Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

The effects of patriarchal systems on beliefs surrounding the Goddess in pre-history and early christianity

This article discusses effects on the Goddess belief by past civilizations through religious and social systems with a focus on shifting images and concepts of the Goddess from pre-history matriarchal social systems, to patriarchal systems in Early Christianity. Additionally, the article addresses how changing interpretations of Goddess images and concepts reflect fundamental changes in religion and social organizations. In adopting a feminist perspective the article ultimately shows the influence and prominence of the Goddess woshipped in Pre-History and Early Christianity. a primary interest in anthropology and religion.     

Myth,allegiances, and the study of social control

That sociology subscribes to certain popular myths and has aligned itself with the welfare of some groups over others complicates research into social control. This is especially so when the research deals with stereotypes and their effects on differential legal treatment. That the discipline has historically taken sides regarding certain commonly held stereotypes and been supportive of certain groups, means that findings that challenge those stereotypes or that are viewed as detrimental to the supported groups are brought into question. Our research on a regulatory mechanism of social control—the Black Book, a list of persons excluded from licensed gaming in Nevada because of their perceived threat to the industry—is illustrative of these complications. Our findings that the Black Book is largely symbolic and is applied discriminatorily challenge not only beliefs in its efficacy but certain myths and allegiances within sociology. That a group sociologically identified with the problem was discriminated against, and that a well-protected group elicited preferential treatment at the hands of regulators who identify with them have been particularly problematic for the acceptance of the findings. We argue here that debunking myth and value neutrality are essential to scientific endeavor and should override such disciplinary tendencies toward the tolerance and protection of some groups over others. Her research has dealt with aspects of culture, organized crime, and social elites. She is currently working on a book on high society and thoroughbred racing. His publications have dealt with issues of labeling and secondary deviation, the role of stereotypes in the legal process, and the legal reaction to corporate crime.     

The Micro System of Deviance in Intimate Relationships*

Deviance in intimate relationships may lie as much within the micro system of such relationships as it does within the personalities of the actors involved. Using a Parsonsian framework, it is argued that the strain of systemically disequilibrated relationships can produce deviant personality adaptations which, in turn, intensify conflict and deviance in those relationships. It is also proposed that a reciprocal quality exists to such maladaptations, with each member of the dyad contributing to the amplification of a stable system of deviant behavior patterns within the relationship. Because the patterns of maladaptive dyads spill over into parent-child relationships, they have implications for understanding intergenerational transmission of deviance between intimates.     

A simple procedure for the selection of significant effects

Summary.  Given a large number of test statistics, a small proportion of which represent departures from the relevant null hypothesis, a simple rule is given for choosing those statistics that are indicative of departure. It is based on fitting by moments a mixture model to the set of test statistics and then deriving an estimated likelihood ratio. Simulation suggests that the procedure has good properties when the departure from an overall null hypothesis is not too small.     

Communication of risk: health hazards from mobile phones

Summary. Possible health hazards from mobile phones arise from the use of the phones themselves and via the base stations that relay signals. Except for an increase in traffic accidents induced by the use of mobile phones in cars the evidence for a health hazard is at most indirect, but it cannot be entirely dismissed; the phones have not been widely used for sufficiently long for direct epidemiological studies to have high sensitivity for detecting any induced incidence of cancer, for example. The background and evidence are briefly reviewed and the steps taken in the UK to make information widely available described.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Risks from Illegally Imported Meat Contaminated with Foot and Mouth Disease Virus to Great Britain

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.     

Identity and Boundary Tensions When Educators and Mental Health Professionals Collaborate: Between Wish and Reality

Schools are centers of collaboration in promoting the development and learning of children and adolescents. They seek to develop cultures of collaboration not only within their walls but also among constituencies with similar interests. These efforts, unfortunately, all too often prove frustrating and disappointing to all concerned. Yet, the need for interdisciplinary inquiry is greater today than ever before. This is particularly true considering the complex, diverse, and multifaceted nature of today's schools. No one professional can address all of the problems confronting education, particularly those of urban schools. For decades mental health and education professionals have joined together around their similar interest in promoting children and adolescent development. One such initiative is a program that fosters educators' development. This program, named the Teacher Education Program, began under the auspices of the Chicago Institute for Psychoanalysis and evolved into the Human Development and Learning Program when a partnership was formed with DePaul University's School of Education. From the program's 34-year history, the authors highlight specific tensions they experienced as directors of this collaborative initiative, and how these challenges either were or were not anticipated and/or addressed. The aims are to put a human face on the challenges and struggles encountered in the relationship between education and mental health professionals, and to identify common ground between educational and psychoanalytic theories and practices.     

Non-collegial simple games and the nowhere denseness of the set of preference profiles having a core

In recent papers, somewhat conflicting results on the generic emptiness of the core have been proven. Rubinstein (1979) has shown that the core is generically empty in the Kannai topology even without a restriction on the dimensionality of the alternative space. Schofield (1980) finds the core generically empty in the Whitney-C topology, but requires a dimensionality condition. This note explores the apparent conflict by proving a generalization of Rubinstein's result for the Whitney-C ⁰ topology, and showing that the result does not extend to the Whitney-C ¹ topology without a dimensionality condition.I would like to thank Kim Border and Richard McKelvey for their helpful discussion and comments. This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant no. SES 78-2478781