加速东部沿海欠发达地区发展的有效路径研究

依据众多的经济发展理论分析沿海欠发达地区存在着五方面的问题:技术创新与制度创新能力弱,生产力发展水平低下;农业比重过大,产业缺陷较明显;地理位置偏僻,中心城市的经济辐射作用相当有限;经济发展落后,人口规模相对偏低;平均国民收入水平低,消费与投资均陷入不足的恶性循环.因此,应该改善当地的交通条件,促进制造业产业集群的形成,加快沿海欠发达地区城市化发展进程,扶持服务业,大力发展旅游业,以加速东部欠发达地区的发展.     

Bayesian unit-root tests for Stochastic Volatility models

In this article, we consider Bayesian inference procedures to test for a unit root in Stochastic Volatility (SV) models. Unit-root tests for the persistence parameter of the SV models, based on the Bayes Factor (BF), have been recently introduced in the literature. In contrast, we propose a flexible class of priors that is non-informative over the entire support of the persistence parameter (including the non-stationarity region). In addition, we show that our model fitting procedure is computationally efficient (using the software WinBUGS). Finally, we show that our proposed test procedures have good frequentist properties in terms of achieving high statistical power, while maintaining low total error rates. We illustrate the above features of our method by extensive simulation studies, followed by an application to a real data set on exchange rates.     

Lower posterior death probabilities from a quick medical response in road traffic accidents

Introduction: We use data from Spain on roads and motorways traffic accidents in May 2004 to quantify the statistical association between quick medical response time and mortality rate. Method: Probit and logit parameters are estimated by a Bayesian method in which samples from the posterior densities are obtained through an MCMC simulation scheme. We provide posterior credible intervals and posterior partial effects of a quick medical response at several time levels over which we express our prior beliefs. Results: A reduction of 5 min, from a 25-min response-time level, is associated with lower posterior probabilities of death in roads and motorways accidents of 24% and 30%, respectively.     

Heterogeneous data modeling with two-component Weibull–Poisson distribution

The mixture distribution models are more useful than pure distributions in modeling of heterogeneous data sets. The aim of this paper is to propose mixture of Weibull–Poisson (WP) distributions to model heterogeneous data sets for the first time. So, a powerful alternative mixture distribution is created for modeling of the heterogeneous data sets. In the study, many features of the proposed mixture of WP distributions are examined. Also, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is used to determine the maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters, and the simulation study is conducted for evaluating the performance of the proposed EM scheme. Applications for two real heterogeneous data sets are given to show the flexibility and potentiality of the new mixture distribution.     

Strong consistency of least squares estimates with i.i.d. errors with mean values not necessarily defined

We establish strong consistency of the least squares estimates in multiple regression models discarding the usual assumption of the errors having null mean value. Thus, we required them to be i.i.d. with absolute moment of order r, 0<r<2, and null mean value when r>1. Only moderately restrictive conditions are imposed on the model matrix. In our treatment, we use an extension of the Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund strong law to overcome the errors mean value not being defined. In this way, we get a unified treatment for the case of i.i.d. errors extending the results of some previous papers.     

Random translation of discrete order statistics

We investigate the existence and uniqueness of a discrete parent distribution supported on the integers whose order statistics are related by a random translation. We also provide some examples using the constructive method that we propose.     

On sufficient conditions for the strong consistency of least-squares estimates

The strong consistency of the least-squares estimates in regression models is obtained when the errors are i.i.d. with absolute moment of order r, 0<r? 2. The assumptions presented for the random error sequence will permit us to obtain improvements of the conditions on the regressors in order to obtain the strong consistency of the least-squares estimates in linear and nonlinear regression models.     

Comparison of ANOVA-F and ANOM tests with regard to type I error rate and test power

A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to compare the type I error rate and test power of the analysis of means (ANOM) test to the one-way analysis of variance F-test (ANOVA-F). Simulation results showed that as long as the homogeneity of the variance assumption was satisfied, regardless of the shape of the distribution, number of group and the combination of observations, both ANOVA-F and ANOM test have displayed similar type I error rates. However, both tests have been negatively affected from the heterogeneity of the variances. This case became more obvious when the variance ratios increased. The test power values of both tests changed with respect to the effect size (Δ), variance ratio and sample size combinations. As long as the variances are homogeneous, ANOVA-F and ANOM test have similar powers except unbalanced cases. Under unbalanced conditions, the ANOVA-F was observed to be powerful than the ANOM-test. On the other hand, an increase in total number of observations caused the power values of ANOVA-F and ANOM test approach to each other. The relations between effect size (Δ) and the variance ratios affected the test power, especially when the sample sizes are not equal. As ANOVA-F has become to be superior in some of the experimental conditions being considered, ANOM is superior in the others. However, generally, when the populations with large mean have larger variances as well, ANOM test has been seen to be superior. On the other hand, when the populations with large mean have small variances, generally, ANOVA-F has observed to be superior. The situation became clearer when the number of the groups is 4 or 5.