Signal extraction goodness-of-fit diagnostic tests under model parameter uncertainty: Formulations and empirical evaluation

We present a time-domain goodness-of-fit (gof) diagnostic test that is based on signal-extraction variances for nonstationary time series. This diagnostic test extends the time-domain gof statistic of Maravall (2003 Maravall, A. (2003). A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series. Memorandum, Bank of Spain. Available at http://www.bde.es/servicio/software/tramo/diagnosticsamb.pdf [Google Scholar]) by taking into account the effects of model parameter uncertainty, utilizing theoretical results of McElroy and Holan (2009 McElroy, T., Holan, S. (2009). A local spectral approach for assessing time series model misspeci?cation. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100:604–621.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We demonstrate that omitting this correction results in a severely undersized statistic. Adequate size and power are obtained in Monte Carlo studies for fairly short time series (10 to 15 years of monthly data). Our Monte Carlo studies of finite sample size and power consider different combinations of both signal and noise components using seasonal, trend, and irregular component models obtained via canonical decomposition. Details of the implementation appropriate for SARIMA models are given. We apply the gof diagnostic test statistics to several U.S. Census Bureau time series. The results generally corroborate the output of the automatic model selection procedure of the X-12-ARIMA software, which in contrast to our diagnostic test statistic does not involve hypothesis testing. We conclude that these diagnostic test statistics are a useful supplementary model-checking tool for practitioners engaged in the task of model-based seasonal adjustment.     

Toward an index of gender equality

This paper develops a Gender Equality Index (GEI) that is modelled in its thinking and implementation on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The GEI was computed using annual Ontario data on seven socioeconomic indicators for the years 1975 to 1984. The analysis supports the following conclusions: (1) that it is possible to indentify a subset of indicators that have face validity as measures of relative gender equality; (2) that factor analysis is a useful means for evaluating the construct validity of gender equality; (3) that the resulting GEI reveals a strong upward trend toward gender equality in the latter half of the 1970's and the early 1980's and (4) that this trend has flattened in 1984.     

Review article: Slavery and slavishness in Russia and America

Hellie, Richard, Slavery in Russia 1450–1725. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982. xix, 776 pp.

Kolchin, Peter. Unfree Labor: American Slavery and Russian Serfdom. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1987. xiv, 517 pp.     

Socio-economic inequalities in mortality for Asian people: New Zealand Census-Mortality Study, 1996–2004

Journal of Population Research - This study examines the association of socio-economic factors with mortality for the Asian population, and compares with those of the European/Other group....     

Understanding the determinants of consent for linkage of administrative health data with a longitudinal survey

Abstract

The Survey of Families, Income and Employment (SoFIE) is a panel income study with a health component, including data linkage to national health databases. This paper investigates factors that predict consent to data linkage. SoFIE participants were asked permission to link their SoFIE records to administrative health data in Wave 3 of data collection. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association of sociodemographic variables with consent to record linkage. Of Wave 3 participants 79.4% consented to health record linkage. Taking into account prior attrition, consent and matching the overall participation rate was 60.9%. Participants reporting Māori, Pacific and Asian ethnicity had lower odds of consenting. There was a strong relationship between the presence of co-morbid disease and consent to linkage. This study has shown that consent to link health information to survey records was high and the survey provides a rich and unique dataset for longitudinal analyses.     

A Model for Distance Education Delivery

Distance education, which has existed for many years, has become even more popular as a result of recent technological advances. This article proposes a model for distance education as a means for schools of social work to deliver curricula to students who face problems enrolling in campus-based or off-campus sites. The components of the model—videotapes, an on-site discussion leader/field instructor, computers, and direct observation by field instructors—fit well within the general requirements of group interaction in the delivery of a social work curriculum. Problems that may arise using the model include the extra time and training required for faculty to produce videotapes, the recruitment of discussion leaders/field instructors, and how to structure the delivery system so students can practice interviewing, assessment, and other abstract concepts. The author also suggests means for evaluating the model as well as policy changes universities and schools of social work may need to effect to successfully implement distance education programming.     

Characteristics of homeless jail inmates: Implications for social work

This study set out to validate the hypothesis (belief) that homeless people were likely to commit minor offenses as solutions to their conditions. Jails, and maybe prisons, would provide three meals a day, a place to sleep, and minimal health care-especially during the winter months. Instead, the data did not support the hypothesis. Contrary to the reported practices of some homeless people in Colorado who are described as committing non-serious but timed offenses to go to jail, it found a homeless population in jail who give a literal interpretation to the political phrase the invisible people. They were not in jail because they were homeless, but instead they were in jail for serious crimes (murder, rape, drugs, robbery) and their homelessness was a side fact. Since it was not likely that this group would seek to address or resolve their homelessness, it was recommended that jail social workers identify their needs to them, track them into social welfare networks, with a designated contact person, prior to their release.     

Migration and Pacific Mortality: Estimating Migration Effects on Pacific Mortality Rates Using Bayesian Models

Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand–born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand’s immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.     

Public marketing: A suggested policy planning paradigm for community development in the city

We are witnessing a profound and long term redirection of federal program strategies in the area of social welfare and economic development from planning and program design at the national level toward a model that places the city at the center of the development process. Community development is becoming an increasingly important methodology in this transfer of authority from the federal to the local level. However, integrating current community development methods into the policy process of local government has not been fully thought out by academicians or practitioners. This paper suggests that a public marketing model based on marketing principles provides a potential framework for incorporating existing community development approaches into a strategy that relates to the current demands on cities for public accountability while providing city officials a rational framework for the value of public goods and services in a current competitive market place for the allocation of resources between public and private consumption.