A time series model for cohort data

A univariate time-series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data for recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account, is illustrated using Dutch data on marital fertility rates.     

A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.     

The FARSEEING real-world fall repository: a large-scale collaborative database to collect and share sensor signals from real-world falls

Background

Real-world fall events objectively measured by body-worn sensors can improve the understanding of fall events in older people. However, these events are rare and hence challenging to capture. Therefore, the FARSEEING (FAll Repository for the design of Smart and sElf-adaptive Environments prolonging Independent livinG) consortium and associated partners started to build up a meta-database of real-world falls.

Results

Between January 2012 and December 2015 more than 300 real-world fall events have been recorded. This is currently the largest collection of real-world fall data recorded with inertial sensors. A signal processing and fall verification procedure has been developed and applied to the data. Since the end of 2015, 208 verified real-world fall events are available for analyses. The fall events have been recorded within several studies, with different methods, and in different populations. All sensor signals include at least accelerometer measurements and 58 % additionally include gyroscope and magnetometer measurements. The collection of data is ongoing and open to further partners contributing with fall signals. The FARSEEING consortium also aims to share the collected real-world falls data with other researchers on request.

Conclusions

The FARSEEING meta-database will help to improve the understanding of falls and enable new approaches in fall risk assessment, fall prevention, and fall detection in both aging and disease.

     

Family Intervention and Health Care Costs for Kansas Medicaid Patients with Schizophrenia

Despite a number of studies investigating the effect of pharmacotherapy on treatment costs for schizophrenia patients, there has been little attention given to the effect of family intervention. In this study, data from the Kansas Medicaid system were used to analyze healthcare costs for 164 schizophrenia patients who had participated in family intervention. Structural equation modeling was used to test two competing views of the role of family intervention in treatment. The results showed that a model including direct and indirect effects of family intervention provided a better fit to the data. Family intervention had a significant indirect effect on general medical costs (through other psychological treatment) that showed a savings of $586 for each unit increase in the provision of these services. In addition, the total indirect effects for family intervention showed a $580 savings for general medical costs and $796 for hospitalization costs (for each unit increase).     

A powerful test for uniformity to detect highly peaked alternativedensities

A new class of statistical tests for uniformity based on sample ranges is proposed to detect a uniform density contaminated by a density with one or more high peaks. These kinds of alternatives occur quite frequently, especially in physics. It is shown that the proposed tests arc consistent and have high Pitman asymptotic relative efficiencies. Results of a Monte Carlo power study indicate that they, compared with other tests of uniformity, possess good power properties.A comparative study of various tests is also conducted using real data. An effcient algorithm for computing out test statistic and a table of percentage points are given, providing a practical guide for using the new test.     

A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance

We propose a spatial-temporal stochastic model for daily average surface temperature data. First, we build a model for a single spatial location, independently on the spatial information. The model includes trend, seasonality, and mean reversion, together with a seasonally dependent variance of the residuals. The spatial dependency is modelled by a Gaussian random field. Empirical fitting to data collected in 16 measurement stations in Lithuania over more than 40 years shows that our model captures the seasonality in the autocorrelation of the squared residuals, a property of temperature data already observed by other authors. We demonstrate through examples that our spatial-temporal model is applicable for prediction and classification.     

Foreign Direct Investment in the Caribbean

This article addresses the question of whether the Caribbean is particularly attractive or unattractive to foreign investors, and if it has specific characteristics that attract or deter FDI. An econometric analysis of data from 135 countries for 1980‐2002 shows that the Caribbean does not suffer from low inflows of FDI; on the contrary, Caribbean countries receive more FDI than comparable countries in other regions. This reflects two contradictory effects. On the one hand, FDI inflows may be particularly sensitive to political instability in the region; on the other hand, the absence of regulation appears to have been a particularly beneficial factor in attracting FDI to the Caribbean.     

Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York

In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind contracts, wind generated power, etc. Furthermore, we discuss some striking resemblances with temperature dynamics.     

Sociology and the effects of affirmative action: A case of neglect

A literature review reveals that sociology has largely neglected to study the social effects of affirmative action, even though the policy’s assumptions and concepts are sociological. Non-sociological treatments of the policy’s consequences are examined and found wanting: polemics, legal commentaries, philosophical commentaries, economic analyses, psychological studies and organizational analyses. Sociological treatments—including opinion surveys and studies of overall societal effects—are examined and found to be mostly outdated and meager. Ten specific avenues of future research are described whereby our profession can fill this gap in our knowledge. where he has taught since 1969. He is editor of the forthcomingRelative Strangers: Studies of Stepfamily Processes (Littlefield-Adams).