MONEY DEMAND DURING HYPERINFLATION AND STABILIZATION: BOLIVIA, 1980–1988

This paper examines the demand for money in Bolivia during the 1980s, a decade of extreme instability with annual inflation rates reaching over 20,000 percent, and a subsequent stabilization, with annual rates falling to less than 25 percent and remaining so for more than five years.
Our empirical analysis makes use of error-correction approaches, time-varying-parameter estimation with Kalman filtering, and GARCH models of expected inflation and inflation variance. We find that expected inflation and inflation uncertainty both matter for money demand. Time-varying estimates show that the reaction to monetary disequilibria was significantly faster during hyperinflation.     

ROC Curves in Non‐Parametric Location‐Scale Regression Models

Abstract. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a tool of extensive use to analyse the discrimination capability of a diagnostic variable in medical studies. In certain situations, the presence of a covariate related to the diagnostic variable can increase the discriminating power of the ROC curve. In this article, we model the effect of the covariate over the diagnostic variable by means of non‐parametric location‐scale regression models. We propose a new non‐parametric estimator of the conditional ROC curve and study its asymptotic properties. We also present some simulations and an illustration to a data set concerning diagnosis of diabetes.     

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Multiplicative Models with Dependent Data

Abstract.  Several classical time series models can be written as a regression model between the components of a strictly stationary bivariate process. Some of those models, such as the ARCH models, share the property of proportionality of the regression function and the scale function, which is an interesting feature in econometric and financial models. In this article, we present a procedure to test for this feature in a non-parametric context. The test is based on the difference between two non-parametric estimators of the distribution of the regression error. Asymptotic results are proved and some simulations are shown in the paper in order to illustrate the finite sample properties of the procedure.     

Is the locus of class development of the transnational capitalist class situated within nation‐states or in the emergent transnational space?

The rise of the modern corporation has disrupted the class structures of nation‐states because, in the era of globalization, such reorganization now occurs across borders. Yet, has globalization been deep enough to facilitate the emergence of a transnational capitalist class (TCC) in which both class formation and consolidation processes are located in the transnational space itself? I contribute to our understanding of the TCC by contrasting the personal characteristics, life histories and capital endowments of members of the British corporate elite with and without transnational board appointments. The existence of the honours system in the UK allows us to compare individuals objectively in terms of their symbolic capital and to link this trait to embeddedness in the TCC. By studying 448 directors from the 100 largest firms in the UK in 2011, I find evidence of a TCC with a class consolidation process that is located within transnational space, but whose class formation dynamics are still tethered to national processes of elite production and reproduction.     

ZONING UNDER SPATIAL PRICE DISCRIMINATION

This paper investigates zoning in a duopoly model of spatial price discrimination. We find that the zone in which the firms are not allowed to locate depends on the bias of the regulator. A bias toward firms is deduced when locations around the central area are forbidden, and a bias toward consumers exists when firms are only allowed to locate at places around the central area. The design of the zoned area guarantees that firms locate optimally and works under simultaneous or sequential choice of locations by the two firms. (JEL L13, R38)     

THE HEALTH EFFECTS OF MILITARY SERVICE: EVIDENCE FROM THE VIETNAM DRAFT

There is a strong cross-sectional association between military service and adverse health. However, veterans differ very significantly in their observable characteristics from nonveterans, suggesting that some of the association between military service and adverse health may be due to omitted variables bias. To address this problem, we use draft eligibility as an instrument for military service. Despite a very strong first-stage relationship between draft eligibility and military service, the two-stage least squares estimates of the difference in health between veterans and nonveterans are statistically insignificant and too imprecise to preclude the differences in health found in the cross-sectional regressions. ( JEL H56, I12, I18)     

An Age-Structured Model for Childhood Obesity

An age-structured model for childhood obesity at population level is fitted to empirical data in order to predict the proportion of overweighted and obese children in the 6–8 and 9–12 year old classes in the region of Valencia, Spain.     

Structured Spatio-Temporal Shot-Noise Cox Point Process Models, with a View to Modelling Forest Fires

Abstract.  Spatio-temporal Cox point process models with a multiplicative structure for the driving random intensity, incorporating covariate information into temporal and spatial components, and with a residual term modelled by a shot-noise process, are considered. Such models are flexible and tractable for statistical analysis, using spatio-temporal versions of intensity and inhomogeneous K -functions, quick estimation procedures based on composite likelihoods and minimum contrast estimation, and easy simulation techniques. These advantages are demonstrated in connection with the analysis of a relatively large data set consisting of 2796 days and 5834 spatial locations of fires. The model is compared with a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox point process model, and likelihood-based methods are discussed to some extent.