Improving Risk Management: From Lame Excuses to Principled Practice

The three classic pillars of risk analysis are risk assessment (how big is the risk and how sure can we be?), risk management (what shall we do about it?), and risk communication (what shall we say about it, to whom, when, and how?). We propose two complements as important parts of these three bases: risk attribution (who or what addressable conditions actually caused an accident or loss?) and learning from experience about risk reduction (what works, and how well?). Failures in complex systems usually evoke blame, often with insufficient attention to root causes of failure, including some aspects of the situation, design decisions, or social norms and culture. Focusing on blame, however, can inhibit effective learning, instead eliciting excuses to deflect attention and perceived culpability. Productive understanding of what went wrong, and how to do better, thus requires moving past recrimination and excuses. This article identifies common blame‐shifting “lame excuses” for poor risk management. These generally contribute little to effective improvements and may leave real risks and preventable causes unaddressed. We propose principles from risk and decision sciences and organizational design to improve results. These start with organizational leadership. More specifically, they include: deliberate testing and learning—especially from near‐misses and accident precursors; careful causal analysis of accidents; risk quantification; candid expression of uncertainties about costs and benefits of risk‐reduction options; optimization of tradeoffs between gathering additional information and immediate action; promotion of safety culture; and mindful allocation of people, responsibilities, and resources to reduce risks. We propose that these principles provide sound foundations for improving successful risk management.     

In Search of the Optimum Harvey Wallbanger Recipe via Mixture Experiment Techniques

A Harvey Wallbanger is an alcoholic drink composed of three ingredients: orange juice, vodka, and Galliano. One of the authors (Sahrmann), a connoisseur of the libation, was perplexed upon discovering that different bartender handbooks listed different recipes for the drink. Determined to shed some light on this irksome problem, he issued invitations for an evening workshop session (party) to former and current attendees of an experimental-design training course taught within his company. A mixture experiment was designed and data collected using the class participants. This article describes the experimental design and the analysis of the data. The results of the experiment indicate that reducing the proportion of vodka produces better-flavored drinks. The results of the experiment were not entirely conclusive, however, so recommendations are made for future experimentation.     

Stranger to Desire: Entering the Erotic Field

Founded in infancy but continuing throughout adult life, subsymbolic body patterns form a crucial, unconscious element in the infrastructure of our intimate and erotic lives. Viewing the psychoanalytic relationship, at its foundation, as a somatic dyad, this essay explores the life of the body as well as that of the mind in a psychoanalytic exploration. Drawing from the clinical literature of body-centered psychotherapy and the work of Wilhelm Reich, this article presents a detailed case discussion to illustrate the use of body-centered interventions within a psychoanalytically informed psychotherapy.     

Student homicidal violence in schools: an international problem

School homicides have been become a worldwide phenomenon. In the decade following the Columbine shooting there have been at least forty similar events in other countries. This article addresses the international scope of this problem and some of the complex conceptual issues that make student homicidal violence difficult to define and study. Meaningful research on risk and protective factors that can inform evidence-based preventive models is summarized.     

Which countries protect intellectual property? The case of software piracy

Using data on software piracy, we examine how protection of intellectual property varies across countries. Consistent with other studies, we find that intellectual property receives greater protection in developed economies; high-income countries have lower piracy rates. We also find that protection depends on cultural factors. Countries with an individualist culture have lower piracy rates than do countries with a collectivist culture. Piracy rates are also lower in countries that have strong institutions that enforce contracts and protect property from expropriation. These results suggest that national policies toward intellectual property reflect not only economic concerns but also national culture and institutions.     

Using movement: how Beijing's post-1989 artists capitalized on a city in flux

The 1990s are often described as a time of political retreat by artists and intellectuals in China, immediately following the protests at Tiananmen Square in 1989 and their bloody crackdown. The 1990s were also, however, a time of dramatic spatial and social flux in the country, characterized by radical urbanization, widespread demolition of the built environment and mass rural to urban migration.

This paper considers the political activities of Chinese artists during the 1990s and early 2000s, yet does so with a focus on their spatial engagements, arguing that these constituted a new, necessary and highly productive mode of political work at this time. Describing a number of relatively self-made artists’ colonies that appeared in Beijing in the early 1990s, and tracing these through to their semi-institutionalization (as ‘creative industries precincts’) by the Chinese Communist Party in the mid-2000s, it demonstrates alternative means by which China's artists continued to intervene in the negotiation of a Chinese modernity, once the possibilities for discursive engagement had been largely foreclosed.

Drawing on archival research, personal interviews and literature in art history as well as cultural, urban and policy studies, this analysis thus tells a spatial history of this period often historicized as the development of ‘Contemporary Chinese Art’. Importantly, this paper also seeks to offer new political imaginaries, pressing against expectations that Chinese artists be revolutionary or openly oppositional, and illustrating modes of political intervention that instead work creatively and discreetly with the movements of institutional and physical change.     

I/I-Thou/It: Muriel Dimen as Clinician

ABSTRACT

Drawing upon Muriel Dimen’s paper “Reflections on Cure, or ‘I/Thou/It’” (2010) as my primary point of reference and departure, I attempt to characterize her style of clinical thinking and of her clinical questionings of herself, analytic practices, and the consequences of theoretical predilections. Central to Dimen’s considerations in these clinical essays are reflections on termination, self-analysis, the limits of the two-person model, the therapist’s narcissistic vulnerability, sexuality, and the body.     

Ultimate Extinction of the Promiscuous Bisexual Galton—Watson Metapopulation

A variant of a sexual Gallon–Watson process is considered. At each generation the population is partitioned among n‘hosts’ (population patches) and individual members mate at random only with others within the same host. This is appropriate for many macroparasite systems, and at low parasite loads it gives rise to a depressed rate of reproduction relative to an asexual system, due to the possibility that females are unmated. It is shown that stochasticity mitigates against this effect, so that for small initial populations the probability of ultimate extinction (the complement of an ‘epidemic’) displays a tradeoff as a function of n between the strength of fluctuations which overcome this ‘mating’ probability, and the probability of the subpopulation in one host being ‘rescued’ by that in another. Complementary approximations are developed for the extinction probability: an asymptotically exact approximation at large n, and for small n a short‐time probability that is exact in the limit where the mean number of offspring per parent is large.