An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.     

Total testosterone levels are correlated to metabolic syndrome components

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a constellation of interrelated risk factors of metabolic origin. Some studies suggest a possible link between low total testosterone (TT) levels and the presence of MetS.

Aim: To analyze the strength and independence of associations between TT and MetS components in non-diabetic men.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 143 non-diabetic men older than 40 were analyzed.

Main outcomes measure: Blood samples were collected to evaluate metabolic profile and TT levels. MetS was defined as the presence of three or more of the following characteristics: fasting blood glucose levels?≥?100?mg/dL, triglyceride?≥?150?mg/dL, HDL-c??102?cm.

Results: Mean age of the study population was 61.5?±?8.61 years old. MetS was present in 47.9% of the individuals. Thirty-four men had low TT and MetS was observed in 23 (70%) against 50 (46%) in those with normal TT (≥?300?ng/dL) (OR 4.94, p?p?=?0.03) and HDL-c (Beta: 0.19; p?=?0.04) remained significantly correlated with TT levels.

Conclusions: Low TT levels were associated with MetS diagnosis. Abdominal obesity was the MetS component independently correlated to low TT levels.     

From non-cultural to intercultural principles: a proposal for English classes in Brazilian public schools

This article focuses on English language teaching in Brazilian public schools, based on experiences in primary and secondary education, as well as in Teaching Practicum courses at a university. Through these experiences, the article critiques the overemphasis on grammar and the lack of an intercultural approach. The author engages the reader with a theoretical discussion regarding the connection between language and culture and the possibilities for the implementation of intercultural principles. The article closes with some reflections on what intercultural language learning looks like in practice.     

Ports modernization and its influence on trade unions

The restructuring of production resulting from the Port Modernization Law (Law 8.630/90) caused significant changes in work organization of Brazilian Ports. In the case of Mucuripe (Fortaleza, Ceará), in particular, the changes were very intense as Mucuripe is an old port that, before the Law, had labor regulation being governed by Trade Unions. This paper aims to present the perceptions of Union Representatives on the changes brought about by the Law on work organization in the port of Fortaleza, its influence in the organization and in the way the Unions deal with this new reality. Open and exploratory interviews were conducted with representatives of occasional labor workers registered in the Port of Fortaleza OGMO (Org?o Gestor de M?o de Obra, Labor Regulation Management). The analysis of the collected material in the interviews was based on the technique of content analysis proposed by Bardin (1979). Trade Unions have undergone a great loss of power and it has reflected in a relative inability to perform its function and to fight for the rights of the workers. The obvious Trade Unions weakness - a reduction of strikes and less unionized workers - reflects the dominating ideology of capital.     

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model. The authors would like to thank the editor and referees for their helpful comments. This work was supported by CNPq, Brazil.     

DOES TELEVISION ENTRY DECREASE THE NUMBER OF MOVIE THEATERS?

This paper empirically examines the impact of competition in the television (TV) industry on the number of movie theaters, their attendance, and their box office revenues. Studies of firm entry usually focus on the impact of regulation on economic outcomes within an industry, thereby neglecting its impact on neighboring industries. Using changes in regulation in the Spanish local TV station industry, we estimate the impact of TV entry on the movie theater industry between 1993 and 2005. Our findings show that local TV entry decreased the number of theaters and screens in a province, as well as movie attendance and box office revenues. (JEL L11, L43, L82)     

The bivariate alpha-skew-normal distribution

In this paper, we propose a new bivariate distribution, namely bivariate alpha-skew-normal distribution. The proposed distribution is very flexible and capable of generalizing the univariate alpha-skew-normal distribution as its marginal component distributions; it features a probability density function with up to two modes and has the bivariate normal distribution as a special case. The joint moment generating function as well as the main moments are provided. Inference is based on a usual maximum-likelihood estimation approach. The asymptotic properties of the maximum-likelihood estimates are verified in light of a simulation study. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated in a real benchmark data.     

Between reform and inertia: Bolivia's employment and social protection policies over the past 20 years

With the coming to power in 2006 of Evo Morales' Movement Toward Socialism, Bolivia entered a new stage in its history: a period of ambitious political and economic reform aiming to transcend the neo‐liberal development model in place since 1985 and to renew the State on the basis of its new Constitution, drawn up in 2008. Against this background, this article examines changes in labour law and social protection during the 1980s and 1990s and takes stock of the challenges of implementing a development strategy focusing on full employment and equity.