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1.
Two-treatment multi-center clinical trials are the most common type of clinical trials in practice. The aim of this paper is to discuss a curious property of certain standard nonparametric procedures used in the analysis of such clinical trials. Different analyses of a simulated data example are presented, which lead to contrasting and surprising results. The source of the potentially misleading outcome is then explored while relating the simulated data with the concept of Efron's paradox dice and the notion of nontransitivity. With the root of the problem established, an alternate nonparametric method from the literature is shown to address the problem. Finally, pointing out an interpretational concern of using the alternate procedure, a modification to this procedure is also suggested and corresponding theoretical results are presented. 相似文献
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Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance
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Sophie A. Rocks Iljana Schubert Emma Soane Edgar Black Rachel Muckle Judith Petts George Prpich Simon J. Pollard 《Risk analysis》2017,37(9):1683-1692
Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy‐level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others. 相似文献
4.
Edgar G. Karapetyan Anna A. Atoyan Marta E. Sandoyan Demeh Daradkah 《Transition Studies Review》2009,16(2):287-298
During the modern phase of economic reforms directed at the establishment of market economy, many countries with transition
economies face the challenge of solving the issue of formation and rational usage of internal sources of financing the real
sector of the economy, as well as attracting considerable volume of direct foreign investment. In general, financial market
imperfections hold back innovation and growth, and that public policy can complement financial markets. Therefore, the most
relevant issue at the present time is the formation of attendant and complex supervision institutions, as well as an exigency
of innovative economy governance as mainframe principles for further banking system elaboration and financial sector development
in general. We have taken Armenia as a case study for transition economy as far as Armenia is currently in the stage of capital
market development through integration into international financial markets.
相似文献
5.
Mark Steyvers Thomas S. Wallsten Edgar C. Merkle Brandon M. Turner 《Risk analysis》2014,34(3):435-452
We propose the use of signal detection theory (SDT) to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic forecasting systems and individual forecasters. The main advantage of SDT is that it provides a principled way to distinguish the response from system diagnosticity, which is defined as the ability to distinguish events that occur from those that do not. There are two challenges in applying SDT to probabilistic forecasts. First, the SDT model must handle judged probabilities rather than the conventional binary decisions. Second, the model must be able to operate in the presence of sparse data generated within the context of human forecasting systems. Our approach is to specify a model of how individual forecasts are generated from underlying representations and use Bayesian inference to estimate the underlying latent parameters. Given our estimate of the underlying representations, features of the classic SDT model, such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC), follow immediately. We show how our approach allows ROC curves and AUCs to be applied to individuals within a group of forecasters, estimated as a function of time, and extended to measure differences in forecastability across different domains. Among the advantages of this method is that it depends only on the ordinal properties of the probabilistic forecasts. We conclude with a brief discussion of how this approach might facilitate decision making. 相似文献
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This paper considers the difficulties associated with evaluating the expected value of additional information when the outcomes of various decision alternatives may be correlated. Such correlation is explained in terms of dependence of outcomes on common exogenous factors and it is argued that decisions regarding what, if any, additional information to collect should take such dependencies into account. A model-based ‘fixed-parameter’ approach to evaluating EVPI in such a context is developed and compared to the traditional ‘fixed-correlation’ approach. The results suggest that different assumptions about the issue of correlation can produce different, sometimes contradictory, conclusions about the expected value of additional information and bence, should be explicitly stated as part of any pre-posterior analysis. A hybrid model encompassing both approaches and rooted in the theory of psychology of inference is then proposed and illustrated. 相似文献
9.
Louis Edgar Esparza 《Sociological Forum》2015,30(3):860-864
Most of the world's nations have revised their constitutions to protect the human rights of their citizens. Yet there has been no national discussion in this country to write human rights into our own constitution. Building on Blau's (2015) call to action, this work explores ways in which sociologists can align the principles of our profession to the advancement of human society and the protection of human rights. 相似文献
10.
Edgar Forster 《?sterreichische Zeitschrift für Soziologie》2010,35(2):104-120
Reconstructing the transformation of manpower into human capital this article shows the effects on individual and collective political agency. In booming societies of the 1960s and early 1970s which were based on mass consumption, the utopia of a revolutionary proletarian subject vanished. It was superseded by the idea of a dualistic society providing a growing sphere of autonomy from economic dependancy. The neoliberal transformation of society destroyed this belief. If there is a strong convergence between labor and human capital, labor tends to interfuse the whole life. Complex governmental and economic regulation restricts democracy and effects individualization. The critical examination of processes of individualization shows the mechanisms that produce social antagonism. 相似文献