Dynamic approach to linear statistical calibration with an application in microwave radiometry

The problem of statistical calibration of a measuring instrument can be framed both in a statistical context as well as in an engineering context. In the first, the problem is dealt with by distinguishing between the ‘classical’ approach and the ‘inverse’ regression approach. Both of these models are static models and are used to estimate exact measurements from measurements that are affected by error. In the engineering context, the variables of interest are considered to be taken at the time at which you observe it. The Bayesian time series analysis method of Dynamic Linear Models can be used to monitor the evolution of the measures, thus introducing a dynamic approach to statistical calibration. The research presented employs a new approach to performing statistical calibration. A simulation study in the context of microwave radiometry is conducted that compares the dynamic model to traditional static frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The focus of the study is to understand how well the dynamic statistical calibration method performs under various signal-to-noise ratios, r.     

Human Capital Disparities and Earnings Inequality in The Portuguese Private Labour Market

Social Indicators Research - This paper examines human capital inequality and how it relates to earnings inequality in Portugal using data from Quadros de Pessoal for the period 1986–2017....     

State Fragility and Governance: Conflict Mitigation and Subnational Perspectives

Many drivers of intrastate conflict concern the relationship between the state and society, and thus are influenced by the quality of governance. Efforts to restore or create good governance, however, have adopted a relatively standardised democratising template. This article argues that conflict mitigation is a useful mechanism for adapting this template to conditions in fragile states. Furthermore, subnational reforms have important potential to mitigate the drivers identified in quantitative studies of conflict, as illustrated by selected experiences with decentralisation, citizen participation and local service delivery. The analysis confirms the important contributions both of quantitative research that has identified causal factors driving conflict and of qualitative study that has explored governance reforms that can address those factors.     

Radiocarbon peat chronologies and environmental change

Summary.  Raised bog peat deposits form important archives for reconstructing past changes in climate. Precise and reliable age models are of vital importance for interpreting such archives. We propose enhanced, Markov chain Monte Carlo based methods for obtaining age models from radiocarbon-dated peat cores, based on the assumption of piecewise linear accumulation. Included are automatic choice of sections, a measure of the goodness of fit and outlier downweighting. The approach is illustrated by using a peat core from the Netherlands.     

On variable bandwidth selection in local polynomial regression

The performances of data-driven bandwidth selection procedures in local polynomial regression are investigated by using asymptotic methods and simulation. The bandwidth selection procedures considered are based on minimizing 'prelimit' approximations to the (conditional) mean-squared error (MSE) when the MSE is considered as a function of the bandwidth h . We first consider approximations to the MSE that are based on Taylor expansions around h=0 of the bias part of the MSE. These approximations lead to estimators of the MSE that are accurate only for small bandwidths h . We also consider a bias estimator which instead of using small h approximations to bias naïvely estimates bias as the difference of two local polynomial estimators of different order and we show that this estimator performs well only for moderate to large h . We next define a hybrid bias estimator which equals the Taylor-expansion-based estimator for small h and the difference estimator for moderate to large h . We find that the MSE estimator based on this hybrid bias estimator leads to a bandwidth selection procedure with good asymptotic and, for our Monte Carlo examples, finite sample properties.     

The Socioeconomic Incorporation of Immigrant and Native‐born Day Labourers in Tshwane,South Africa

It has been widely documented that unauthorized immigrants experience adverse economic incorporation in destination countries, particularly in the global North. Faced with restricted employment opportunities, many are drawn into informalizing segments of the labour market where earnings are low and unstable. Much less is known about how immigrant workers fare in the informal economy of cities of the South. Using surveys conducted in 2004, 2007 and 2015, we examine the economic outcomes of immigrant and native‐born workers who participate in the day labour markets of Tshwane, South Africa. In 2004 there were signs that foreign‐born workers enjoyed modestly better outcomes than South Africa‐born workers. In the latter periods, however, these advantages have disappeared and there are indications of a downward convergence of employment outcomes. The article concludes with a call for creating worker centres to regulate informal job markets for the benefit of workers, regardless of immigration status.     

Civil Society Capacity Building for Democratic Reform: Experience and Lessons from Indonesia

This article examines civil society strengthening experience in Indonesia to illuminate issues, challenges, and lessons for non-governmental organization (NGO) capacity building and international donor-supported democratic reform. The authors conceive of capacity as a function of contextual factors, and internal factors associated with an individual NGO or a network of NGOs. Contextual factors that need to be taken into account in Indonesia include weak reform implementation, state distrust of NGOs, and backsliding on some basic freedoms. Among the important internal features of NGOs in democracy promotion are overreliance on confrontational advocacy strategies, shallow organizational capacity, inability to cooperate to leverage impact, limited outreach to indigenous constituencies and sustainability problems. Indonesia’s democracy-promotion NGO coalitions have largely operated as instruments of donor-supported reforms. As they seek to become socially embedded actors pursuing indigenous agendas, they face the need to confront the various expectations of their stakeholders regarding their roles and legitimacy, develop flexibility to respond to new engagements with government and with citizens, and address their internal capacity gaps. Three cases are presented that illustrate both the problems and the encouraging progress with government–NGO collaborations in democratic governance.