THE GROWTH OF THE FEDERAL DEFICIT AND THE ROLE OF PUBLIC ATTITUDES

How can the recent explosion in the fiscal deficit of the UnitedStates be reconciled with the well-known support of the Americanpublic for fiscal conservatism? It is first shown that the reputationfor fiscal conservatism is fully supported by public opinionpolls dating back over a period of four decades. Solid majoritieshave consistently opposed tax reductions that might producean unbalanced budget. Recently, however, the public has alsoshown strong opposition to increases in taxes to close the fiscalgap, which might appear to imply a new acquiescence to the deficit.But this opposition, too, is shown to have persisted for a longtime and to be not logically inconsistent with rejecting taxcuts resulting in deficit. Another fashionable explanation forthe deficit holds that the budget process in a democratic societyis biased toward deficit because the cost of higher taxes isimmediate while the cost of deficit is delayed. But it is inconsistentwith the fiscal history of the United States over the last 100years, which reveals no systematic bias toward deficits, atleast until recent years. The major explanation that emergesis that the administration succeeded in misleading the public(and perhaps even itself) into believing that the tax cut wouldnot result in deficit thanks to "supply" and "Laffer curve"effects.