A Forecast Model for Unemployment by Education

ABSTRACT We present a dynamic forecast model for the labour market: demand for labour by education and the distribution of labour by education among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously. The model is derived from a simple behavioural equation based on a strong relationship between the “strength” in the struggle for jobs of an educational group, and the change in relative supply. This relationship proves to be significant in the data. Furthermore, when used to forecast employment by education on real data, the model predicts reasonably well even for educational groups, where the initial forecast year is a change point for unemployment.     

Walking a tightrope: reflections on police gatekeeping roles in suicide research in Ghana

Engaging non-conventional gatekeepers such as the police presents both promises and perils. Although studies have relied on police data for researching suicide and other sensitive topics in Africa, there is a paucity of literature that explores or reflects on police gatekeeping and its research implications. This paper presents authors’ reflections on police gatekeeping in a qualitative suicide study in Accra, Ghana. The main observation is that the process was double-edged. On the one hand, it led to field delays and costs, (mis)apprehensions and positionality problems, and trust building challenges. On the other hand, it vouched for research(er) credibility, provided therapeutic openings, and facilitated the viability of research with the suicide bereaved. Sensitivity to research context, sensitising the police, and reinforcing ‘therapeutic-research discourse’ with participants, are recommended means for aligning participants’ goals to research goals and for achieving therapeutic disclosures.     

STUDENTS WHO CHOOSE AND THE SCHOOLS THEY LEAVE: Examining Participation in Intradistrict Transfers

Data from one urban school district is analyzed to examine equity‐based arguments about school choice as they pertain to intradistrict transfer policies. We specifically examine which factors influence the propensity for parents to participate in choice, and how choice schools differ from the schools that students are zoned to attend. We find that advantaged and disadvantaged parents make similar choices in that they are both likely to choose more affluent schools with better academic records than the schools they are zoned to attend. However, these choices operate in different spheres, as advantaged parents choose the most affluent schools with the best academic records, and disadvantaged parents choose away from the least affluent schools with the worst academic records to schools that are slightly better.     

Validation of the 12 Item Short form Health Survey in a Sample from Region Central Jutland

In 2010 the Danish regions started a new program of public health surveillance in collaboration with the national and local health authorities using the short form health survey (SF-12) for measuring and reporting on health related quality of life among the Danish adult population. The instrument has not, however, been validated in a Danish setting. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and validity of the physical component summary (PCS) and the mental component summary (MCS) score of the 12-item short form health survey (SF-12) in a sample from Central Denmark Region. A total of 26,397 persons above the age of 25 were included in the analyses. Reliability was assessed by Cronbach’s α. The validity was assessed using known-groups comparisons and convergent validity. The factor structure was investigated through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The Cronbach’s α showed high reliability with a score of 0.90 and 0.85 for PCS and MCS respectively. The SF-12 discriminated well with respect to gender, age, educational status and long term illness. Individual items correlated higher with own hypothesized scales than with other scales and summary measures corroborating the convergent validity. The EFA gave a two-factor structure. Irrespective of the chosen rotation method (varimax and oblimin) the items related to PCS loaded on one factor and the items related to MCS loaded on another factor. The factor structure was validated with acceptable model-fit values in CFA. The SF-12 instrument is a reliable and valid measure of health related quality of life among the population of Central Denmark Region.     

Place making,grassroots organizing,and rural protest: A case study of Anahim Lake,British Columbia

Contemporary rural social movements bring diverse interest groups and stakeholders together at the local scale in the pursuit of common visions and goals, often against the backdrop of an external threat. The challenge for a movement's leaders is to negotiate and design a rural agenda that resonates with this complex constituency. One way to approach this problem is to construct and politicize a local sense of place as a means of rallying insiders against outside forces and pressures. This article explores the place-making activities of rural leaders operating within a complex social setting through an analysis of a grassroots social movement in Anahim Lake, British Columbia. The study uses the concept of the “place frame” to explore how Anahim's activists created a local discursive framework that enabled them to bridge dissimilar environmental values and practices within the community. The removal of external pressures following protest, however, saw the dissolution of this alignment. In documenting this process, the article contributes to a fuller understanding of the significance of place in grassroots protest and activism.     

An assessment of the one-child policy in China from 1980 to 1985

An analysis of second and third live birth conceptions, from January 1980 to July 1984, in the two Chinese provinces of Hebei and Shaanxi from the In-Depth Fertility Surveys showed: (1) in urban areas third live birth conceptions were quite rare, and higher economic development was associated with lower second live birth conception risks; and (2) in the countryside the preference for sons was a strong predictor of both second and third live birth conceptions, and higher household income was followed generally by lower risks of second and third live birth conceptions, while other socioeconomic factors had little effect.Des enquêtes approfondies sur la fécondité de deux provinces chinoises de Hebei et Shaanxi ont porté sur la période s'étendant de janvier 1980 à juillet 1984. Une analyse des naissances vivantes de rangs deux et trois montre que: (a) dans les zones urbaines les naissances de range trois sont très rares; de même, plus le développement économique est élevé plus le risque de naissances de rang deux est bas; (2) dans les zones rurales la préférence pour les garçons permet de bien prévoir les naissances vivantes de rang deux et de rang trois; également un revenu plus élevé du ménage entraîne généralement moins de naissances de rangs deux et trois, tandis que d'autres facteurs socio-économiques ont une action négligeable sur cette fécondité.

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An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Sociological Association in San Francisco, August 9–13, 1989.     

The Impact of Occupational Sex Segregation on Family Businesses: The Case of American Harness Racing

Previous research on occupational sex segregation agrees that the workplace is not an isolated world but instead influences, and is influenced by, other spheres of social life. Identifying specific social factors both internal and external to the workplace, and how these may interact, can provide deeper insights into how occupational sex segregation is created and maintained. This study focuses on individual family businesses in American harness horse racing, a previously unexamined and highly sex‐segregated industry, and provides insights in how vertical and horizontal sex segregation may develop in family businesses. The findings show how the belief that married couples cannot debate and resolve work‐related conflicts without undue strain on their personal relationship leads some of these couples to organize their work into gendered tasks and workspaces, contributing to the maintenance of vertical segregation in the trainer position. The implications for segregation of other solutions, such as operating separate businesses, or working for another business, are less clear.     

Work and Care Strategies of European Families: Similarities or National Differences?

This paper examines the work and care strategies chosen by full‐time working families with children in Finland, Italy, Portugal and the UK. It asks whether European families in different countries, facing the same problems of balancing employment and childcare responsibilities, respond to their situations in similar ways. An increase in dual‐earner families where both parents work full‐time represents a general employment trend in today's Europe. Also, within families with children, such employment patterns are now more common than they were previously. National differences may therefore not any longer be as marked as often indicated by country‐based surveys. The qualitative data from the SOCCARE Project offer a way to examine this issue. The focal point of the paper is to make a comparative analysis of couples in similar work and care situations. Using their working hours as the common denominator, this paper analyses their daily childcare arrangements and how these are impacted by gender roles, working schedules, flexibility of workplace, income levels, parents’ educational background and availability of care facilities. The paper concludes that European families’ work and care strategies have many similarities whereby national differences may not be as marked as often indicated by contemporary research.     

Caregiver Decision-Making: Household Response to Child Illness in Sub-Saharan Africa

We draw upon a framework outlining household recognition and response to child illness proposed by Colvin et al. (Soc Sci Med 86:66–78, 2013) to examine factors predictive of treatment sought for a recent child illness. In particular, we model whether no treatment, middle layer treatment (traditional healer, pharmacy, community health worker, etc.), or biomedical treatment was sought for recent episodes of diarrhea, fever, or cough. Based on multinomial, multi-level analyses of Demographic and Health Surveys from 19 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we determine that if women have no say in their own healthcare, they are unlikely to seek treatment in response to child illness. We find that women in sub-Saharan Africa need healthcare knowledge, the ability to make healthcare decisions, as well as resources to negotiate cost and travel, in order to access biomedical treatment. Past experience with medical services such as prenatal care and a skilled birth attendant also increases the odds that biomedical treatment for child illness is sought. We conclude that caregiver decision-making in response to child illness within households is critical to reducing child morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.