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Brian W. Miller Ian Breckheimer Amy L. McCleary Liza Guzmán-Ramirez Susan C. Caplow Jessica C. Jones-Smith Stephen J. Walsh 《Population and environment》2010,31(6):401-426
Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population–environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model
complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially
explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development
challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use/Land Cover dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela
Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program
that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a
problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of
Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household
interviews and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands—tourism, fisheries, and agriculture.
We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting
population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly
during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population–environment systems,
(2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps. 相似文献
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