THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

Blood on the tracks: Critically re‐reading a government occupational health and safety inquiry

This paper brings to light forms of interpretive closure embedded in a Government inquiry into rail industry occupational safety and heath. The paper shows how particular interpretive moves by the Inquiry had the effect of obscuring a critical analysis of economic and political relations. The analysis uses publicly available documentary data and is undertaken using interpretive and political economic forms of analysis in a multiple framework approach.     

The Bereavement of Parents and Their Search for Meaning

Summary The emotional relief of bereavement is generally recognizedas being the primary task of mourner and caregiver, but lessattention has been given to the ways in which the bereaved understandtheir experience and reconstitute family life. Recent studiesof parents whose children have died in traumatic circumstances,from murder, suicide and operation, suggest that it is an essentialpart of griefwork to resolve the meaninglessness of the crises.Those whose children die from chronic disease, handicaps, oraccidents, also need to find a meaning in their tragedies. Bereavementis thus a total psychophysical experience of suffering, andthe renewal of family life depends on the acceptance of separationand the regenerative use of its pain. Insights from psychiatrists and sociologists are acknowledgedand related to those of bereaved parents, and to the developmentof their self-help association, The Compassionate Friends. Theseprovide models of mourning and a collective response to familyloss which offer hope, support and varieties of meaning to thenewly bereaved. The roles of health and social workers involved in pre- andpost-bereavement care are explored, and ideas are offered formaking the social network more supportive. It is suggested thatthis will not be costly in material resources, but in thoseneeded for the more therapeutic involvement of the caregiver.     

Transnational political action and ‘global civil society’ in practice: the case of Oxfam

The term ‘global civil society’ has taken on increasing significance within scholarly debate over the past decade. In this article we seek to understand transnational political agency via the study of a particular transnational actor, Oxfam. We argue that various schools of thought surrounding the global civil society concept, in particular the prevailing liberal‐cosmopolitan approach, are unable to conceptualize transnational political action in practice – due largely, in the case of liberal‐cosmopolitanism, to a shared normative agenda. We also assess what contribution literature on development and civil society has made to the analysis of groups such as Oxfam. In investigating Oxfam's own perceptions of its context and the meanings of its agency, we discover an anti‐political perspective derived from an encounter between Oxfam's longstanding commitment to liberal internationalism and globalization discourse. Existing scholarship has insufficiently identified the local or parochial nature of the identities of global civil society actors.     

WORKER ATTITUDES AND THE COST OF PRODUCTION: HYPOTHESIS TESTS IN AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

This paper extends the application of neoclassical production theory to include the effects of worker attitudes on productivity and cost of production, using data for the U.S. automobile industry. Behavioral indicators of worker attitudes are imbedded in a standard four-input translog cost function. The coefficients of the imbedded function are determined in estimation of the cost function simultaneously with its share equations. Hypotheses concerning the effects of worker attitudes on the cost function are tested, and the properties of the index of worker attitude that emerge from the estimation are examined.     

A World of Emergencies: Fear, Intervention, and the Limits of Cosmopolitan Order*

Les interventions dans les ≪ cas d'urgences humanitaires complexes ≫ sont devenues une partie essentielle de la société planétaire. Le texte fournit un compte rendu de la conception des ≪ urgences ≫en termes d'imaginaire social qui procure une caractéristique à la fois de la perception et de l'action. Cet imaginaire moule la définition et la rhétorique des urgences, les façons dont elles se présentent et sont reconnues, et l'organisation de l'intervention. II reflète à la fois l'anxiété face au risque et une foi moderne envahissante en la capacité de gérer les problèmes. Quoique les événements exigeant ces interventions – par exemple, au Soudan – soient souvent rapportés comme étant manifestement convaincants, l' « imaginaire social des urgences >> organise conceptuellement ce système.
Interventions into "complex humanitarian emergencies" have become a central part of global society. This article provides an account of the construction of "emergencies" in terms of a social imaginary that gives characteristic form to both perception and action. This imaginary shapes the definition and rhetoric of emergencies, the ways in which they are produced and recognized, and the organization of intervention. It reflects both anxiety in the face of risk and a pervasive modern faith in capacity to manage problems. Though the events demanding these interventions–for example, in Sudan–are often presented as transparently compelling, the "social imaginary of emergencies" conceptually structures this system.     

IS THE BUDGET DEFICIT “TOO LARGE?”

Yes. Specifically, we find that recent spending and taxing policies of the government–if continued–violate the government's intertemporal budget constraint. As a result, government spending must be reduced and/or tax revenues must be increased. These conclusions are based on tests of whether government spending and revenue are cointegrated. In addition to examining real spending and revenue, we also normalize these variables by real GNP and population. For a growing economy, these normalized measures are perhaps more pertinent. We also test and find support for the hypothesis that deficits have become a problem only in recent years.     

Four Documents,a Non‐Citizen,and a Diplomatic Controversy: The Documentation of Identity in the Mid‐Nineteenth Century

A forgotten diplomatic controversy centered on the claim to U.S. protection by a yet‐to‐be‐naturalized citizen is analyzed to offer insights into the mid‐nineteenth century understanding of the status and function of the documentation of individual identity. It makes clear the documentation of identity had a contested and gradual development. Documentation was contested in that people (both officials and members of the public) struggled to understand how it was that a document identified a person. This uncertainty centered not only on who had the authority to document identity, but how that authority was represented on a document. Beyond its mid‐nineteenth century and U.S. focus this essay is intended to provide the context for an understanding of the administrative, bureaucratic, and social developments that had to occur before identification documents could play a pivotal role in the development of the twentieth century state. In this way it suggests that official identification is an important object of analysis for debates about the articulation of information and governing in state formation.     

MULTIPRODUCT PRICING IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL: A PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

The empirical analysis of multiproduct pricing lacks clear theoretical guidance and appropriate data, which often render traditional regression‐based analyses impractical. Under these circumstances the factors underlying price variation can be inferred using a new methodology based on principal components. Analyzing ticket, parking, and concession pricing in Major League Baseball with this methodology demonstrates that general demand shifts are the primary factor, but explain only half of overall price variation. Also important are price interactions deriving from demand interrelationships between goods and attempts to maximize the capture of consumer surplus in the presence of heterogeneous demand. (JEL D40, L11, L13)