Competitive bidding — The probability of winning

A company bidding by sealed tender needs to know the relationship between their bid price and their chances of winning the contract. Previously published models for computing the probability of winning are examined and found to be inaccurate. The problem is reformulated, and a new general predictive model for computing the probability of winning is developed. The method of computation is illustrated by a simple worked example.     

Best linear predictors for factor scores

From the literature three types of predictors for factor scores are available. These are characterized by the constraints: linear, linear conditionally unbiased, and linear correlation preserving. Each of these constraints generates a class of predictors. Best predictors are defined in terms of Lowner's partial matrix order applied to matrices of mean square error of prediction. It is shown that within the first two classes a best predictor exists and that it does not exist in the third.     

The Families and Democracy and Citizen Health Care Project

This article describes and updates the work of the Families and Democracy and Citizen Health Care Project, which engages with community concerns in order to effect change on many system levels. The project draws on family therapy's tradition of interest in larger social issues and adds democratic public theory and community organizing strategies. Since 1999 we have developed 14 citizen initiatives with a wide range of groups on a diverse set of problem areas. We describe the overall project and several of its initiatives, we address research and evaluation issues, and we outline opportunities for marriage and family therapists to learn how to do this work in their own communities.     

A pragmatic adaptive enrichment design for selecting the right target population for cancer immunotherapies

One of the challenges in the design of confirmatory trials is to deal with uncertainties regarding the optimal target population for a novel drug. Adaptive enrichment designs (AED) which allow for a data-driven selection of one or more prespecified biomarker subpopulations at an interim analysis have been proposed in this setting but practical case studies of AEDs are still relatively rare. We present the design of an AED with a binary endpoint in the highly dynamic setting of cancer immunotherapy. The trial was initiated as a conventional trial in early triple-negative breast cancer but amended to an AED based on emerging data external to the trial suggesting that PD-L1 status could be a predictive biomarker. Operating characteristics are discussed including the concept of a minimal detectable difference, that is, the smallest observed treatment effect that would lead to a statistically significant result in at least one of the target populations at the interim or the final analysis, respectively, in the setting of AED.     

Productivity of highly skilled immigrants: economists in the postwar period

Prior work finds declining immigrant quality in the postwar period that is linked to source-country and skill-composition changes associated with the 1965 Immigration Act. This paper uses a unique panel of foreign- and native-born American Economic Association members to show that the highly skilled experienced a similar shift away from European migrants toward those from Asia. However, the findings do not indicate that this change in source-country composition has been accompanied by a decline in quality; rather, the most recent cohorts of foreign-born economists appear to be more productive than their native counterparts.     

Rolling with the shakes: an insight into teenagers’ perceptions of recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes

Natural disasters are harmful worldwide events that inflict multiple psychosocial impacts on disaster-exposed individuals. A significant proportion of affected individuals are teenagers (13–18 years old) who, compared with adults, have been historically overlooked in disaster research. The literature is particularly sparse concerning teenagers’ recovery from natural disasters, specifically what recovery means to them and the contributing factors towards their positive recovery. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to gain deeper insight into this largely unexplored area by conducting five focus groups with teenagers (16–18 years) who experienced at least one of the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes since and including the initial September 2010 earthquake. This study directly asked teenagers about their recovery over the three years after the initial earthquakes, with data being analysed using thematic analysis. Two main themes were identified: (1) perceptions of recovery, with three sub-themes (i) knowledge and being less frightened, (ii) talking about the earthquakes and (iii) shift in perspectives; and (2) contributing factors to recovery, with three sub-themes (i) participation in the community response, (ii) returning to school and (iii) the rebuild of Christchurch. These factors provide insight into how we can better support the recovery process for disaster-exposed teenagers to reduce long-term distress.     

A common-features analysis of Amsterdam and London financial markets during the eighteenth century

We examine the financial linkage between the London and Amsterdam financial markets using stock prices recorded in each market over the period 1723-94 in conjunction with tests for common trends, cycles, and regime shifts. These tests reveal a surprising degree of integration between the markets as their prices move together in both the short and long run. Moreover, shocks to the assets translate quickly and accurately between markets. It also appears that Dutch investment did not destabilize London markets and stock prices in London were the primary determinant of prices in Amsterdam.     

The influence of individual,marital, and family therapy on high utilizers of health care

Research has shown that people reduce their use of health care after individual, marital, and family therapy, which is known as the "offset effect." However, little research has been done to learn if high utilizers of health care reduce health care usage after therapy. Medical records of research participants (n = 65) from a health maintenance organization (HMO) were randomly selected and examined for 6 months before, during, and after therapy. Persons who received individual, marital, or family therapy all reduced their health care use after therapy, with the largest reductions coming from those participants who had some form of conjoint therapy.     

Improved decision making about suspected child maltreatment: Results of structuring the decision process

ORBA is a method that aims to improve decision making about suspected child maltreatment in Advice and Reporting Centres of Child Abuse and Neglect (ARCCAN). It structures the process of judging and deciding and makes it explicit by distinguishing separate steps, and by identifying the necessary information to consider and the judgments and decisions to be made in each step. In this study it was investigated whether decision making in ARCANNs has become more systematic and transparent, since the implementation of ORBA. The contents of 100 case records from 2010 were analyzed, after ORBA had been implemented in all agencies, to see to what extent these records contained relevant information, and to what extent process steps and rationales for decisions could be identified. This was compared with the contents of 60 records of three agencies from 2005, before ORBA was implemented. Analyses showed that in 2010 records more often contained relevant information and process steps that ORBA prescribes than in 2005. It was salient however that rationales for judgments and decisions were still often absent in 2010. While after ORBA's introduction the process has clearly become more systematic and more transparent, compared to 2005, more improvements are still called for, specifically in explicitly motivating decisions. Explanations and implications of our results are discussed.