Unemployment Benefits and Employment Policies in the Presence of a Strong Trade Union: A Comparison

Abstract. The paper analyses, within a game theoretic approach, the consequences on private employment and real wages of a government policy of raising unemployment benefits following a fall in employment. The effects of such a policy are then compared with those arising from a more conventional demand policy. Under the policy regime described the reaction of the unions will cause, when the economy is hit by a negative shock on employment, a tendency for the real wage to rise and for private employment to decrease further. As far as the comparison of such policy with a policy of direct employment by the government is concerned we have reached the following conclusions. A policy based on unemployment benefit will give rise to a smaller increase in the real wage than a policy based on public employment if the change in the marginal utility of being employed due to change in the unemployment benefit is smaller than the utility that the union will obtain from an extra employed person. Moreover it appears that a policy based on unemployment benefits has a smaller negative effect on private employment, than a policy based on direct employment. if such a policy is adopted just after an employment benefits represent also a subsidy to the firms. We have shown that the effects on the real wage of the Policy rule considered are in this case stronger. The effects on employment depend on the relative strength of the union reaction and of the policy's supply side effects.     

The impact of HIV/AIDS on social security contributions: The case of Zimbabwe

Significant early retirement from work due to HIV/AIDS-related illness is reducing the gainfully employed population and threatening the viability of the statutory social security schemes run by the National Social Security Authority in Zimbabwe. The economy has been in recession for a decade, with high inflation and significant job losses also impacting negatively on contributions to the National Pension and Other Benefits Scheme (NPOBS), and government imposes ceilings on insurable earnings from which contributions are drawn. There are currently no consistent strategies to mitigate attritional effects of these factors on the social security schemes. The aim of this study was to prospectively project the potential impact of HIV/AIDS and imposed ceilings on NPOBS revenue in the presence of high inflation. It was found that HIV/AIDS will reduce projected contributions to the scheme by more than 30 per cent by 2030. Policy strategies to adjust and frequently review levels of growth of imposed ceilings on insurable earnings in line with inflation growth and to invest in HIV/AIDS prevention could be adopted to ameliorate the negative impact of HIV/AIDS and/or ceiling caps on social security contributions in Zimbabwe.     

Cohesion and Enmeshment Revisited: Differentiation,Identity, and Well‐Being in Two European Cultures

We examined the nature and implications of family differentiation among adolescents facing a life transition in 2 European countries with differing family cultures. One hundred and twenty‐four Italian and 109 U.K. adolescents completed measures of family differentiation (cohesion and enmeshment), identity threat (perception of threat to the self associated with finishing school), life satisfaction, depressive symptoms, and anxiety. Confirmatory factor analyses showed that cohesion and enmeshment were distinguishable in both countries, orthogonal in the U.K. but positively correlated in Italy. Family cohesion was associated with better psychological well‐being in both countries; enmeshment was associated with poorer psychological well‐being in the U.K. but not in Italy. Structural equation models showed that effects on well‐being were fully mediated by identity threat in both cultures.     

Estimating the turning point location in shifted exponential model of time series

We consider the distribution of the turning point location of time series modeled as the sum of deterministic trend plus random noise. If the variables are modeled by shifted exponentials, whose location parameters define the trend, we provide a formula for computing the distribution of the turning point location and consequently to estimate a confidence interval for the location. We test this formula in simulated data series having a trend with asymmetric minimum, investigating the coverage rate as a function of a bandwidth parameter. The method is applied to estimate the confidence interval of the minimum location of two types of real-time series: the RT intervals extracted from the electrocardiogram recorded during the exercise test and an economic indicator, the current account balance. We discuss the connection with stochastic ordering.     

Intergenerational Transfers,and Public Pensions in a Non Altuistic Setting: a Public Choice Model

The paper presents a model based on non‐altruistic individuals, where middle aged and old individuals influence the decisions about public social security system. This is an alternative or a complement to private intergenerational transfers. Fertility is endogenous, as children are seen as an assets in the process of transferring resources to old age by the network of intergenerational intrafamily transfers. Expectations about the Government social security budget balance play a crucial role. We also present some empirical estimates of the fertility and pension ‘demand’ function for some developed countries. It emerges that both can be treated as endogenous, and the results are coherent with the theory.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Impact of Adolescents' Filial Self‐Efficacy on Quality of Family Functioning and Satisfaction

In this prospective study, we tested a structural model in which adolescents' perceived self‐efficacy to manage parental relationships affected their satisfaction with family life both directly, and indirectly, through its impact on family practices. Findings based on 380 Italian adolescents showed that perceived filial self‐efficacy was linked directly and indirectly to satisfaction with family life, and that these relations held both concurrently and longitudinally. In particular, the greater adolescents perceived their self‐efficacy, the more they reported open communication with their parents, the more accepting they were of their parents' monitoring of their own activities outside the home and the less inclined they were to get into escalative discord over disagreements. Regardless of whether perceived filial self‐efficacy was placed in the conceptual structure as a contributor to the quality of family interactions or as a partial product of family functioning, it consistently predicted satisfaction with family life.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: Experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

The difference-sign runs length distribution in testing for serial independence

We investigate the sequence of difference-sign runs length of a time series in the context of non-parametric tests for serial independence. This sequence is, under suitable conditioning, a stationary sequence and we prove that the normalized correlation of two consecutive runs length is small (≈0.0427). We use this result in a test based on the relative entropy of the empirical distribution of the runs length. We investigate the performance of the test in simulated series and test serial independence of cardiac data series in atrial fibrillation.