An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Internal migration plays a critical role in subnational population projections. The multiregional model is often seen as a gold standard, for its capacity to project several interconnected regions simultaneously and coherently. However, undesirable effects may occur when assumptions of constant transition probabilities are used. This paper investigates these limits, explores a few solutions provided in the literature and describes the alternative methodology used by Statistics Canada in its most recent edition of population projections for the Canadian provinces and territories. Among other things, the new method is shown to improve the consistency between internal migration assumptions and results and to facilitate the projection of the uncertainty associated with this component.     

Long‐Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

We analyze the direct and indirect demographic contribution of immigration to the foreign‐origin composition of the Canadian population according to various projection scenarios over a century, from 2006 to 2106. More specifically, we use Statistics Canada's Demosim microsimulation model to assess the long‐term sensitivity to immigration levels and the frequency of mixed unions of the share of immigrants in Canada and of persons who have at least one ancestor who arrived after 2006. The results of the simulations show that the population renewal process through immigration happens at a fast pace in a high immigration and low fertility country such as Canada. Under the scenarios developed, immigrants who entered after 2006 and their descendants could form the majority of the population by 2058 at the earliest and by 2079 at the latest and could represent between 62 percent and 88 percent in 2106. They also show that mixed unions are a key element of the speed at which the changes are likely to occur in the long run.     

The reconstruction of childhood–implications for theory and practice

First, the article deals with selected aspects of change that have framed the lives of contemporary families and children in Scandinavia: urbanization; secularization and norm-pluralism; changes in work-conditions; ideologies about the role of mothers; structural changes in family patterns; and the modern professionalization of care. Second, how change induces a crisis in the grand developmental approach within child psychology is investigated. It is argued that any a priori universal and non-contextual derived type of knowledge about development fails to grasp what is going on within families and in care and socialization in rapidly changing cultures such as Scandinavia and other Western European countries. An alternative paradigm is presented that should make us better able to understand development as embedded in culture and time. Third, some new challenges for educating the skilled practitioner are focused upon. Here reflective competence will be addressed: expertise as an ‘eternal process of inquiry; the ability to use multi-based and often conflicting knowledge about families and children in order to solve problems in everyday situations; the strengthened emphasis on the practitioner-as-person and the ability to use practical and reflected knowledge in different contexts. Finally, new bases of scientific knowledge are suggested for use in the future education of practitioners.     

Women's Welfare and Social Security Privatization in Mexico

Several Latin American countries have fully or partially privatizedtheir public pensions since the 1980s. In 1995 Mexico privatizedits public pension system, including a shift from a definedbenefit to defined contribution system based on privately administeredindividual accounts. This article uses feminist criteria toevaluate the gender impact of welfare regimes and concludesthat the Mexican pension privatization will have a negativeeffect on women’s welfare in old age.     

Small-sample results for maximum-likelihood estimation in branching processes

In this article, small sample properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) for the offspring distribution (pk) and its mean m are considered in the context of the simple branching process. A representation theorem is given for the m.l.e. of (Pk) from which the m.l.e. of m is obtained. The case where p0 + p1 + p2 = 1 is studied in detail: numerical results are given for the exact bias of these estimators as a function of the age of the process; a curve fitting analysis expresses the bias of m? as a function of the mean and the variance of the offspring distribution and finally an “approximate m.l.e.” for (pk) is given.     

Consistent procedures for multiclass classification of discrete diffusion paths

The recent advent of modern technology has generated a large number of datasets which can be frequently modeled as functional data. This paper focuses on the problem of multiclass classification for stochastic diffusion paths. In this context we establish a closed formula for the optimal Bayes rule. We provide new statistical procedures which are built either on the plug-in principle or on the empirical risk minimization principle. We show the consistency of these procedures under mild conditions. We apply our methodologies to the parametric case and illustrate their accuracy with a simulation study through examples.     

Gender and Cultural Adaptation in Immigrant Families

The study of immigration and immigrants' experiences benefits from examining the contribution of gender. In this article, we focus on the importance of gender for understanding different aspects of family functioning. Conditions associated with immigration and settlement in the receiving society may challenge expectations about gender-related roles, resulting in the renegotiation of these roles in immigrant families. Also, there is evidence of different socialization demands on daughters compared to sons in immigrant families, a difference that has potential implications not only for parent-child relationships, but also for the development of ethnocultural identity among adolescents and young adults.     

Retrenchment, Expansion and the Transformation of Mexican Social Protection Policies

Social protection policies in Mexico have been transformed since 1988 through partial retrenchment of social insurance and significant expansion of targeted or means-tested social assistance. These changes reflect a substantial redefinition of social protection through incremental changes in policy. The changes reflect the abandonment of the goal of developing an employment-based, universal welfare regime, which had been pursued by Mexican governments as late as the 1970s. Instead, recent administrations have moved towards the redefinition of Mexico's welfare regime into a residual, means-tested model with significant private provision of benefits and services. This shift in social protection is consistent with the change in Mexico's overall economic development strategy and increasing political competition in the process of democratization.     

Voluntary Counselling Services in Melbourne: A Survey

The paper reports on a survey of aspects of counselling services provided by 83 voluntary organisations operating in the Melbourne metropolitan area. Information was obtained on the types of counselling services provided, clients making use of the services, and the selection and supervision of counsellors. The findings showed that the voluntary sector of organisations providing counselling services is both highly active and very heterogeneous.     

Research Methodology and Community Participation: A Decade of Indigenous Social Science Research in Canada

Those engaged in community‐based participatory research often comment on tensions between social scientific and community values, yet little systematic evidence exists about the relationship between social science research methodologies and community participation. We analyze nearly 500 peer‐reviewed articles published between 2005 and 2015 on Indigenous issues in Canada, where policies encourage participatory research methods with disempowered groups. We find that research that includes Indigenous participation is more likely to include Indigenous epistemologies and participatory evidence sources and analysis methods. We also find that peer‐reviewed research involving Indigenous participants often fails to go beyond minimum levels of consultation required by policies.