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Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards. 相似文献
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Caitlin Ward Jacob Oleson J. Bruce Tomblin Elizabeth Walker 《Journal of applied statistics》2022,49(2):449
Psychometric growth curve modeling techniques are used to describe a person’s latent ability and how that ability changes over time based on a specific measurement instrument. However, the same instrument cannot always be used over a period of time to measure that latent ability. This is often the case when measuring traits longitudinally in children. Reasons may be that over time some measurement tools that were difficult for young children become too easy as they age resulting in floor effects or ceiling effects or both. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for such a scenario. Within the Bayesian model we combine information from multiple instruments used at different age ranges and having different scoring schemes to examine growth in latent ability over time. The model includes between-subject variance and within-subject variance and does not require linking item specific difficulty between the measurement tools. The model’s utility is demonstrated on a study of language ability in children from ages one to ten who are hard of hearing where measurement tool specific growth and subject-specific growth are shown in addition to a group level latent growth curve comparing the hard of hearing children to children with normal hearing.KEYWORDS: Bayesian hierarchical models, psychometric modeling, language ability, growth curve modeling, longitudinal analysis 相似文献
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This study investigates the impact of service diversification on the rate and mode of firm growth in professional service firms (PSFs). Drawing on the extant PSF literature, we identify differing views regarding the growth impact of service diversification. Specifically, some scholars suggest that the external client benefits associated with service diversification should allow PSFs to expand revenues at a rapid pace and pursue less merger and acquisition activity, whereas others imply that increased diversification can cause internal challenges with respect to learning costs, coordination and innovation that can limit the rate of revenue growth and encourage more mergers and acquisitions. We test these competing views using longitudinal data on 137 accounting firms and cross-sectional data on 125 law firms and find that service diversification is negatively associated with the rate of firm revenue growth and positively associated with the use of mergers and acquisitions. 相似文献
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Lusofonia or lusophony is often defined as an identity shared by people in areas that were once colonised by Portugal, which in Africa include Angola, Cabo Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique and São Tomé and Príncipe. Lusofonia assumes that in these places people share something – a language, certainly, but also a history and culture rooted in the Iberian Peninsula. In some ways it is a re-articulation of Gilberto Freyre’s lusotropicalismo, the idea that Portuguese were more adaptable than other Europeans to tropical climates and cultures and created more multicultural colonial communities. Those who espouse lusofonia often have a political agenda – the strengthening of the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries. In this article, we argue that, like lusotropicalismo, lusofonia is a dream; it is not rooted in a historical reality. It is luso-centric in that it ignores the power and persistence of local cultures and gives undue weight to Portuguese influence. With regard to Africa, lusofonia’s agenda is elite driven and assumes the inevitability of modernity and globalisation. And we demonstrate that it was through Upper Guinean institutions and languages, and not colonial ones, that community and fellowship were most commonly fostered in the past, as they are fostered today. Those seeking the roots of lusofonia cannot, then, look to this period of Portuguese–African engagement in Upper Guinea. There Portuguese embraced “black ways.” They operated in a peculiar multicultural space in which people possessed fluid and flexible identities. Portugal did not create that space. Lusofonia has not been the foundation for cultural unity. Rather, unity has been found in localised institutions and in Crioulo. In Guinea-Bissau, lusofonia is not an indigenous movement. If it is anything, it is the stuff of elites and foreigners and is not rooted in any historical reality. 相似文献
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Kathleen S. Caffrey Bruce R. Wright Patricia L. Maarhuis 《Journal of American college health : J of ACH》2018,66(3):194-201
Objective: To examine the psychometric properties of a measure of cannabis-specific Protective Behavioral Strategies (PBS), which assesses ways in which students may reduce cannabis-related risk. Participants: Respondents to the American College Health Association – National College Health Assessment II (N = 580) during Spring 2015. Methods: Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling (ESEM) were used to identify and replicate the factor structure of the measure. Results: Results support a four-factor model (Respiratory Health, Frequency/Quantity, Socializing, and General Health) with close approximate fit (Χ2 (310) = 565.96, p < .001, RMSEA = .038 (.033, .043; 90% CI), CFI = .961, TLI = .929, SRMR = .033). Support for the convergent validity and construct validity of the measure was also found. Conclusions: This is the initial step in the development of a standard, psychometrically validated measure of cannabis PBS that has the potential to inform future research and interventions. 相似文献
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Ellis B Alford A Yu P Xiong S Hill G Puckett M Mannix D Wells ME 《Evaluation and program planning》2012,35(2):287-292
A three-level growth-curve model was applied to estimate perceived impact growth trajectories, using multi-year data from project and school surveys on outcome and program implementation collected from 59 sites and approximately 1165 participating schools in the Safe Schools and Healthy Students Initiative. Primary interest is to determine whether and how project-level and school-level correlates affect schools’ perceptions of the Initiative's effectiveness over time when the effects of the pre-grant environmental conditions, grant operations, and near-term outcomes are considered. Coordination and service integration, comprehensive programs and activities for early childhood development, and change in school involvement were found to be significant predictors of school-perceived overall impact when the effect of poverty was considered. Partnership functioning, perceived importance of school resources, and school involvement were found to be significant predictors of school-perceived impact on substance use prevention when the effect of poverty was considered. 相似文献
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Each generation of immigrants has its own challenges; for example, how to maintain already constructed identities among first generation immigrants and how to construct identities of the second generation of immigrants. Numerous literature suggests that the previous studies on these topics have been conducted within larger cities such as London, Glasgow or Edinburgh. This article examines how Muslim immigrants in a small city maintain and modify some aspects of their religious and cultural identities. The data consist of 30 interviews conducted with first and second generation of Muslim immigrants in Scotland, analysis of which suggests the size of the city does not appear to affect daily Muslim practices nor their ability to maintain Muslim identity. Rather, access to shared spaces, such as Inverness Masjid and the local halal meat shop, become critical to how Muslim's maintain and modify their identity in a new place. 相似文献