In-Sample Inference and Forecasting in Misspecified Factor Models

This article considers in-sample prediction and out-of-sample forecasting in regressions with many exogenous predictors. We consider four dimension-reduction devices: principal components, ridge, Landweber Fridman, and partial least squares. We derive rates of convergence for two representative models: an ill-posed model and an approximate factor model. The theory is developed for a large cross-section and a large time-series. As all these methods depend on a tuning parameter to be selected, we also propose data-driven selection methods based on cross-validation and establish their optimality. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application to forecasting inflation and output growth in the U.S. show that data-reduction methods outperform conventional methods in several relevant settings, and might effectively guard against instabilities in predictors’ forecasting ability.     

Maximum force levels in different positions of shoulder and elbow

The number of occupational diseases in Mexico is alarming and clearly it is important to do studies with the purpose of improving the design of workstations. The objective of this research is to determine the maximum force levels in different positions of shoulder and elbow. An experiment was conducted with 16 subjects between 18 and 28 years old: 8 male and 8 female. We considered 16 different positions, working with the right and left arm to perform the tasks of pull and push. The tasks consisted of pushing or pulling a dynamometer for a period of 3 seconds as hard as possible. The results were presented in tables. The tables show the mean, standard deviation and range of force levels in different positions.     

Transient Analysis of Large Markov Models with Absorbing States Using Regenerative Randomization

ABSTRACT

In this article, we develop a new method, called regenerative randomization, for the transient analysis of continuous time Markov models with absorbing states. The method has the same good properties as standard randomization: numerical stability, well-controlled computation error, and ability to specify the computation error in advance. The method has a benign behavior for large t and is significantly less costly than standard randomization for large enough models and large enough t. For a class of models, class C, including typical failure/repair reliability models with exponential failure and repair time distributions and repair in every state with failed components, stronger theoretical results are available assessing the efficiency of the method in terms of “visible” model characteristics. A large example belonging to that class is used to illustrate the performance of the method and to show that it can indeed be much faster than standard randomization.     

Work Trajectories of Female and Male Immigrants in Spain

This article aims to examine in depth the work trajectories of individuals over time, in order to provide a wider perspective of the employment history of immigrants compared to native people, by gender and for more than one decade (2005–2017) in Spain. We use microdata (cohort and multivariate analysis) from the Labour Force Survey and carry out a comparison for three groups: the Spanish born in Spain, the Spanish born abroad, and the non-Spanish born abroad. The results confirm that the non-Spanish born-abroad group is characterized by the existence of segmented assimilation. All foreigners suffered a loss in their work trajectories, since their employment rate in 2017 has as yet neither reached the level of the last years of the previous economic expansion nor the level of the previous cohorts at the same age.     

Political Activism as Driver of Cooperative Sector

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - It has been shown that, in a context of economic crisis, cooperatives remain more resilient and flexible than other forms...     

Evaluating the Move to a Linear Tax System in Germany and Other European Countries

This paper proposes a comparison of the results of tax policy analysis obtained on the basis of unitary and collective representations of the household. We first generate labour supplies consistent with the collective rationality, by use of a model calibrated on microdata as described in Vermeulen et al. [Collective Models of Household Labor Supply with Nonconvex Budget Sets and Nonparticipation: A Calibration Approach (2006)]. A unitary model is then estimated on these collective data and unitary and collective responses to a tax reform are compared. We focus on the introduction of linear taxation in Germany. The exercise is replicated for other European countries and other topical reforms. Distortions due to the use of a unitary model turn out to be important in predicting labour supply adjustments, in the design of tax revenue neutral reforms, and in predicting a reform’s welfare implications.

Interrupted aspirations: research and policy on Gitano education in a time of recession,in Spain

During the past decade, Gitano students’ school success and its cultural, social and emotional consequences have been largely unexplored, particularly in a new context: the deep economic crisis in Spain. This study reviews and analyses the evolution of the research production and the changing contexts of policy trends affecting the ‘Roma education issue’ as they have developed in Spain during the past decade (2004–2014). The authors take as a starting point the groundbreaking study published in 2004 that focused on trajectories of educational achievement and continuity among Gitano youth, and go on to reconstruct the approaches undertaken by qualitative, quantitative and evaluation research since then, in relation to their contributions to improve policy recommendations. The role played by Spanish and European social and educational strategies addressed to the Gitano/Roma population is critically explored to challenge the controversial notion of a ‘Spanish model of Roma integration’. Finally, the authors argue that the deterioration of public education and the virtual disappearance of social benefits in recent years, in addition to the worrying actions taken against Roma citizens in the EU, are to account for the interrupted aspirations of a whole generation of Gitano/Roma youth.     

A Regional Decision Support Scheme for Pest Risk Analysis in Southeast Asia

A key justification to support plant health regulations is the ability of quarantine services to conduct pest risk analyses (PRA). Despite the supranational nature of biological invasions and the close proximity and connectivity of Southeast Asian countries, PRAs are conducted at the national level. Furthermore, some countries have limited experience in the development of PRAs, which may result in inadequate phytosanitary responses that put their plant resources at risk to pests vectored via international trade. We review existing decision support schemes for PRAs and, following international standards for phytosanitary measures, propose new methods that adapt existing practices to suit the unique characteristics of Southeast Asia. Using a formal written expert elicitation survey, a panel of regional scientific experts was asked to identify and rate unique traits of Southeast Asia with respect to PRA. Subsequently, an expert elicitation workshop with plant protection officials was conducted to verify the potential applicability of the developed methods. Rich biodiversity, shortage of trained personnel, social vulnerability, tropical climate, agriculture‐dependent economies, high rates of land‐use change, and difficulties in implementing risk management options were identified as challenging Southeast Asian traits. The developed methods emphasize local Southeast Asian conditions and could help support authorities responsible for carrying out PRAs within the region. These methods could also facilitate the creation of other PRA schemes in low‐ and middle‐income tropical countries.