American Public Opinion in the 1930s and 1940s: The Analysis of Quota-Controlled Sample Survey Data

The 1930s saw the birth of mass survey research in America.Large public polling companies, such as Gallup and Roper, begansurveying the public about a variety of important issues ona monthly basis. These polls contain information on public opinionquestions of central importance to political scientists, historians,and policymakers, yet these data have been largely overlookedby modern researchers due to problems arising from the datacollection methods. In this article I provide a strategy toproperly analyze the public opinion data of the 1930s and 1940s.I first describe the quota-control methods of survey researchprevalent during this time. I then detail the problems introducedthrough the use of quota-control techniques. Next, I describespecific strategies that researchers can employ to amelioratethese problems in data analysis at both the aggregate and individuallevels. Finally, I use examples from several pubic opinion studiesin the early 1940s to show how the methods of analysis laidout in this article enable us to utilize historical public opiniondata.     

The Polls--Review: Public Opinion Research and Support for the Iraq War

Professors Peter Feaver, Christopher Gelpi, and Jason Reifler'stheory of the determinants of public support for war has receiveda great deal of attention among academics, journalists, andpolicymakers. They argue that support for war hinges on initialsupport for military action and the belief in the success ofthe war. In this review, we take a critical and constructiveview of their work, focusing on methodological concerns. Wediscuss the dependent variable used by the authors—individualcasualty tolerance—and argue that it is an insufficientmeasure of war support. We also make the case that their independentvariables of interest—initial support for war and evaluationof war success—may, in fact, be best understood as indicatorsof latent support for the war more generally. Finally, we discussthe need for more research into the determinants of supportfor war, focusing on core values and elite rhetoric as potentialvariables for continued and future study.