Objective Testing Procedures in Linear Models: Calibration of the p-values

Abstract.  An optimal Bayesian decision procedure for testing hypothesis in normal linear models based on intrinsic model posterior probabilities is considered. It is proven that these posterior probabilities are simple functions of the classical F -statistic, thus the evaluation of the procedure can be carried out analytically through the frequentist analysis of the posterior probability of the null. An asymptotic analysis proves that, under mild conditions on the design matrix, the procedure is consistent. For any testing hypothesis it is also seen that there is a one-to-one mapping – which we call calibration curve – between the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the classical bi p -value. This curve adds substantial knowledge about the possible discrepancies between the Bayesian and the p -value measures of evidence for testing hypothesis. It permits a better understanding of the serious difficulties that are encountered in linear models for interpreting the p -values. A specific illustration of the variable selection problem is given.     

ZONING UNDER SPATIAL PRICE DISCRIMINATION

This paper investigates zoning in a duopoly model of spatial price discrimination. We find that the zone in which the firms are not allowed to locate depends on the bias of the regulator. A bias toward firms is deduced when locations around the central area are forbidden, and a bias toward consumers exists when firms are only allowed to locate at places around the central area. The design of the zoned area guarantees that firms locate optimally and works under simultaneous or sequential choice of locations by the two firms. (JEL L13, R38)     

THE DURATION OF FIRM‐DESTINATION EXPORT RELATIONSHIPS: EVIDENCE FROM SPAIN, 1997–2006

This article uses survival analysis to investigate the duration of Spanish firms' trade relationships by destination over 1997–2006. Whereas firm export status is highly persistent, firms' destination portfolio is very dynamic: a typical firm‐country exporting relationship has a median duration of 2 years. Yet, if a firm manages to export to a country beyond 2 years the risk of exiting that market sharply falls afterwards. The results indicate that not only firm heterogeneity but also destination heterogeneity are crucial to explain survival in export markets. In particular, country (political) risk heavily shapes the effect of firm, product, and other destination characteristics on the length of trade relationships. Whereas firm productivity, comparative advantage, partners' GDP, and proximity enhance duration of trade with low‐risk countries, they have no effect on trade survival with high‐risk countries. On the contrary, information spillovers are particularly relevant to enhance survival of trade relationships with high‐risk countries. (JEL C41, F10, F14)     

An Age-Structured Model for Childhood Obesity

An age-structured model for childhood obesity at population level is fitted to empirical data in order to predict the proportion of overweighted and obese children in the 6–8 and 9–12 year old classes in the region of Valencia, Spain.     

Model‐Based Non‐parametric Variance Estimation for Systematic Sampling

Abstract. Systematic sampling is frequently used in surveys, because of its ease of implementation and its design efficiency. An important drawback of systematic sampling, however, is that no direct estimator of the design variance is available. We describe a new estimator of the model‐based expectation of the design variance, under a non‐parametric model for the population. The non‐parametric model is sufficiently flexible that it can be expected to hold at least approximately in many situations with continuous auxiliary variables observed at the population level. We prove the model consistency of the estimator for both the anticipated variance and the design variance under a non‐parametric model with a univariate covariate. The broad applicability of the approach is demonstrated on a dataset from a forestry survey.     

Transnational mobility and rootedness: the upper middle classes in European cities

Some authors argue that ‘mobilities’ form the distinctive feature of late modern societies and represent a new social cleavage between cosmopolitan mobile élites and urban residents more rooted in their local neighbourhoods. One assumption in contemporary discourses of rootedness is that this new transnational or global society entails an ongoing process of uprooting individuals and a mainly mobile élite packing up and relocating. In this article, we draw on empirical comparative research to examine the patterns and dynamics of mobility and belonging across European borders among upper‐middle‐class managers in four cities – Paris, Madrid, Milan and Lyon. We suggest that these new urban upper‐middle‐class managers display flight responses, or ‘partial exit’ strategies, which operate at various levels to enable them to protect and control their interests while holding onto the reins of power in their local communities. Our study adopts a micro‐level perspective to explore individual experiences, strategies, motivations and values based on interviews with 480 managers in these cities.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST ON RETIREMENT DECISIONS

As part of the current debate on the reform of pension systems, this paper presents an original experimental test where subjects face three different payoff sequences with identical expected value. Two central questions are analyzed. First, whether the distribution of retirement benefits across time influences the retirement decision. And second, whether actuarially fair pension systems distort the retirement decision. The results indicate both that a lump-sum payment rather than annuity benefits is far more effective in delaying the retirement decision and that recent reforms that encourage the link between lifetime contributions and pension benefits to delay the retirement decision should take into account timing considerations. ( JEL C91, H55, J26)     

THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION IN A DISTORTED TWO-SECTOR ECONOMY

This paper examines the income, employment and distributional impact of immigration on a recipient economy facing an administered wage distortion. It is found that immigration increases the unemployment rate of the native population and shifts income distribution against labor and in favor of the nonlabor input. Its effect on the total income of the non-immigrants is, however, ambiguous, and depends on the relative importance of the increase in unemployment versus the net increase in the rent received by the owners of the non-labor input.