IDEOLOGY AND LEGISLATOR SHIRKING

We argue that legislator shirking (voting on the basis of personal ideology rather than the interests of one's constituents) can exist, but its appearance should conform to the law of demand. We test and confirm this theory using votes on defense expenditure bills in the U.S. Senate in 1982. We assume the cost of shirking is relatively higher on narrowly focused bills on specific weapons systems with well-defined beneficiaries, and relatively lower on general defense expenditure bills with uncertain final distribution of funds. We find greater influence for senators' ideology in general versus specific bills.     

Problems in sampling the Native American and Alaska Native populations

Selecting a scientific national sample of Native Americans and Alaska Natives is difficult for at least four reasons: (1) they are a small proportion of the total population, (2) they are not so segregated that geographic oversampling can reach most of the population, (3) criteria for deciding who is a member of the Native American and Alaska Native population are not well defined, and (4) they are so culturally diverse that subclass estimates may be of equal or greater importance than overall estimates. The goal of this paper is to identify key design choices a statistician must face when selecting a sample of these populations, and to discuss alternative strategies. I also provide commentary on sampling plans that have been used for previous surveys, and explain why these plans, while sufficient for the purposes of their particular surveys, do not provide general solutions. Of particular importance is a careful definition of the study population. For example, some studies would focus on the reservation population, others would focus on persons listed on tribal rolls, and still others on persons eligible for coverage by the Indian Health Service. The numbers of persons included in all of these groups is far short of the two million Native Americans and Alaska Natives counted in the 1990 Census. I conclude that there is no sampling strategy that is appropriate for all surveys, but also provide suggestions for certain survey situations.     

Response Results of Lottery Buyer Behavior Surveys: In-Home vs. Point-of-Purchase Interviews

This paper reports the response results of surveys on lotterypurchasing behavior. Data are based on answers generated fromtwo probability samples: a national, random sample of 1,646households (in-home survey) and a point-of-purchase sample of520 respondents. Results show that answers to the point-of-purchasesurvey were more accurate at half the cost of in-home interviews.The surveys were undertaken in Israel, but have implicationsfor those wishing to sample lottery purchasers in other countries.     

The Use of Polling in Congressional Campaigns

This study examines successful 1974 congressional campaignsthat used public opinion polling. The primary focus of the researchwas on where and how polling was used in the campaign and thefactors that influenced its use. Polling was most common inhighly competitive, well-financed races involving younger, lesspolitically experienced candidates. Surveys were typically begunquite early in the campaign and emphasized candidate standingand determined which issues were most salient to the electorate.The way polling was used was influenced primarily by party affiliation,the hiring of a professional polster and campaign expenditures