Screening for patients with alcohol problems: severity of patients identified by the CAGE.

Primary care physicians are well situated to identify patients with substance abuse problems and motivate them to seek appropriate assistance, but active programs are the exception. A study in a community setting was undertaken to assess the CAGE (the first letters of key words in a series of four questions about drinking: cut down; annoyed; guilty; and eye-opener), instrument in the routine screening for alcohol problems in both new and established patients. The screening process identified subjects for a pilot evaluation of a motivational interview designed to encourage problem-solving behavior. This article focuses on the screening results and the use of the CAGE instrument. During June and July of 1990, 687 patients of two primary care physicians belonging to a large group practice were asked to complete a health questionnaire that included the CAGE. Those who responded affirmatively to at least two of the four CAGE questions were requested to participate in follow-up assessment of problems associated with alcohol and health. The type and severity of alcohol problems experienced by patients who scored positive on the CAGE are described. Prevalence of a positive score on the CAGE was 8.6 percent with males, smokers, and blue collar and unemployed persons being more likely to score positive. The positive predictive value was .68. Primarily, persons with moderate alcohol problems were identified. Results show that the CAGE instrument is a useful screening device for identifying those with mild to moderate substance abuse problems, increasing the opportunity for intervention prior to serious medical complications. The instrument is easily administered, and has demonstrated relatively high levels of sensitivity and specificity. When combined with assessment and motivational interviews, the CAGE shows promise in the secondary prevention of substance abuse and related health problems.     

Congregational Composition and Explanations for Racial Inequality Among Black Religious Affiliates

Prior research suggests that congregational characteristics are associated with the racial attitudes of Black churchgoers. This study examines the relationship between congregational diversity and beliefs about the Black/White socioeconomic gap among Black religious adherents. Drawing upon pooled data from the General Social Survey and the National Congregations Study, we fit binary logistic regression models to estimate the association between congregational diversity and the explanations of Black/White economic inequality among Black religious adherents. Findings from our study reveal that congregational diversity is one factor that accounts for intragroup differences in racial attitudes among Black religious affiliates. Relative to Blacks that attend religious services in overwhelmingly Black congregations, Blacks that attend religious services in congregations that are overwhelmingly White are significantly less likely to attribute Black/White socioeconomic gaps to a lack of educational opportunities. Our study demonstrates that congregational diversity is a source of intragroup variation in racial attitudes among Black religious affiliates, which may attenuate the ability of such congregations to bridge racial divisions.     

Listening within the Social Contexts of Tutoring: Essential Component of the Mentoring Relationship

This qualitative research study targeted fourth grade at-risk children in a culturally diverse elementary school in a mid-sized city in the southwestern United States. The purpose of the study was to describe the nature of social interactions within the context of tutorial sessions and to describe the role of listening within the mentoring relationship. Major findings were that highly successful tutors were skillful communicators who modeled effective listening skills, used body language effectively, were knowledgeable about students' cultures, and possessed a social conscience.     

Rebates, inventories, and intertemporal price discrimination

We demonstrate that universally redeemed rebates can increase manufacturer profits by reducing the incentives of downstream retailers to hoard inventories when optimal wholesale prices vary predictably over time. By bypassing retailers and making direct contracts with buyers, the manufacturer can increase the variations in effective prices paid by consumers without concomitantly creating larger incentives for retailers to hold inventories. During profitable, high-demand periods, manufacturer revenues are ordinarily constrained by'competition'from retailer inventories, thus limiting profits. However, by selectively offering rebates to consumers while maintaining high wholesale prices, low-demand periods can be accommodated without inducing retailer hoarding.     

Are elderly drivers a road hazard?: Problem definition and political impact

Elderly drivers are increasing in number and some statistics show they are more likely to be involved in fatal accidents than all other age groups but those under 25. States have attempted to address the problem in various ways, but very few have required mandatory retesting at license renewal for those beyond a particular age. Why have so few states chosen to act? The key is how the issue is framed for the public and decision makers. Several phases of problem definition are explored to explain the political dynamics of the older driver issue: incidence, causality, severity, crisis labeling, problem population characteristics, and linkage of values to the issue and solutions. Based upon this analysis, it is not surprising that elder interest groups have been successful in containing policy initiatives designed to restrict elderly driving.     

全球经济及其理论辨析

由关贸总协定、世界贸易组织、世界银行、欧共体、美洲自由贸易区等国际协定和跨国公司体现的世界经济一体化是由私有化进程和打破区域垄断的自由主义经济目标推动的不可逆转的趋势。在这一过程之中经济和经济学成了世界的结构信息。经济学的两个预设———自私自利的经济人和人的世界———非人世界的二元论是全球经济的深层理论基石。经济人的实践活动造成贫富不均 ,二元论把人溺爱成肆无忌惮地破坏环境的动物。人类应该冷静思索这一新的世界形势 ,提出合理对策     

走向共同体经济学

批判了现代经济学给人类发展带来的弊端,认为现代经济理论只是追求经济的增长,这不利于人类的可持续发展,并提出了生态经济学的发展方向,主张经济发展应以人类共同体的福祉为目标。     

Approximating probability density functions in hybrid Bayesian networks with mixtures of truncated exponentials

Mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTE) potentials are an alternative to discretization and Monte Carlo methods for solving hybrid Bayesian networks. Any probability density function (PDF) can be approximated by an MTE potential, which can always be marginalized in closed form. This allows propagation to be done exactly using the Shenoy-Shafer architecture for computing marginals, with no restrictions on the construction of a join tree. This paper presents MTE potentials that approximate standard PDF’s and applications of these potentials for solving inference problems in hybrid Bayesian networks. These approximations will extend the types of inference problems that can be modelled with Bayesian networks, as demonstrated using three examples.     

Electronics: The new revolution

Electronics has produced a succession of remarkable accomplishments within the lifetime of living men. Yet, new developments in the field are so vast and exciting that they may be viewed as the advent of an Electronic Revolution comparable to the Industrial Revolution.