An application of catastrophe theory to management science process

Practicing management scientists often complain of the alleged irrational behavior on the part of the managers they are trying to serve, particularly when a manager suddenly and unexpectedly shifts behavior from one of support to one of resistance. The authors feel such behavior is only believed to be irrational because the management scientist is using the wrong mental model when projecting past behavioral patterns into the future. This paper attempts to solve this problem by using the newly developed catastrophe theory to develop a different model where sudden shifts in behavior are considered perfectly rational and explainable. The basic implication that is drawn from this new model is that successful implementation of management science depends on a sequence of interactions with the ultimate model user and that care in the structuring of these interactions can greatly enhance the probability of eventual user acceptance.     

Econometric analysis and managerial decision making

Econometric analysis is concerned with the quantitative relationships between economic variables and it can provide an important input into the decision making process of managers. Typically econometrics differs from other apsects of management science in that it considers problems primarily, though not exclusively, from a background of economics rather than of other disciplines and behaviour is usually dealt with at higher levels of data aggregation than the individual firm.This paper considers some applications of typical econometrics to the general area of managerial decision making, where primarily the techniques have a role to play in assisting the general process of data analysis. Initially discussion is pointed towards the use of the analysis for predictive purposes and the contrast with time series methods. Subsequently examples are presented where the objective is to obtain a better understanding of individual economic relationships that aim to be important inputs into the decision making process, for example cost and revenue analysis. Finally, an example is given of how these ideas contribute more generally to the activity of model building for the firm as a whole both for the purpose of forecasting and policy simulation.     

Local volunteers respond to the Rena oil spill in Maketū, New Zealand

Following the MV Rena grounding and oil spill in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand in October 2011, the Māori community of Maketū were quick to respond to the arrival of oil on their beaches. They asserted their rangatiratanga by establishing their marae as a base and successfully coordinated a clean-up by more than 450 volunteers, feeding these volunteers every day. We interviewed 11 clean-up leaders and volunteers in Maketū to gather information about how the oil spill affected people in the community and how they ensured the success of their clean-up efforts. Many volunteers returned to help with the clean-up day after day over several weeks. Concepts of kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga underpinned the work of the Maketū clean-up organisers. Participants attributed the success of the Maketū clean-up to the speed with which they responded, the support they received from their community and local businesses, and their local knowledge.     

Temporal Relationship of Sex Risk Behaviors and Substance Use Severity Among Men in Substance Use Treatment

Sex risk behaviors and substance use are intertwined. Many men continue to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors even when enrolled in substance use disorder (SUD) treatment. We hypothesized that changes in sex risk behaviors would coincide with changes in drug/alcohol use severity among men in SUD treatment. During an HIV risk-reduction trial, men in methadone maintenance and outpatient drug-free treatment (N = 359) completed assessments at baseline and six months after. We assessed changes in sex risk and substance use severity, using the Addiction Severity Index–Lite (ASI-Lite), controlling for treatment condition. In multinomial logistic regressions, decreased alcohol severity was significantly associated with decreases in reported sex partners, and increased alcohol severity was significantly associated with increases in reported sex partners. Increasing drug use severity was significantly associated with maintaining and initiating sex with a high-risk partner, while decreasing alcohol use severity was significantly associated with discontinuing sex under the influence. However, changes in drug/alcohol use severity were not associated with changes in unprotected sex. Substance use reductions may decrease HIV risk behaviors among male substance users. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating interventions in SUD treatment settings that address the intersection of sex risk behaviors and substance use.     

Reducing overclaiming in needs assessment studies. An experimental comparison.

A randomized experiment investigated the effect of various instructional sets on reducing agency awareness overclaiming, that is, claiming knowledge of fictitious agencies. As predicted, respondents who were warned that the list contained fake agencies exhibited less agency awareness overclaiming than respondents who were not warned. However, providing respondents a memory retrieval strategy had no effect on agency awareness overclaiming. A multivariate model, which included demographic variables, response style variables, and knowledge variables, explained 40% of the variance of agency awareness overclaiming.