Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

On the mathematics of the Jeffreys–Lindley paradox

This paper is concerned with the well known Jeffreys–Lindley paradox. In a Bayesian set up, the so-called paradox arises when a point null hypothesis is tested and an objective prior is sought for the alternative hypothesis. In particular, the posterior for the null hypothesis tends to one when the uncertainty, i.e., the variance, for the parameter value goes to infinity. We argue that the appropriate way to deal with the paradox is to use simple mathematics, and that any philosophical argument is to be regarded as irrelevant.     

Psychological Well‐Being and Career Indecision in Emerging Adulthood: The Moderating Role of Hardiness

This study investigated the moderating role of hardiness in the relationship between psychological well‐being (PWB) and career indecision in 131 never‐employed Italian emerging adults. Cluster analytic methods produced high and low hardiness profiles. A structural equation modeling analysis underscored the importance of hardiness for moderating the negative association between PWB and career indecision. Specifically, findings revealed that being hardy is a crucial relevant personal resource in the presence of lower levels of PWB. The authors discuss the importance of analyzing simultaneously the role of PWB and hardiness in promoting engagement in the career decision‐making process and provide implications for setting up appropriate career counseling interventions with emerging adults. Suggestions for future research are presented, such as the use of longitudinal designs and qualitative methods.     

A note on the posterior inference for the Yule–Simon distribution

The Yule–Simon distribution has been out of the radar of the Bayesian community, so far. In this note, we propose an explicit Gibbs sampling scheme when a Gamma prior is chosen for the shape parameter. The performance of the algorithm is illustrated with simulation studies, including count data regression, and a real data application to text analysis. We compare our proposal to the frequentist counterparts showing better performance of our algorithm when a small sample size is considered.     

Ridge regression: A multivariate analysis of criminal activity

The objective of the paper is to apply the statistical procedure of ridge regression to a multivariate model of criminal activity. The explanatory variables are of an economic, apprehension, and seasonal nature. The Time Shared Reactive On Line Laboratory (TROLL) computer package was used in estimating all regression coefficients and other pertinent statistics. The economic variables, which included per capita personal income, hours worked, and plant closing dummy variable, were found to be statistically related to criminal activity. In addition, police expenditures as well as the three seasonal dummy variables were statistically associated with the dependent variable. A comparison is made between the results obtained from the ordinary least squares procedure and the ridge regression approach.     

Social-cognitive determinants of physical activity attendance in older adults

The present study evaluated whether, and to what extent, the constructs implicated in the theory of planned behavior could predict behavioral intention to exercise and exercise-class attendance of older adults (age 65-90 years) already enrolled in a physical activity program. The study also evaluated whether including self-efficacy judgments might improve the predictive capacity of the model. Participants (N = 1,095) were randomly sampled Italian volunteers from exercise classes for older adults. First, they completed questionnaires assessing the above-mentioned constructs. Then, class attendance was recorded during the following 3 months. Results indicated a substantial correspondence between the model and the data. Perceived behavioral control and self-efficacy were the strongest predictors of behavioral intention, whereas attitudes and subjective norms only partially contributed to its prediction. The inclusion of self-efficacy improved the predictive capacity of the overall model. Finally, results showed a weak relation between behavioral intention and attendance rate in physical activity sessions.     

Giddens’ structuration theory and its implications for management accounting research

The purpose of this essay is to briefly review the pillars and the rationale of Giddens’ theory of structuration, and offer a snapshot of the impact of these ideas on research in management accounting. Conceptualised as a way of making sense of social life, structuration theory represents a sensitizing device for researchers, which has be drawn upon “in a selective way in thinking about research questions or interpreting findings” (Giddens, Modernity and self-identity: Self and society in the late modern age, 1991). In the following pages the duality of structure, the modalities of structuration, the concept of double positioning, the theory of the subject as well as concepts such as ontological security, routines or trust will be reviewed as essential elements of a vocabulary originally framed within Giddens’ The constitution of society (1984). The essay ends sketching the work of Macintosh and Scapens (Management accounting and control systems—an organisational and behavioural approach, 1990), who broke new ground to interpret management accounting systems in light of structuration theory terms and concepts, as well as some of the more recent works in accounting that have built on Giddens’ latest ideas on the The Consequences of Modernity (1990).

Social stability challenged by Covid-19: Pandemics,inequality and policy responses

The public health measures implemented to limit the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to affect economic inequalities. In this paper we first provide a theoretical framework to analyse how income inequality contributes shaping the trade-off between economic lockdown and contagion. Our empirical analysis on EU countries shows that the lockdown is likely to significantly increase inequality and poverty and that the magnitude of the change is larger in more unequal countries. To avoid social collapse, countries must consider inequality as an additional source of fragility, while supranational, coordinated health and fiscal policies are needed in the interest of all European economies.