Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

Estimating the movement among staging areas of the barnacle goose ( Branta leucopsis )

Barnacle geese ( Branta leucopsis ) make annual migrations between breeding colonies in northern Europe and Eurasia to wintering grounds in Holland. During the migration, they sojourn for several weeks in five areas on the northern coast of Germany. Observers traverse these areas during the course of studying the flocks. Previous belief was that there was little exchange of birds among the five areas; however, some banded birds were observed in more than one area indicating that some movement takes place. In this presentation, we estimate the movement rates among the areas using open- and closed-population models.     

The shape of mortality curves: an analysis of counties in England and Wales, 1911

Previous analysis has shown that life tables may be distinguished by two orthogonal pieces of information, the level of mortality in the population and the relative shape of the mortality curve. We show that both the regions of England and Wales in 1911, and locality types (county boroughs, other urban, and rural) differ in the shape of their mortality curves. Using data for the administrative counties, we examine the underlying correlates of this differentiation, paying particular attention to the socio-economic structure of the counties as reflected in their wealth, opportunity levels, and degree of urbanisation.     

Identifying regular blocks in valued networks: A heuristic applied to the St. Marks carbon flow data,and international trade in cereal products

While the concept of regular equivalence is equally applicable to dichotomous as well as valued networks, the identification of regular blocks in regular blockmodels is somewhat problematic when dealing with valued networks. Applying the standard procedure for identifying ties in such blockmodels, a procedure perhaps most suited for dichotomous networks, does tend to generate block images and reduced graphs that differ from intuitive notions of such structures.     

Permanent Exclusions from Schools in England in the 1990s: Trends,Causes and Responses1

The number of permanent exclusions from school continues to rise. The number excluded in the 1994–95 school year, the first full year after the implementation of the sections of the 1993 Act, stands at over 12000. Some 84% of permanent exclusions are from secondary schools and over 45% of these are estimated to be in years 10 and 11. Provision for pupils out of school is still unsatisfactory with many receiving part-time education, some very part-time. Responses to exclusion are too limited in scope, underfunded and, in the present competitive climate, will not stem the rise in numbers.     

Individual irrationality and social welfare

Individual preferences inconsistent with personal welfare caused neither by ignorance nor by a positive consideration for the welfare of others are defined as (welfare) irrational. Sources of irrationality (rigid adherence to moral principles, excessive fear of danger, excessive tempetation of pleasure, revenge, inertia, faulty telescopic faculty, the fallacy of diminishing marginal utility of utility, etc.) are discussed. An evolutionary explanation of irrationality is suggested and some implications for individual decision and social policy indicated.I am grateful to two anonymous referees for comments.