SURVEY EVIDENCE ON EXCESSIVE PUBLIC PESSIMISM ABOUT THE FUTURE BEHAVIOR OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Two of the questions in the Surveys of Consumer Attitudes undertakenby the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigandeal with households' expectations about inflation and the changein unemployment. We compare quarterly time series of the meanresponses with the actual behavior of inflation and unemploymentto see whether households are overly optimistic or pessimisticabout the future behavior of inflation and unemployment. Wefind an asymmetry. Over the 21 years of our analysis, on averagethe public is neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimisticabout future inflation. However, the public has been significantlytoo pessimistic about the future behavior of unemployment. Theseresults have an important implication for macroeconomic policy.If politicians respond to complaints from the public about inflationand unemployment they will target policy instruments at unemploymentto a greater extent than if the public was not so pessimisticabout the behavior of unemployment. The result may be a higherrate of inflation than if the public were not mistakenly pessimisticabout the behavior of unemployment.     

清代女性“和友诗”论

清代知识女性在社会中的地位有所提高,生活圈子也相对宽泛,女性之间交往增多,尤其是结社唱和之风的兴盛,使得她们有机会在同性之间建立一种志同道合、惺惺相惜的友谊,使之成为家庭之外不可或缺的情感寄托。她们在同声相应、同气相求的诗词唱和中切磋文学艺术的技艺,共同抵御来自男权社会的精神压抑,从中获得情感的慰藉和审美的享受。