THE EFFECT AND COST OF FORECAST ERROR BIAS FOR MULTIPLE-STAGE PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS

This paper examines forecast error with an intention not to minimize forecast error so much as to bias the resultant error in order to achieve better managerial results. Much work has been accomplished by other researchers toward the goal of minimizing forecast error—sometimes by the use of sophisticated forecasting techniques. The results of this paper indicate that manipulating forecast error bias may be the better managerial strategy as opposed to going to great lengths to minimize forecast error. Subject Areas: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, Capacity Planning, and Production/Operations Management.     

“Either Side of Delphy Bridge”: A deep mapping project evoking and engaging the lives of older adults in rural North Cornwall

This article reports on work to date by an arts practice-led research team exploring older adults’ conceptions of, and connectivity with, the physical, social and cultural landscapes in which they locate themselves. The team is based at the Department of Art and Design, University of the West of England (UWE) and has conducted fieldwork, interviews and small-scale interactions in an area of rural North Cornwall with a view to “deep mapping” older adults’ “lived landscapes” using a variety of practical methods derived from creative arts practices, critical reflection on deep mapping, ethnographic approaches, and referencing a range of theoretical positions. The project forms part of a work package within “Grey and Pleasant Land? An interdisciplinary exploration of the connectivity of older people in rural civic society” (abbreviated below as GaPL), funded by the UK Cross-Research Council ‘New Dynamics of Ageing’ Programme. In what follows we will describe and critically discuss the fieldwork undertaken and the various ways in which the performative interactions and the creative multimedia evocations that draw on the team’s interactions with older people might extend the growing dialogue between deep mapping, visual and other innovative ethnographies, and critical gerontology.     

Competing Frameworks in Planning for the Aged in the Growth Corridors of Melbourne

The Ageing in the Growth Corridors Project was initiated as a partnership between the University of Melbourne and the Department of Health in the Northwest Metropolitan Region of Melbourne, Australia. It involved a research team working with six project officers appointed to stimulate development in relation to an aging population in the sprawling outer metropolitan growth corridors. This article identifies the key lessons learned in terms of project implementation relating to attitudinal and structural barriers to the development of an age-friendly environment in areas of rapid urban growth. The findings illustrate some of the dilemmas raised by competing program conceptions, a dynamic and changing federal/state policy context, and local resource and strategic management constraints. The partnership with the university, nevertheless, provided a point of stability and continuity for the project officers in implementing their mandate.     

The impact of an industry-based rehabilitation programme

An industry specific rehabilitation programme was developed to cater for the special requirements of the New Zealand logging industry. The aims of the rehabilitation programme were to: reduce the amount of time lost due to injury, reduce the number of lost time injuries, and overall, to reduce the direct costs associated with logging injuries. The programme was field-tested on a logging company. The rehabilitation programme was effective for reducing the average amount of time lost due to injury and also for reducing the cost of the injuries. Although there were a number of factors that may have had an impact upon these results, this research provides evidence that this rehabilitation programme was effective for reducing the severity and cost of injury to the New Zealand logging industry.     

Some aspects of inflation and published accounts

Company accounts are at present drafted in an uneasy compromise between different objectives. It is not yet generally appreciated that no single figure or set of figures can sum up the whole financial state of an enterprise. The basic tools of financial management are short and long-run cash projections and the reports of actual flows which monitor these. The problem in drafting annual accounts so that they will help shareholders and others to make decisions is that financial reality requires a look into the future and this in turn calls for subjective judgement. But the more realistic are the accounts in this sense, the less susceptible are they to objective audit. Inflation adds a further level of distortion, but the effects of this can be brought out in a relatively simple way by making corrections based on movements in a general index of prices. Although there are considerable practical difficulties it seems likely that a more fundamental improvement would be the introduction of a ‘current value’ or modified ‘replacement cost’ approach to ordinary accounting in addition to (but not in place of) the general index inflation correction.     

Using Generational Intelligence to Examine Community Care Work between Younger and Older Adults

Exploring the factors that contribute to sustainable forms of an intergenerational relationship is becoming an important conceptual and practical challenge, not least because of the growing need for an aged care workforce that is both motivated and suitably trained. Generational intelligence is a means of examining interaction between younger and older people which has been applied to community care settings. Dimensions of generational intelligence include recognising and valuing generational differences, finding common ground, plus negotiating social and practical outcomes from the situation. A case study plus a series of qualitative interviews are used to examine the value of this approach both as a means of exploring the processes involved in generational exchange and in providing recommendations for work preparation and training. It is suggested that intergenerational relations have been a missing factor in the understanding of sustainable care and that in future, service delivery should not simply be analysed as comprising professional and lay perspectives but also as containing generationally distinctive perspectives that require negotiation.     

Mistreatment of Older People in the United Kingdom: Findings from the First National Prevalence Study

There have been few national studies of the prevalence of elder mistreatment (abuse and neglect) in private households. This article provides an overview of the UK National Prevalence Study of Elder Mistreatment that took place in 2006. It addressed 2,111 respondents in four countries who answered a face-to-face survey questionnaire. The achieved sample was weighted to be representative of the UK older population. Of respondents, 2.6% reported mistreatment by family members, close friends, or care workers. The predominant type of reported mistreatment was neglect (1.1%) followed by financial abuse (0.6%), with 0.4% of respondents reporting psychological abuse, 0.4% physical abuse, and 0.2% sexual abuse. Women were significantly more likely to have experienced mistreatment than men, but there were gender differences according to type of abuse and perpetrator characteristics. Divergent patterns were found for neglect, financial, and interpersonal abuse. Further analysis of the data indicated that the likelihood of mistreatment varied with socioeconomic position and health status.     

Age-Friendly Organisations: The Role of Organisational Culture and the Participation of Older Workers

Population ageing is a global phenomenon that has become prominent in international discourse over the past few decades. This discussion is often coupled with the economic implications of population ageing through reduced workforce participation of the older age group, increased government spending on health and pensions and reduced government income from taxes. A means of mitigating the economic costs of ageing is to lift the proportion of older individuals in the workforce and prolong working lives. This brings to the forefront an important point regarding the need for organisations to undertake changes so as to better enable the employment of older individuals and to cater for an ageing workforce. This article critically reflects on age-friendly organisational practices that can have an impact on the recruitment and retention of older individuals. It further contends that there is a need to develop a deeper understanding of factors that constitute an organisational culture geared towards the older demographic, in order for strategies and practices directed at older workers to be effective. Through this argument, the authors consolidate the literature on age-friendly organisational practices and propose a conceptual model of an age-friendly organisational culture, drawing from both functionalist and interpretivist paradigms.