Research is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Organisationsentwicklung als Thema von Erwachsenenbildung und Supervisionscurricula

Zusammenfassung  Der Beitrag beschreibt Planung, Verlauf und abschlie?ende Beurteilung eines gruppendynamischen Seminars, in dem für angehende Supervisorinnen und Supervisoren das Thema Organisations-Entwicklung dargestellt und vermittelt werden sollte. Ausgangspunkt war die Kl?rung des Inhaltsraums von Organisations-Entwicklung als geplantem sozialen Wandel, der auf sozialwissenschaftlicher Grundlage zielgerichtet, strategisch und mit Zeitperspektive in der Zusammenarbeit zwischen externer und interner Sach-, Prozess- und Entscheidungskompetenz durchgeführt wird. Als Ziele des Seminars wurden festgelegt, Organisations-Entwicklung als sozialwissenschaftliches Instrument zu begründen, Organisations-Entwicklung-Schritte zu konzipieren und sie kollegial zu kommunizieren. Darüber hinaus wurden Qualit?tskriterien für das Seminar formuliert: Praxisn?he, Kl?rung des Inhaltsraum Selbstorganisation, Selbststeuerung, Ressourcenaktivierung, Konfliktregulierung, Analyse des Gruppenprozesses, Nutzung von Feldkompetenz und Verhaltensmodellen, Etablierung von Feedbackschleifen, Koordination und Synergie, kollegialer Austausch und Kl?rung pers?nlicher Organisations-Entwicklungs-Fragen. Bausteine und Lernorte des Seminars waren das Plenum, die Lernpartnerschaft, das OE-Team, die Beobachterfunktion, die Tagesreflexion, die Sitzung Frage und Antwort, die Darstellung von Praxisf?llen, das Plenum-Feinsteuerung, die Analyse der Arbeitsprozesse des OE-Teams sowie Transfer und Auswertung. Der tats?chliche Verlauf des Seminars wird aus der Perspektive des Leiters kommentiert. Anhand von Verlaufsbeobachtungen und Teilnehmer?u?erungen wird der Eindruck begründet, dass diese Form des Vorgehens als lernintensiv, autonomief?rdernd und für die zu erwerbende Supervisionskompetenz als praxisrelevant betrachtet werden kann.

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This article describes the plantification, progress and final evaluation of a group-dynamic seminar for future supervisors in which the topic organization development was presented and introduced. The content of organization development was first defined as a planned social change which is executed based on social sciences in a goal-oriented, strategic way which considers the time perspective of the cooperation between external and internal specialised-, process- and decision competence. Goals of the seminar were to justify that organisation development is a social science tool, to plan organization development steps and to communicate them to peer seminar participants. Further more, the following quality criteria for the seminar were formulated: practice orientation, definition of self-organisation content, self regulation, resources activation, conflict regulation, group process analysis, field competence and behaviour models usage, feedback establishment, coordination and synergy, mutual peer exchange and finding answers to personal questions about organization development. The building blocks and learn places of the seminar were the plenary sessions, the learning partnership, the od-teams, the observer function, the day analysis, the questions and answers session, the case study presentation, the analysis of the work processes as well as transfer and evaluation. The progression of the seminar is commented from the point of view of the seminar leader. Progress observations and participant’s feedback justify the impression that this way to conceptualise provides an intensive learning experience, supports autonomy and provides relevant and practical supervision competence.

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J?rg Fengler ist Professor der Psychologie an der Universit?t zu K?ln, Heilp?dagogische Fakult?t. Arbeitsschwerpunkte sind u.a. P?dagogische und Klinische Psychologie. Er ist Herausgeber dieser Zeitschrift.     

谈鲁迅小说中的逻辑问题

本文运用演绎逻辑、归纳逻辑和辩证逻辑的基本方法 ,对鲁迅小说中的逻辑问题进行分析 ,得到一些有益的结论     

南充市城区已婚育龄妇女二孩生育意愿研究

2018年4—5月在四川省南充市城区采用便利抽样,以已婚且未育或已育一个小孩的育龄妇女为研究对象,采用自制匿名问卷,以面对面的形式收集资料,了解实施全面二孩政策后南充市育龄妇女的生育意愿,为南充市的人口研究提供参考依据。在213名调查对象中,56人(26.3%)有二孩生育意愿,140人(65.7%)无二孩生育意愿,17人(8.0%)不确定是否生育二孩。南充市被调查者的理想子女个数均值为1.46,意愿子女个数均值为1.27。不同文化程度(χ2=7.512)、配偶月收入(χ2=12.641)、理想子女数(χ2=66.401)、一孩性别(χ2=5.441)的育龄妇女间二孩生育意愿差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析显示,第一个孩子性别为女孩(OR=2.641,P=0.021)、丈夫月收入越高(OR=1.761,P=0.028)、理想子女数多于1个(OR=29.040,P<0.001)的育龄妇女更有意愿生育二孩。南充市城区二孩生育意愿处于较低水平,经济收入、理想子女数、一孩性别会影响育龄妇女的二孩生育意愿。全面二孩政策对于促进育龄妇女生育二孩的效应有限,应当建立相关的配套政策,以促进全面二孩政策的实施。