MAIL SURVEYS FOR ELECTION FORECASTING?: AN EVALUATION OF THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH POLL

Because of slow turnaround time and typically low response rates,mail surveys have generally been considered of little valuein election forecasting. However, statewide mail surveys conductedby the Columbus Dispatch newspaper since 1980 have made remarkablyaccurate forecasts of Ohio election outcomes. In comparisonto statewide surveys by two other organizations employing conventionaltelephone interview methods, the mail surveys were consistentlymore accurate and were generally less susceptible to sourcesof inaccuracy such as high rolloff and low publicity. The mailsurvey's advantage is attributable at least in part to largersample sizes, sampling and response procedures that yieldedmore representative samples of voters, lack of the need to allocateundecided respondents, and superior questionnaire design. Thesefindings suggest that mail surveys not only may be viable alternativesto telephone surveys but may actually be superior to them undersome conditions. Further-more, these results demonstrate thatsurveys with low response rates are not necessarily low in validity.     

THE IMPACT OF INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING ON PUBLIC OPINION AND POLICYMAKING TARGETING TOXIC WASTE

This article reports the fourth in a continuing series of casestudies that explore the impact of news media investigativejournalism on the general public, policymakers, and public policy.The media disclosures in this field experiment had limited effectson the general public but were influential in changing the attitudesof policymakers. The study describes how changes in public policymakingresulted from collaboration between journalists and governmentofficials. The authors develop a model that is a beginning steptoward specifying the cond6itions under which media investigationsinfluence public attitudes and agendas.     

Invoking Public Opinion: Policy Elites and Social Security

Do policy elites invoke public opinion? When they do, are theirclaims based on evidence from public opinion surveys? To learnabout the claims that policy elites make, we examined statementsthe president and members of Congress, experts, and interestgroup leaders in congressional hearings made about Social Security.To learn about opinion data on Social Security, we conducteda Lexis-Nexis search of the archives of the Roper Center forPublic Opinion Research. Our analyses show that policy elitesdiscussing Social Security did invoke public opinion. Contraryto our expectations, however, few of the elite invocations ofpublic opinion cited specific surveys or concrete facts aboutthe distribution of opinion. Although claims directly contradictingsurvey evidence were relatively rare, only with the rather fewspecific claims by congressional elites did we find much clear-cutsupport in the available polling data. Relatively seldom couldwe find clear-cut support for the elites' general claims. Moreover,some of the most frequent claims about public opinion—couldhave been contested but seldom were. The highly visible andwell-polled case of Social Security suggests that specific,data-based elite invocations of public opinion may be even lesscommon on other, lower-visibility and less-polled issues. Italso suggests that survey research professionals might do wellto intensify their scrutiny of public discourse about publicopinion and to increase their efforts to bring scientific expertiseto bear upon such discourse.     

Indicators of Consumer Behavior: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

Data gathered by the Surveys of Consumers over the past severaldecades show that changes in consumer attitudes and expectationsoccur in advance of action. Current data can be measured andused to predict aggregate trends in consumer expenditures forhouses, cars, and large household durables, as well as the incurrenceof debt and acquisition of financial assets.