The economic effects of large industrial undertakings on rual economies

This paper uses an adaptation of the input-output method to test the impact of large-scale industrial undertakings on comparatively small and sparsely-populated areas. It explains how, firstly, a model was built based upon a specimen rural area and including a series of vectors which allow local demand to change as incomes change. The model was then generalized so that data could be inserted to simulate any similar area. The paper then explains the results obtained from inserting a large-scale industrial activity into the model.     

Barriers to exercise behavior among older adults: a focus-group study

Longer life expectancy, rapid population growth, and low exercise-participation rates of adults 65 and older justify the need for better understanding of older adults' exercise behavior. The objectives of this focus-group study were to determine barriers to the exercise behavior of older adults. Six focus groups, three with exercisers and three with nonexercisers, were conducted at various sites throughout Rhode Island. The majority (n = 57) of the 66 individuals who participated were women, and all stated that they were 65 and older. Results from the focus-group data identified 13 barriers to exercise behavior. The most significant barriers mentioned by nonexercisers were fear of falling, inertia, and negative affect. Exercisers identified inertia, time constraints, and physical ailments as being the most significant barriers to exercise. Implications from these focus-group data can be useful in the development of exercise interventions for older adults, which could increase exercise participation.     

The withdrawal of the welfare state: Elderly care in Sweden in the 1990s

In Sweden, clear changes in the care of the elderly have occurred during the 1990s, with fewer people being provided public care, although greater efforts are now directed towards those most in need of help. Elderly people are cared for increasingly in other ways: by the family, by means of market-provided care, and by voluntary and informal means. Differences between municipalities are considerable. A comparative study was conducted in eight Swedish municipalities, four of them characterized by extensive reorganization of home-help services, and the other four constituting a reference group where such changes had not occurred. The aim was to examine processes of setting local priorities and adjustments in a period of marked structural change. Interviews with local politicians, administrators, professionals, and union representatives, and with the elderly themselves, were the main sources of data. The process of determining the extent and content of home care services in the municipalities was found to be a complex process, one involving a number of partly interdependent factors. Restructuring was found to be greatest in the context of a traditionally strong reliance on home-help services, rather than in the context of institutionalized care, where administrative decision-making and a medical and rehabilitative perspective dominated.     

Environmental governance in federal systems: the effects of capital competition and lobby groups

We argue that centralized and decentralized environmental governance yield equivalent environmental regulations. We model worker, environmental, and capital owner lobby groups that seek influence by offering political contributions. Worker lobbying in the decentralized case has an effect on environmental regulations identical to that of capital owner lobbying in the centralized case. This is because the aggregate effects of environmental regulations on income are equivalent under two institutional designs. Whereas workers carry the full burden in the decentralized case when capital competition occurs, the burden is shared with the capital owners in the centralized case. We present evidence consistent with our theory.     

Measuring uncertainty

The decision analysis approach to problem solving is widely documented. A range of articles and books have considered ways for analysing problems under uncertainty and also methods for formalising an individual's attitude towards risk in terms of cardinal utility measures. In order to carry out such analyses the uncertainty in any problem has to be explicitly quantified in probabilistic terms. The present article reviews procedures for assessing probabilities and proposes practical guidelines indicating those methods which, in the authors' opinion, are most fruitful for executives to use.     

Shipping in crisis: A trial run for ‘live’ application of the hypergame approach

Hypergame analysis has been developed recently as an aid to the understanding of complex situations in which several parties are in conflict. Until now, the approach has been applied successfully to a range of post hoc case studies. In this paper, we describe an attempt to take the approach one stage further, by applying it to a current problem with some involvement with one of the parties concerned. In this case the problem studied was a crisis in the shipping world. The original analysis was performed two years ago. Having outlined the analysis itself here, we discuss retrospectively its accuracy and usefulness in the light of further developments of the crisis. It is concluded that the approach performed a valuable role in helping to build up an understanding of the problem. As a result of this exercise some comments are made about the way in which we believe this sort of analysis should be used in practice by analysts to give help to their clients.