Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

Population growth and economic development

The paper deals with the relationship between the population growth and economic development in Yugoslavia and its republics, covering the period after the Second World War. Yugoslavia is a developing country with a specific demographic and economic structure which makes her unique in Europe. Its territory is comprised of both relatively developed regions where demographic transition is over, and underdeveloped regions with high natural increase of population where the demographic transition is only just beginning. Correlation and regression methods were used to quantify this relationship. The economic development and structural changes are discussed, relating to human factor. An adequate population policy through family planning is stressed as important in obtaining an increased return to scale with a more positive role of demographic factor.     

Did Wars Make Nation‐States in the Balkans?: Nationalisms,Wars and States in the 19th and early 20th Century South East Europe

Nationalism and protracted warfare are often seen as the most important impediments to social advancement in the Balkans. In contrast to these popular perceptions I argue that for much of its history the Balkan region was characterised by limited inter‐state violence and by notable lack of nationalist ideologies. Furthermore by comparing the processes of state and nation formation and warfare in the South East Europe with those in the Western Europe the article aims to show that it is the weakness, not the strength, of nationalism and protracted warfare that historically have been the principal obstacles for social development. The general argument of the paper is developed in dialogue with Tilly's theory that ties state formation to proliferation of wars and Gellner's model that links the rise of nationalism to emergence of standardised educational systems and industrialisation. In an attempt to partially disprove Tilly and vindicate Gellner I argue that the experience of the Balkan region indicates that although wars can prove important catalysts of state formation they may not necessarily contribute to nation formation.     

On MLEs of the parameters of a modified Weibull distribution based on record values

The modified Weibull distribution can be used quite effectively to model complex data from mechanical engineering or survival analysis studies that posses a monotonic or a bathtub-shape hazard rate. In this paper, we study the MLEs of the parameters of a modified Weibull distribution model in the presence of upper kth record values. The existence and uniqueness of the MLEs are proven in this case. Real data analysis is performed for illustrative purposes.     

The relationship between reputation,employer branding and corporate social responsibility

Reputation management requires coordination between internal understanding and external expectations (Cornelissen, 2011). The focus of this study were external expectations of potential employees. The main goal of the study was to contribute to the understanding of corporate reputation and its connections with perceived corporate social responsibility and employer brands. All three concepts were investigated amongst 550 senior college business students. The units of analysis were top twenty national organizations, rated according to a syndicated study on employer attractiveness. The results show that students assign good reputation to those organizations that are perceived as socially responsible and with a good employer brand. Reputation, at least according to our results, seems to be the umbrella concept that encompasses both perceived corporate social responsibility and perceived employer brands. Organizations that develop different strategies, policies and practices with regards to socially responsible behavior and nurturing employer brands have higher levels of perceived reputation among students. Additionally, students' perceptions and position on the list of the most attractive employers is consistent.     

Housing of Seniors in the Czech Republic: Challenges for Social Services

The article focuses on the housing market, the behavior and motivations of senior households to move or to stay in place. Knowing if and why seniors decide to move at retirement is a critical factor for the establishment of social service policies in terms of their structure, location, and provision.

This study uses secondary data based on information about Czech households collected by the Czech Statistical Office (CSO). The data are annually collected via sample surveys of the income and living conditions of households (EU-SILC). The sample covers more than eight thousands of households. Analyzed data cover the period 2007–2012 when the abolishment of rent regulation in the Czech Republic took place. It is hypothesized that an impact like this might increase the willingness to move and reveal the factors which underlie the decisions of particular households.

The results indicated that most Czech households that decided to move during the study period were driven by the increased financial burden of housing. Other factors, including the availability of social services and public utilities within the current location, played only minor roles. It seems that Czech senior households act in a very pragmatic and rational manner when deciding whether to stay in place or move, with the majority of households preferring not to move. Social policies should, therefore, concentrate on providing services for the current locations rather than on the construction of new social housing.     

Welfare State and Social Enterprise in Transition: Evidence from Serbia

This paper analyses welfare regime changes in Serbia and their impact on social enterprise development in the last two decades. We cover the period of significant transition-related reforms within the welfare state, with important implications on the position of these enterprises. Using data gathered from the qualitative field research, our study shows that there are two broad groups of factors that are important for development of the new generation of social enterprises, those that emerged in the last decade with an idea to foster entrepreneurial spirit and expanded into new domains other than those providing assistance to the marginalized groups. First, their decision to enter the social economy sector still depends on the environment created by the state. Secondly, their sustainability is affected by the factors typically found in any other enterprise of comparable scale like business skills, capacity to form networks and partner with relevant stakeholders.     

Adaptive multiple importance sampling for Gaussian processes

In applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. This is normally done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which require repeated expensive calculations involving the marginal likelihood. Motivated by the desire to avoid the inefficiencies of MCMC algorithms rejecting a considerable amount of expensive proposals, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). In particular, this paper studies the application of AMIS for GPs in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes a novel pseudo-marginal-based AMIS algorithm for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios.