Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

TEACHING TOOLS: ON JOURNALISTS' USE OF MACROECONOMIC CONCEPTS

Five macroeconomic concepts are presented which are prominent in the business sections of newspapers, but which are not given equivalent prominence in macroeconomic textbooks. These are the discouraged worker phenomenon, the use of inventories in forecasting, the effect of changes in the money supply on the bond market, and the effects of inflation and nominal interest rates in the foreign exchange market. These concepts are presented via news clips illustrating the way they typically appear in the press. Instructors are urged to place extra emphasis on these concepts.     

Getting the most for your consulting dollars

Major changes in the health care financing and delivery system have usually been accompanied by an increase in demand within the health care field for consulting services. The passage of Medicare/Medicaid in 1965 is one example. The passage of the DRG-based prospective pricing system in 1983 is another. Both spawned a substantial amount of work, and income, for consulting firms. Now the health care field is engaged in nearly total transformation as the forces of health care reform at the national level are met with myriad adjustments at the local and regional levels. Managed care, already a byword, is being strengthened by a multitude of so-called integrated system initiatives. It is not easy to survive, and the call is out to consultants to save the day, or at least stave off disaster. In the following four articles, Marilyn Kennedy, a member of the ACPE faculty and a consultant herself, gives some advice on how to make the consulting arrangement successful; three physician executives provide a glimpse at consults that have worked, and some that did not work.     

Personal trainer, personal coach

The increasing number of fresh faces in the management ranks, many of them with highly polished credentials but little in the way of practical experience in the work-a-day management world, has increased the need for a new consulting professional--the personal coach. There simply aren't enough volunteer mentors to accommodate the growing medical management profession. Whatever the conditions under which this new professional's services are sought, both the individual to be coached and the organization for which the individual works should approach the arrangement with care and planning. The author offers some guidance for making the arrangement pay off.     

Can you communicate cross-generationally?

What is fractured cross-generational communication? When what one person heard was not what the other person said. Regardless of your age, you need to understand some of the differences in communication styles that must be overcome if people are to work well together. This is especially important in health care right now when there are other pressing issues. Interpreters are at a premium because so much misunderstanding clouds the communication process. Two management strategies are presented that will help bridge the gaps between communication styles.     

How could I have gotten it wrong?

Can you avoid ending up in a career-denting job: Are there potential pitfalls to recognize on the search for a rewarding position? Finding oneself in an impossible job, working for a boss who brings out your worst qualities and deepest insecurities, or joining an organization that is doomed are nightmare scenarios. How do these judgment errors happen? We asked physicians who've been there and, unfortunately, done just that. What they learned might help the rest of us skip the experience.     

“A rape was reported”: construction of crime in a university newspaper

Historically, the news media have engaged in high rates victim blaming in their reporting of sexual assaults. However, in recent years, gains in civil rights and renewed attention to Title IX may mean sexual assault victims are receiving less-biased news coverage. Using a content analysis, we examined the tone and message of all crime stories published in one United States university newspaper from academic year 2015–2016 (n = 99). Comparing attributions of responsibility made to both victims and offenders across several major crime categories (rape, murder, sexual assault, robbery, physical assault, sexual misconduct, and sexual abuse), and consistent with historical trends, we found higher levels of victim blaming in stories on rape and sexual assault than any other crime. We identify rhetorical devices commonly used to discredit the victim and/or absolve the perpetrator. Despite perceived gains achieved by Title IX, news coverage continues to buttress victim blaming culture.     

Coproduction and the third sector in France: Governmental traditions and the French conceptualization of participation

Research on coproduction has tended to assume a coherence of conceptualizations of coproduction across borders, and little analysis of the framing and discourse of coproduction in different contexts has been undertaken. In the French language literature on citizen participation and the social and solidarity economy, the term coproduction is little used. This paper investigates the narratives of French academics, public, and third sector actors in order to identify what, if anything, is different about the French context that explains this gap. Drawing on semistructured interviews, I identify four key narratives that distinguish the French conceptualizations of coproduction and the third sector from the dominant English language coproduction literature: (a) a mainstreaming of coproduction as part of organizational purpose in the social and solidarity economy, (b) an emphasis on formalized involvement of citizens in organizational governance, (c) the motivation of citizen empowerment and democracy over cost and efficiency, and (d) the use of the term coconstruction rather than coproduction. I argue that these narratives are shaped by the governmental traditions of France, which emphasize formal rules, hierarchy, representative democracy, and a suspicion of particularistic interests. I conclude by questioning the universality of some of the axioms of coproduction theory in the English language literature.     

Vacant land conversion to community gardens: influences on generalist arthropod predators and biocontrol services in urban greenspaces

Due to economic decline and the recent rise in home foreclosure, many U.S. cities are faced with managing large acreages of vacant land. Interest in local food production on this land has the potential to dramatically reshape the composition of greenspace found within urban landscapes. This study examined how the conversion of vacant land to urban gardens and farms influenced arthropod generalist predator populations and their ability to support biocontrol services. We found that the abundance of Coccinellidae and Syrphidae, and the activity density of Carabidae, Formicidae, and Lycosidae were equivalent among vacant lot and urban garden sites. Dolichopodidae abundance and the activity density of Linyphiidae and Opiliones were reduced in urban gardens whereas Anthocoridae abundance and the activity density of Staphylinidae were greater within urban gardens relative to vacant lots. The biocontrol service supplied by generalist predators was measured using sentinel eggs (Helicoverpa zea (Noctuiidae)) and pupae (Sarcophaga bullata (Sarcophagidae) and Musca domestica (Muscidae)). We found no difference in the biocontrol of H. zea eggs or M. domestica pupae among the focal greenspaces. We found no difference in the removal of S. bullata pupae by predators in June 2010, whereas in August 2010 a greater proportion of pupae were removed in urban garden sites relative to vacant lots. Based on these findings, we discuss the potential of the urban landscape to support generalist predators and sustainable urban gardening and farming.