Behavioral responses of rural and urban greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to sound disturbance

Urban Ecosystems - The development of urban areas imposes challenges that wildlife must adapt to in order to persist in these new habitats. One of the greatest changes brought by urbanization has...     

The PALS parenting support programme: lessons learned from the evaluation of processes and outcomes

Although there has recently been a rise in parenting support programmes within the UK, only a minority of these programmes have benefited from evaluation of either outcomes or processes. This paper describes the development of the PALS programme (Parents Altogether Lending Support), reporting both on its effectiveness in improving parents' interactions with their children and on the lessons that were learned about embedding such a programme within the local community. Over the 18‐month period of the programme, a total of 17 courses were run, with 75 parents and carers (primarily mothers) participating in the programme overall. Evaluation results indicated that participants enjoyed the course and found it beneficial, particularly in terms of altering their own actions in specific ways that were able to promote better behaviour on the part of their children. Participants also valued the opportunity to share their experiences with other parents. The key lesson identified in regard to the development of parenting programmes concerned the need for the community to feel a sense of ownership for the initiative. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dairy Farm Survival in a Metropolitan Area: Dutchess County,New York, 1984–19901

Abstract The effect of nonfarm development on dairy farm survival in New York's highly developed lower Hudson Valley is analyzed. The major hypothesis is that significant losses of dairy farms during this period are the result of urban development pressures. Contrary to this hypothesis, however, the bivariate and multivariate analyses of data from a mail survey of all commercial dairy operators in Dutchess County as of 1984 and industry survivors, exiters, and new entrants through 1990 demonstrate that nonfarm development has a negligible effect on dairy farm survival; rather, survival is significantly affected by age of operator and by family disruption. Thus, demographic and family process factors are found to be more powerful determinants of dairy farm survival in this particular metropolitan context.     

A semi-parametric approach to robust parameter design

Parameter design or robust parameter design (RPD) is an engineering methodology intended as a cost-effective approach for improving the quality of products and processes. The goal of parameter design is to choose the levels of the control variables that optimize a defined quality characteristic. An essential component of RPD involves the assumption of well estimated models for the process mean and variance. Traditionally, the modeling of the mean and variance has been done parametrically. It is often the case, particularly when modeling the variance, that nonparametric techniques are more appropriate due to the nature of the curvature in the underlying function. Most response surface experiments involve sparse data. In sparse data situations with unusual curvature in the underlying function, nonparametric techniques often result in estimates with problematic variation whereas their parametric counterparts may result in estimates with problematic bias. We propose the use of semi-parametric modeling within the robust design setting, combining parametric and nonparametric functions to improve the quality of both mean and variance model estimation. The proposed method will be illustrated with an example and simulations.     

Flipping and ex post aggregation

We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information. Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002     

Determinants of housing quality: A comparison of white,African-American,and Hispanic single-parent women

This study examines housing quality among three groups of single-parent women: white, African-American, and Hispanic. Three indicators of housing quality—crowding, affordability, and satisfaction—are used to discover the extent to which these groups experience housing problems. This study also explores differences and similarities in the factors that precipitate problems in housing quality for these three groups of single parents. Findings suggest important differences and similarities in the nature of housing quality problems among white, African-American, and Hispanic single-parent women. The specified variables explained about 20% of the variance in crowding, housing affordability, and housing satisfaction. On measures of objective and subjective housing quality, white single mothers are better housed than their African-American or Hispanic counterparts. Hispanic single mothers have the largest housing cost burden and average more persons per household than the other groups. African-Americans are twice as likely as either group to live in low-quality housing and reported the lowest average satisfaction with their housing. Her research interests include housing and neighborhood assessment and women and public policy issues. She has recently published articles inUrban Affairs Quarterly andHousing and Society on housing and neighborhood assessment criteria among black urban households and the housing cost burden of various groups of female-headed households. She received her Ph.D. from Ohio State University. Her research interests include the housing adjustment behavior of women and public policy. She has recently completed her thesis on the role of noncustodial parents in determining the quality of life of their children. She is also the recipient of the Tessie Agan Award for research excellence from the American Association of Housing Educators for a paper titled “Unterstanding Constraints and Residential Satisfaction among Low-Income Single-Parent Families.”     

Working Time,Gender and Family: An East‐West European Comparison

This article provides a comparison of three West European countries with five Central East European countries in respect of working time and the integration of work and family life. The countries are the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK in West Europe and Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia in Central East Europe. As well as providing an East–West comparison, the article also takes into account the differing institutional and policy contexts in the selected countries and the different routes to flexibility. A further aim of the article is to extend our understanding of the culture and values which underpin the organization of family and work in each country. Whilst there is a clear East–West divide, all eight countries demonstrate diverse routes to flexibility and different mixes of social policies and gender cultures which have lead to considerable differences in the integration of work and family life.     

Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.

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Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.

* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken.