A Theory of Macroprudential Policies in the Presence of Nominal Rigidities

We propose a theory of monetary policy and macroprudential interventions in financial markets. We focus on economies with nominal rigidities in goods and labor markets and subject to constraints on monetary policy, such as the zero lower bound or fixed exchange rates. We identify an aggregate demand externality that can be corrected by macroprudential interventions in financial markets. Ex post, the distribution of wealth across agents affects aggregate demand and output. Ex ante, however, these effects are not internalized in private financial decisions. We provide a simple formula for the required financial interventions that depends on a small number of measurable sufficient statistics. We also characterize optimal monetary policy. We extend our framework to incorporate pecuniary externalities, providing a unified approach to both externalities. Finally, we provide a number of applications which illustrate the relevance of our theory.     

International Adaptation of a Treatment Program for Situational Couple Violence

Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a serious international problem. Stith, S. M., McCollum, E. E., and Rosen, K. H. received funding from the US National Institute of Mental Health to develop and test a program for couples experiencing IPV: Domestic Violence Focused Couples Treatment (DVFCT). This article provides an overview of DVFCT, and presents three case studies illustrating how DVFCT has been adapted for use in Colombia, Iran, and Finland. This article emphasizes the need for adapting treatment models to be culturally informed, provides practice-based evidence for DVFCT as a treatment model, and highlights the importance of careful screening and assessment when working with couples who have experienced violence, no matter the country or location where treatment is being conducted.     

Engage In or Refrain From? A Qualitative Exploration of Premarital Sexual Relations Among Female College Students in Tehran

This study explored the factors that educated young Iranian women consider when they decide whether to have premarital sex. Using a purposive sampling method, 30 in-depth interviews were conducted with female college students in both government and private universities in Tehran in 2005–2006. The respondents included unmarried women who had experienced sexual relations, unmarried women who had abstained, and married women. Young women’s considerations for premarital sex included (1) marriage meaning and motivations; (2) compliance with family values and expectations; (3) perceived gender and social norms of premarital sex; (4) importance of religiosity; and (5) sexual knowledge and self-efficacy. Marriage meaning and motivation seem to be the central pillar in the complex decision to engage in or refrain from premarital sex among female college students. These considerations have theoretical implications for understanding premarital relationships and sex in a conservative setting. Finally, some shifts are occurring in the meaning of marriage and sexual mores among educated young women in Iran; these changes are discussed.     

Sexual and Reproductive Health Knowledge Among Men and Women Aged 15 to 49 Years in Metropolitan Tehran

Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) knowledge is an important predictor of an individual’s sexual behavior; however, little is known regarding this issue among Iranians. This study assessed sexual and reproductive health knowledge among men and women aged 15 to 49 years in Tehran. A total of 755 men and women aged 15 to 49 years were recruited using multistage, random cluster sampling in June 2014. An illustrative anonymous questionnaire endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO) was used to collect the data. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. The results showed that men and women were moderately knowledgeable about sexual and reproductive health (mean score of SRH knowledge = 39, range: 26 to 52); however, myths and misperceptions prevailed in different aspects of SRH. For example, only 45% of women and 38.7% of men accurately knew that a person infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can look healthy. Friends were identified as the primary or secondary source of knowledge about puberty and sex-related issues. A multivariate analysis showed that being female (coefficient = 0.139, p < 0.001) and being married (coefficient = 0.180, p < 0.001) were significant predictors of better SRH knowledge, while being young (age group 15 to 24) was a significant determinant of poor SRH knowledge (coefficient = ?0.161, p < 0.001) when other influencing factors were controlled. Culturally appropriate and age-specific comprehensive education is recommended, particularly for men, the unmarried, and the younger generation in Iran.     

Globalization and changing gender norms in Azerbaijan

In the Republic of Azerbaijan, the opening up of borders and the transition to a free market economy have paved the way not only for economic transformations but also for cultural intrusion from the West and the South. This has coincided with the intensification of globalizing processes across the world over the past two decades. This article examines the impact of the ensuing changes on gender norms and the position of women in public and domestic spheres in Azerbaijan. Pointing to the paradoxical gender ideology under the Soviet system and the way that it has evolved in recent years, the article examines the impact of conflicting ideologies and exogenous influences, such as the advent of the commercialization of sex, on women's economic position and public presence. It finds that, although some of the old ambiguities in gender norms and relations are being eroded, new gender asymmetries are arising along with contradictions and new tensions in gender and family relations. The diversification of perceptions of femininity and gender norms is shown to have occurred in tandem with the intensification of regional disparities, in particular the metropolitan-periphery divide, which has resulted from globalizing processes.     

Tehran's Delayed Spring?

This article examines the Islamic Republic of Iran's conflicted posture towards the unprecedented popular movements to bring about change of leadership in the Middle East as it attempts to reap the geopolitical benefits of political upheavals in the region while at the same time holding at bay intense domestic conflicts both at the elite and societal levels. Laying out the particularities of Iran's post-revolutionary dynamics, a case is made that the yearning for political reform should be placed within the broader context of socioeconomic changes and the reality that the revolution has given birth to ideologically differentiated middle classes that are contending for power and have yet to find their way towards political accommodation.

Este artículo examina la postura conflictiva de la república islámica de Irán hacia los movimientos populares sin precedente, para ocasionar un cambio de liderazgo en el Medio Oriente, en un intento de cosechar los beneficios geopolíticos de un levantamiento político en la región, mientras que a un mismo tiempo se mantienen a raya los conflictos domésticos, tanto en la élite como en los niveles de la sociedad. Estableciendo las particularidades de la dinámica posrevolucionarias de Irán, se puede aducir que el anhelo por una reforma política debería situarse en un contexto más amplio de cambios socioeconómicos, y que la realidad de la revolución ha engendrado clases medias diferenciadas ideológicamente que están luchando por el poder y todavía tienen que hallar la forma de un acuerdo político.

本文检视了伊朗伊斯兰共和国对于给中东地区领导权带来改变的空前大众运动的矛盾姿态。在努力使精英和社会层次上的强烈国内冲突无法接近自身的同时,它又试图收获该地区政治动乱的地缘政治好处。在揭开伊朗后革命动力的特殊性时,本文提出了一个观点：对政治改革的渴盼应被置于更为广阔的语境内,即社会经济变革以及如下现实,即革命已经产生了具有不同意识形态的中产阶级,他们正在夺取权力,但还有待找到走向政治调适之路。     

Combining Bayesian method and Kalman smoother for detection additive outlier patches in autoregressive time series

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a development of detecting patches of additive outliers in autoregressive time series models. The procedure improves the existing detection methods via Gibbs sampling. We combine the Bayesian method and the Kalman smoother to present some candidate models of outlier patches and the best model with the minimum Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is selected among them. We propose that this combined Bayesian and Kalman method (CBK) can reduce the masking and swamping effects about detecting patches of additive outliers. The correctness of the method is illustrated by simulated data and then by analyzing a real set of observations.     

德黑兰中期交通和运输研究

德黑兰综合交通运输研究开始开１９９４年，研究中收集了社会经济数据，网络特性和公交数据，完成了出行调查和交通容量的计算，出行产业，出行分布和方式选择都准确地采用了这些数据，在这些研究中，考虑到德黑兰市的规模和它相应的数据库以及具体的目的，选用ＥＭＭＥ／２作为软件工具进行需求预测和交通分配较为适合。德黑兰市交通模型则上经历了两个阶段；ａ目前状况的形成；ｂ通过确定和评价可选方案实现交通系统的优化和未来预