Individual Actual or Perceived Property Flood Risk: Did it Predict Evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in North Carolina, 2003?

Individual perception of risk has consistently been considered an important determinant of hurricane evacuation in published studies and reviews. Adequate risk assessment is informed by environmental and social cues, as well as evacuation intentions and past disaster experience. This cross‐sectional study measured perceived flood risk of 570 residents of three coastal North Carolina counties, compared their perception with actual risk determined by updated flood plain maps, and determined if either was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in 2003. Census blocks were stratified by flood zone and 30 census blocks were randomly selected from each flood zone. Seven interviews were conducted at random locations within selected blocks. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to produce crude and adjusted risk differences. Neither the designated flood zone of the parcel where the home was located nor the residents' perceived flood risk was associated with evacuation from Hurricane Isabel in the bivariate analysis. In the multivariable analysis, intention to evacuate and home type were important confounders of the association between actual risk and evacuation. The belief that one is at high risk of property damage or injury is important in evacuation decision making. However, in this study, while coastal residents' perceived risk of flooding was correlated with their actual flood risk, neither was associated with evacuation. These findings provide important opportunities for education and intervention by policymakers and authorities to improve hurricane evacuation rates and raise flood risk awareness.     

Optimal mixed-model sequencing for balanced assembly lines

This paper describes an algorithm for solving optimally, the mixed-model sequencing problem when assembly line stations are balanced for each model. An optimal sequence is obtained with the minimization of the overall assembly line length for zero station idle time.The algorithm incorporates two basic steps. The first involves a search procedure that generates all cycle sequences; i.e. sequences having identical ‘start’ and ‘finish’ positions and whose work content can be executed within a defined station length. The second step uses integer programming (IP) to determine the number and combination of the various cycle sequences, such that the production demand is satisfied.     

Capacity for Stakeholder Participation in Recovery Planning

It is generally accepted that meaningful participation by a representative, well-informed public contributes to a better plan. We surveyed the lead official responsible for the development of recovery plans in a sample of US Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties to determine capacity for stakeholder participation. We report on a variety of engagement techniques that were positively associated with an increase in participation in recovery plan development. We also link increased participation with better plan quality scores in plan quality principles. Investing human and fiscal resources in participation can increase involvement in the planning process and improve recovery plan quality.     

On spatiotemporal prediction for on-line monitoring data

Spatiotemporal prediction is of interest in many areas of applied statistics, especially in environmental monitoring with on-line data information. At first, this article reviews the approaches for spatiotemporal modeling in the context of stochastic processes and then introduces the new class of spatiotemporal dynamic linear models. Further, the methods for linear spatial data analysis, universal kriging and trend surface prediction, are related to the method of spatial linear Bayesian analysis. The Kalman filter is the preferred method for temporal linear Bayesian inferences. By combining the Kalman filter recursions with the trend surface predictor and universal kriging predictor, the prior and posterior spatiotemporal predictors for the observational process are derived, which form the main result of this article. The problem of spatiotemporal linear prediction in the case of unknown first and second order moments is treated as well.     

Distance as a barrier to using a fitness-program benefit for managed Medicare enrollees

This study evaluated the effect of distance on the likelihood of initiating and maintaining regular use of a fitness-program benefit in a population of managed Medicare seniors. We studied 8,162 participants and nonparticipants in a managed-care fitness-program benefit: a structured group exercise program or an unstructured health-club membership. Participants in both programs lived significantly closer to facilities than nonparticipants did (structured, p < .001; unstructured, p = .017). Participants living closer to unstructured-program sites attended more frequently than those farther away (p = .008). Distance was not correlated with frequency of use in the structured program (p = .49). Collectively, these analyses demonstrate that distance is related to uptake and, in some cases, continued use of a fitness-program benefit. Health systems providing fitness-program benefits as a way to increase physical activity levels of their plan members should consider location of program facilities in relation to members' home addresses to maximize use of the benefit.