小额信贷之违约概率模型:特别考虑异质性

在新巴塞尔资本协议(New Basel Capital Accord)对金融全球化的冲击及金融机构改善资产质量及合并政策的影响下,我国台湾地区金融业进入激烈合并竞争的时代.许多银行颇受降低逾放比率及增加净值报酬率与资产报酬率两难之困扰.消费性信用贷款产品利差大、风险分散,是金融机构授信经营极重要的产品.实证结果显示,采用世代研究(cohort study)建立之模型对样本数据之拟合程度较个案对照研究法(case-control study)的解释变异量为佳,且较符合新巴塞尔资本协议规定及科学程序.虽然Logistic 回归模型在建立逾期概率模型上广泛地被使用,但要求存在于同构型的变异数Var=np(1-p)假设上,且在数据分析上常因为出现变异数之异质性问题,故可采用调整变异数异质性之方法.     

The management of managers: Disputing in an executive hierarchy

This paper focuses on the relationship between organizational rank and respectability and the way top managers handle their interpersonal grievances, conflicts, and disputes in an executive hierarchy. Formal grievance procedures are rarely used. Downward grievances (from a superior to a subordinate) are often settled unilaterally by the superior. Upward grievances are typically handled covertly by subordinates. Titular equals opt for a range of covert and confrontational tactics, many of which evolve into disputes and are settled by a common superior. Respectability within the executive ranks appears to enhance the ability of superiors to impose outcomes on grievances, conflicts, and disputes between and within subordinates, to decrease the hostility of upward grievances, and to decrease vulnerability of subordinates to sanctions by their superiors.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the Law and Society Association, Washington, DC, June 1987.     

Allocation of research and development funds: A zero-one goal programming approach

The research and development project selection process is one of the most difficult and important problems faced by management. It is typically complicated by indivisibility of projects and multiple and conflicting objectives, in addition to limitations on funding, facilities, and qualified researchers. In this paper a case example involving a high technology electrical equipment manufacturer is developed to illustrate this problem using zero—one goal programming to accommodate indivisibility of projects in addition to multiple and conflicting goals. The model presented is an attempt to provide managers with a robust tool for allocating scarce resources among research and development projects.     

Slave Trading in a Republic of Credit: Financial Architecture of the US Slave Market, 1815–1840

Credit facilitated the intra-US slave trade's growth between 1815 and the financial crisis of the late 1830s. Movement of money across geographic space was the enslavers’ chief challenge, and this article details the process of slaving firms’ building credit and remitting funds with which they constructed supply chains in bondspersons. Slave market development was dependent on US and North Atlantic financial integration and comprised three stages. These included use of the Second Bank of the USA, supplemented by domestic bills of exchange, and culminating in the use of southern state banks with northern correspondent ties, which the financial crisis severed.     

Fertility of the jews

The objectives of this paper were to review and summarize the existing literature on Jewish fertility and to discuss the highlights of data on fertility trends and differentials based on survey data obtained on the Jewish population of the metropolitan area of Providence, Rhode Island. The literature consistently confirmed the finding of lower fertility among Jews since the 1880's in the United States and for the last seventy-five years in a variety of European countries.A review of available data on fertility trends and differentials within the Jewish population indicated contradictory and inconsistent findings. The Providence survey data pointed to changing patterns of fertility among Jews and clarified a number of seeming inconsistencies. These data suggested (1) the pre-World War II decline and postwar recovery of Jewish fertility; (2) the change from an inverse relationship of social class and Jewish fertility among first-generation Jews to a direct relationship among second- and third-generation Jews; (3) the changing relationship of religiosity and Jewish fertility, which reflects social class changes.Finally, an attempt is made to clarify the interpretation of these and related findings by placing the analysis of Jewish fertility in the context of assimilation and acculturation.     

Social support and psychoeducational interventions with middle class dropout youth

There are substantial numbers of high school dropouts among middle class, high achieving and majority youth. Yet, little research has been undertaken to identify the psychosocial and family characteristics, educational needs, and program requirements of middle class dropout youth. This paper reports the educational history, individual psychosocial characteristics and family backgrounds of 102 middle class dropout youth who participated in an educational treatment program within a university. Data from a questionnaire and a family assessment instrument indicate that middle class dropout youth have a variety of family, social, emotional and learning disorders. Implications for clinical interventions are presented along with a case history and treatment plan of one of the youth in the study.     

Gender roles,marriage, and residential independence

This article examines the effects of gender role attitudes on leaving home for marriage and for unmarried independence among young men and women in the United States in the 1980s. The choice to leave home for unmarried independence is associated with two major changes in family relationships: the shift in parent-child interaction from a traditional emphasis on children's obedience toward a greater stress on independence, and the shift toward more egalitarian definitions of gender roles in both work and family spheres. We ask the following: What is the effect of holding more modern gender role attitudes on gender differences in leaving home for marriage? Does holding more modern gender role attitudes influence patterns of leaving home for marriage and for unmarried independence differently for men and women? We examine these questions with data from sophomores in the High School and Beyond Survey.     

Smooth Estimation of the Reliability Function

Problems with censored data arise quite frequently in reliability applications. Estimation of the reliability function is usually of concern. Reliability function estimators proposed by Kaplan and Meier (1958), Breslow (1972), are generally used when dealing with censored data. These estimators have the known properties of being asymptotically unbiased, uniformly strongly consistent, and weakly convergent to the same Gaussian process, when properly normalized. We study the properties of the smoothed Kaplan-Meier estimator with a suitable kernel function in this paper. The smooth estimator is compared with the Kaplan-Meier and Breslow estimators for large sample sizes giving an exact expression for an appropriately normalized difference of the mean square error (MSE) of the two estimators. This quantifies the deficiency of the Kaplan-Meier estimator in comparison to the smoothed version. We also obtain a non-asymptotic bound on an expected ₁-type error under weak conditions. Some simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the suggested method.