Price bias and common practice in option pricing

Generally, the semiclosed-form option pricing formula for complex financial models depends on unobservable factors such as stochastic volatility and jump intensity. A popular practice is to use an estimate of these latent factors to compute the option price. However, in many situations this plug-and-play approximation does not yield the appropriate price. This article examines this bias and quantifies its impacts. We decompose the bias into terms that are related to the bias on the unobservable factors and to the precision of their point estimators. The approximated price is found to be highly biased when only the history of the stock price is used to recover the latent states. This bias is corrected when option prices are added to the sample used to recover the states' best estimate. We also show numerically that such a bias is propagated on calibrated parameters, leading to erroneous values. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 8–35; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

The Chinese-speaking Muslims (Dungans) of Central Asia: A Case of Multiple Identities in a Changing Context

Chinese-speaking Muslims, called Dungans in Central Asia and Huizu in China, were forced to migrate to present-day Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan at the end of the nineteenth century. They reconstructed their identity through interrelations with local populations and the soviet categorisation of nationality. But after 1991, their status has being gradually destabilised owing to the changes in economic, social and political rules as well as citizenship regulations in these countries. They have to readapt to the new situation created by the independence of the three former Soviet Republics, which has challenged their unity.     

Analyse biographique du travail féminin

Cet article montre comment l'application d'une méthode d'analyse biographique d'interaction à un domaine où l'interaction paraît évidente — activité féminine et fécondite — ouvre des perspectives nouvelles. En effet, les limites qui apparaissent lors de cette analyse conduisent les auteurs à conclure que ce n'est pas en raffinant les méthodes mais plutôt la collecte que l'on parviendra à progresser dans ce domaine. Le problème des interactions de l'activité et de la fécondité semble mal posé avant même le recours à la méthode. Cela justifie la nécessité de saisir le travail féminin comme concept unifié ne dissociant pas la sphère domestique et la sphère rémunérée. Cela conduit les auteurs à dégager quelques principes de collecte mieux adaptés aux préoccupations récentes dans ce domaine: des données biographiques sur le travail féminin. L'interaction collectée à sa source se prêterait alors à une analyse biographique plus révélatrice que celle qui confronte deux processus sans en évaluer les modalités changeantes.This article demonstrates how life event history analysis applied to the interaction between fertility and female economic activity can lead to new perspectives in the analysis of this complicated relationship. The authors identify limits to the analysis of the interaction given the anticipatory nature of behaviour. They conclude that progress in this field requires not the refinement of methods but rather a fundamental change in the approach to the data collected. If fertility and employment are considered separately, a problem is created even before the methods of analysis are applied. They recommend a conception of women's work as a whole, a conception that does not dissociate domestic and paid work. The authors go on to identify ways of improving the relevance of data collection to contemporary issues in the life history analysis of women's work. They argue that data on the interaction, collected at its source, would yield a more revealing life history than that which sees domestic work and paid work as separate spheres, and fails to take account of changes in their relationship.     

Approximations of rational criteria under complete ignorance and the independence axiom

Rational decision making under complete ignorance, a limit case of uncertainty, is defined. Through a concept of approximation, a meaning is given to a criterion almost possessing a property. Rational criteria depend almost on the sole bounds of the outcome range of each decision, they are almost continuous, they can almost possess a transitive indifference relation; however, under Savage's Independence Axiom, this last property restricts possible criteria to those which can be approximated, at least partly, by either the Maximin or the Maximax criterion.     

What Drives Citizen Participation in Political Gatherings in Modern South Africa? A Quantitative Analysis of Self-Reported Behaviour

Social Indicators Research - Community and public gatherings are an important component of political participation in sub-Saharan Africa. Formal and informal community meetings and rallies are...     

The Women’s Empowerment in Livestock Index

Social Indicators Research - The empowerment of women in the livestock sector is fundamental to achieve gender equality. It also is instrumental for increased household productivity and improved...     

Reshaping state/local communities relations in Tunisia: The socio-cultural and institutional challenges of the decentralization project

International development agencies believe that by adopting institutional reforms based on the best practices that have proved effective elsewhere, so-called « developing countries » could take their places in the globalised economy. Based on a case study carried out on the implementation challenges of a decentralization project in Tunisia, I will argue by using an interpretive approach that this thesis is not sustained. This article shows that institutions cannot be reduced to their technical functions but that they are based on particular collective imaginaries that ground what is legitimate or not and structure the relationship of individuals to power and the meaning given to their actions. It encourages the consideration of cultural framework of meaning; these local cultural references structure the governance modalities of a society, understood in terms of the modalities of exercise of power in a given group (state, company, local authority, etc.). It advocates the necessity to move from a technic-prone approach in the implementation of institutional changes towards a socio-cultural approach that integrates the local expectations of what “good governance” should be and on which depends the legitimacy of institutions and their appropriation by local populations.     

On smoothness of Tukey depth contours

The smoothness of Tukey depth contours is a regularity condition often encountered in asymptotic theory, among others. This condition ensures that the Tukey depth fully characterizes the underlying multivariate probability distribution. In this paper we demonstrate that this regularity condition is rarely satisfied. It is shown that even well-behaved probability distributions with symmetrical, smooth and (strictly) quasi-concave densities may have non-smooth Tukey depth contours, and that the smoothness behaviour of depth contours is fairly unpredictable.     

Self-Reported Personal Well-Being of Youth Accessing Intensive Mental Health Treatment

Normative samples have been shown to rate their personal wellbeing (PWB) as positively high and high PWB is associated with many enduring benefits. Cummins (J Happiness Stud 10(6):1–17, 2009) has suggested that PWB has an equilibrium that is set at a rather high positive state and maintained through psychological mechanisms he termed homeostatic protected mood (HPM). Investigators who have explored PWB and mental health disorders have often focused on schizophrenia in adult populations, with varied results, and scant attention has been paid to clinical samples of youth with emotional and/or behavioral disorders. The purpose for this report was to explore the level of PWB reported by a subsample of youth who accessed residential treatment (n = 30) and intensive home based treatment (n = 33) at 12–18 months post-discharge, and explore whether clinical variables could predict PWB. Many youth reported high PWB despite experiencing continued challenges in symptoms and psychosocial functioning. Demographic and clinical characteristics did not predict participants’ PWB scores, lending support for the HPM theory with this sample of youth with emotional and behavioral disorder.     

Are plant communities mainly determined by anthropogenic land cover along urban riparian corridors?

Often used as a mitigation tool to landscape fragmentation, urban riparian corridors also suffered from the effects of the urban expansion. This study explored the relationships between plant riparian communities and two major environmental variables (land cover, soil characteristics) and analyzed the floristic change along an urbanization gradient. Fifteen sites were surveyed on both riverbanks of two riparian corridors characterized by contrasting water regimes in Strasbourg, North Eastern France. Data of spontaneous species abundance was collected from 180 quadrats using (i) all plant species, (ii) herbaceous stratum and (iii) ligneous stratum (bush and tree). The diversity and compositional patterns of riparian plant species were analyzed within each corridor according to three levels of urbanization (urban, suburban, peri-urban). Relationships between riparian communities, land cover and soil chemical properties (pH, nitrogen and carbon content, moisture) were established by between-class co-inertia analyses. Land cover emerged as the main factor explaining changes in riparian communities along the rural–urban gradient while soil chemical properties discriminate water stress and fluvial dynamics of the two corridors. Similar compositional patterns were found within the most urbanized sites with the establishment of ubiquitous species. The herbaceous stratum is best linked to the level of urbanization, whereas the tree stratum is primarily correlated with corridor attributes (hydrological regime, soil properties). Although riparian species and communities are mainly determined by land cover, urban riparian corridors maintain native biodiversity up to the urban center.