Missing data and forecasting in multivariate time series: An application of the common components dynamic linear model

Summary The paper deals with missing data and forecasting problems in multivariate time series making use of the Common Components Dynamic Linear Model (DLMCC), presented in Quintana (1985), and West and Harrison (1989). Some results are presented and discussed: exploiting the correlation between series, estimated by the DLMCC, the paper shows as it is possible to update state vector posterior distributions for the unobserved series. This is realized on the base of the updating of the observed series state vectors, for which the usual Kalman filter equations can be applied. An application concerning some Italian private consumption series provides an example of the model capabilities.     

The evaluation of DNA evidence in pedigrees requiring population inference

Summary. The evaluation of nuclear DNA evidence for identification purposes is performed here taking account of the uncertainty about population parameters. Graphical models are used to detail the hypotheses being debated in a trial with the aim of obtaining a directed acyclic graph. Graphs also clarify the set of evidence that contributes to population inferences and they also describe the conditional independence structure of DNA evidence. Numerical illustrations are provided by re-examining three case-studies taken from the literature. Our calculations of the weight of evidence differ from those given by the authors of case-studies in that they reveal more conservative values.     

The disenchantment of Bitcoin: unveiling the myth of a digital currency

Bitcoin and its peculiar, decentralized transaction system, have already ignited interest by professional and retail traders in search for profits and by economists and legal experts, looking for possible regulation to contain illegal uses. We instead examine the unexpected and ongoing success of Bitcoin from a sociological perspective, first questioning its unusual legitimation system, backed by the so called ‘blockchain technology’, instead of by governmental authorities. Then we collect data and elements to reconstruct Bitcoin’s history as a cryptocurrency, starting from the mysterious story surrounding its birth. We then follow its spread and development through social networks and words of mouth, together with its sudden booms and bursts, finally to suggest that both users and institutional regulators should be aware of the risks of Bitcoin and of its alleged power to challenge our very notion of money.     

School‐to‐Work Transition of Career and Technical Education Graduates

This study analyzed the career development of career and technical education (CTE) high school graduates during their school‐to‐work transition, specifically their adaptability in the face of barriers. Forty graduates (22 men, 18 women) from working‐class backgrounds participated in baseline surveys at graduation and phenomenological interviews 1 year postgraduation. Primary themes were job loss altered career plans, whereas relevant jobs propelled career development; limited access to college constrained options, whereas college experience expanded options; graduates experienced the loss of education‐related support, and CTE served as a backup plan. Teachers and school counselors emphasized organizational barriers including limited staffing for upper level math courses and inconsistent workplace partnerships.     

Career Aspirations and Expectations of Black,Mexican American,and White Students

The career aspirations and expectations of Black, Mexican American, and White college freshmen were examined. In addition, students' career expectations were compared to the jobs available in the labor market. Results suggested that (a) there seem to be more gender than ethnic differences in students' career aspirations and expectations, (b) differences in the career aspirations and expectations among Mexican American and White students followed traditional gender patterns, and (c) with some exceptions, the career expectations of students resembled the distribution of jobs in the labor market.     

Why females live longer than males: control of longevity by sex hormones

Females live longer than males in many species, including humans. We have traced a possible explanation for this phenomenon to the beneficial action of estrogens, which bind to estrogen receptors and increase the expression of longevity-associated genes, including those encoding the antioxidant enzymes superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase. As a result, mitochondria from females produce fewer reactive oxygen species than those from males. Administering estrogens has serious drawbacks, however--they are feminizing (and thus cannot be administered to males) and may increase the incidence of serious diseases such as uterine cancer in postmenopausal women. Phytoestrogens, which are present in soy or wine, may have some of the favorable effects of estrogens without their undesirable effects. Study of gender differences in longevity may help us to understand the basic processes of aging and to devise practical strategies to increase the longevity of both females and males.     

The role of human and social board capital in driving CSR reporting

The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of the professional, technical and relational background (human and social capital) of outside directors on promoting firm CSR disclosure. Following the Hillman et al. (2000) taxonomy of board members, we classify outside directors as business experts, support specialists and community influential, and examine whether business and technical expertise or political ties in the boardroom affect CSR disclosure.This study confirms that not all outside directors are equally effective in improving CSR disclosure and that only certain kinds of outside directors, those classified as support specialists, help promote it. On the other hand, our findings also show that directors with previous experience as politicians affect CSR disclosure negatively, probably due to their interests in safeguarding their reputation within the company, in avoiding public scrutiny and in protecting their political connections. In addition, our set of analysis with interaction effects reveals that powerful CEOs have the incentive to promote CSR-related strategies and to convince business experts and support specialist directors to enhance profitable sustainability strategies and transparency in CSR disclosure. Nevertheless, the powerful CEO effect is not enough to compensate the negative role of political directors on CSR reporting. Therefore, this paper supports the theories in favor of analyzing the multiple configurations of corporate governance mechanisms by adopting a holistic approach, and the need to combine these configurations in order to analyze their impact on CSR behavior.     

Mapuche education and situated learning in a community school in Chile

The article analyses the Mapuche language and culture teaching practices of a rural school in the Chilean Araucanía region run by Mapuche teachers, aimed at reinforcing the language, culture and identity of children. Based on a comparative study of two school ethnographies, the article shows and discusses the ways children learn to be Mapuche by participating of social and communitarian practices reproduced in school. While teaching of traditional core subjects is conducted in standard ways, Mapuche language and culture are taught through the recreation of modes of living, producing and reproducing indigenous traditional knowledge that normally occur in family and community. The maintenance of this ‘bicultural pedagogy’ is grounded on an epistemological claim on the indivisibility of contents from its forms of transmission.