Simulating the effect of demographic events on the household composition

The aim of this paper is to measure the effects on household composition of changes in demographic events, e.g. mortality, fertility, marriage, divorce. British household data are taken from the General Household Survey and aged by simulation to 2001 using a ‘Most Likely’ model. Subsequently different assumptions of each demographic event are taken from 1991 so that the effects of perturbations within each event can be studied. Special features of the simulation model are the differentiations between cohabitation and marriage and separation and divorce, and the detailed breakdowns of household types such as lone parents into single and previously married women and men with children aged 0–4, 5–15 and 16 and over.     

Fading Frames: Data Presentation and Framing Effects*

This article describes three experiments that investigate the impact of data presentation on framing, which is the differential evaluation of objectively equivalent information given different frames of reference. The experiments were designed to vary the amount of information and the format of presentation (tables versus graphs) provided to the decision maker to gain an understanding of the mechanism underlying framing. The inferred information model proposed by Johnson and Levin [11] is utilized to explain the results of the three experiments in terms of the redistribution of weights attached by the decision makers to the attributes of the prospective outcomes. The results of the three experiments indicate that framing effects are observed only when the presentation of data facilitates the shifting of weights among the attributes of the available alternatives. The results further indicate that framing is eliminated as more information is displayed. However, presentation of additional information does not eliminate framing when a graphical format is utilized. Finally, no framing effects are observed when uneven amounts of information are used to describe two alternatives in the same decision task.     

Palm snags are a critical nesting resource for woodpeckers in an urbanized tropical region

Urban Ecosystems - Critical resources for birds nesting in cities can support populations in spite of the challenges imposed by urbanization, and the identification of such resources can shed light...     

THE FUTURE OF SOCIAL SECURITY

(with an introduction by Daniel L. McFadden) The past and the present processes leading to social security legislation inform expectations regarding the future of social security, and with international comparisons, provide lessons to those who would learn them. (JEL H55)     

A methodological strategy for a one-number census in the UK

As a result of lessons learnt from the 1991 census, a research programme was set up to seek improvements in census methodology. Underenumeration has been placed top of the agenda in this programme, and every effort is being made to achieve as high a coverage as possible in the 2001 census. In recognition, however, that 100% coverage will never be achieved, the one-number census (ONC) project was established to measure the degree of underenumeration in the 2001 census and, if possible, to adjust fully the outputs from the census for that undercount. A key component of this adjustment process is a census coverage survey (CCS). This paper presents an overview of the ONC project, focusing on the design and analysis methodology for the CCS. It also presents results that allow the reader to evaluate the robustness of this methodology.     

The Statistics of Simulating Chaos

When simulating a dynamical system, the computation is actually of a spatially discretized system, because finite machine arithmetic replaces continuum state space. For chaotic dynamical systems, the discretized simulations often have collapsing effects, to a fixed point or to short cycles. Statistical properties of these phenomena can be modelled with random mappings with an absorbing centre. The model gives results which are very much in line with computational experiments. The effects are discussed with special reference to the family of mappings f (x)=1-|1-2x|,x [0,1],1,<,,<,. Computer experiments show close agreement with predictions of the model.     

FATHERS’ USE OF LEAVE IN AUSTRALIA

This paper examines Australian fathers’ use of leave at the time of the birth of a child, drawing on data from The Parental Leave in Australia Survey, conducted in 2005, and a subsequent organizational case study. Our analysis shows that although most Australian fathers take some leave for parental purposes, use of formally designated paternity or parental leave is limited. This is unsurprising given the Australian policy framework, which lacks legislative provision for paid paternity or parental leave, and does not require any of the shared unpaid parental-leave entitlement to be reserved for fathers. Use of leave is shown to be influenced primarily by fathers’ employment characteristics, with those working in small organizations or non-permanent positions least likely to utilize paternity or other forms of leave. Overall, the analysis suggests that improvements in the policy framework would increase Australian fathers’ propensity to take parental leave, but highlights barriers to usage associated with labour market divisions and career pressures that will not be solved solely by the adoption of more progressive leave policies.     

Back on Your Feet: An Interpretation of an EPUY

The Educational Programme for Unemployed Youth (EPUY) is a federal government scheme which assists the states to run courses for unemployed school leavers. The Queensland course, ‘Skills for Working and Living’, takes sixteen weeks. Participant observation provides an ethnographic look at one of these programmes at the Brisbane Catering College. From the time allocation by course planners, personal development was not officially considered crucially important, though it was to the teachers who were predominantly women. The staff were part time, consisting of Technical and Further Education, College of Advanced Education and temporary teachers. The fifteen students (seven girls and eight youths) ranged in age from 14 to 19 years. The course is selectively described in terms of two central events: the first two weeks; and the final weeks before graduation. A positive group climate developed only very slowly because of various constraints. However, the students reported increased feelings of self-worth and personal effectiveness and they acknowledged staff friendliness and perseverance. During the course and within a month of its completion, eight of the unemployed got jobs. Such schemes deserve encouragement.     

THE METRICS OF STYLE: ADAM SMITH TEACHES EFFICIENT RHETORIC

Does style matter for economic writing? Several stylistic characteristics of ninety-seven AEA presidential addresses, including word length, sentence length and percent of sentences in the passive voice, were computed and used to explain citations to these economists' work. Avoidance of the passive is an old stylistic norm given by Adam Smith. Word length and sentence length serve as modern stylistic norms. Only the percent passive matters to explain citations. Perhaps not coincidentally, while writing clarity in our data set has declined over time when measured by the new norm, it has improved when measured by the old norm.