A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

Sense of Belonging in School as a Protective Factor Against Drug Abuse Among Native American Urban Adolescents

This article presents the results of a study conducted with 243 Native American students who were part of a multi-ethnic sample of adolescents attending middle school in a large urban center in the Southwest region of the United States. Native adolescents who felt a stronger sense of belonging in their school were found to report a lower lifetime use of alcohol and cigarettes, lower cigarette and marijuana use in the previous month, lower frequency of current use of these substances, fewer substances ever used, and a later age of initiation into drug use than other Native students. Research implications are discussed in relationship to school environment, culturally-grounded prevention curricula, and school social work practice.     

Stream salamander responses to varying degrees of urbanization within Maryland’s piedmont physiographic province

The main objective of this study was to determine how stream salamander assemblages and species respond to varying levels of impervious surface cover within Maryland’s Piedmont physiographic province. We sampled stream salamanders in 21 first-order streams located in watersheds representing a range of impervious surface cover (0–24 %) across the northeastern part of Maryland’s Piedmont region. Habitat data, including stream substrate and riparian characteristics, were measured at each site. Eurycea bislineata was the predominant species of stream salamander encountered during this study (> 99 % of individuals) and most of these individuals were larvae (> 92 %). Consequently, statistical analysis was limited to E. bislineata larvae. We were unable to detect a difference in E. bislineata abundances or body mass index’s among varying levels of impervious surface cover % or any individual site habitat variables alone. These results suggest that in smaller watersheds within the Piedmont of Maryland, local habitat variables, in conjunction with land use variables, are necessary in determining the abundance and body mass index of E. bislineata larvae populations. This study makes a strong case for halting the over-simplification of the relationship between urbanization and the presence/abundance of stream salamanders.

     

Differences by gender, ethnicity, and acculturation in the efficacy of the keepin' it REAL model prevention program

This study examined whether the efficacy of keepin' it REAL, a model program for substance use prevention in schools, was moderated by gender, ethnicity, and acculturation. Gender differences in program efficacy may arise through boys' higher risk of drug use, inadequate attention to girls' developmental issues, or cultural factors like polarized gender expectations. Data came from a randomized trial in 35 Phoenix, Arizona, middle schools involving 4,622 mostly Latino 7th graders. Using multi-level mixed models and multiple imputation missing techniques, results for the total sample showed no gender differences in program effects on recent substance use, but the program was more effective in fostering boys' than girls' anti-drug norms. Subgroup analyses demonstrated several more beneficial program effects for boys than girls (less alcohol and cigarette use and stronger anti-drug norms), but only among less acculturated Latinos. There were no gender differences in program effects among more acculturated Latinos, nor among non-Latino whites.     

A Poset-Generalizability Method for Human Development Indicators

Social Indicators Research - The paper introduces a poset-generalizability perspective for analysing human development indicators. It suggests a new method for identifying admissibility of...     

Identifying social innovations in European local rural development initiatives

Social innovation is attracting increasing attention in research and policy, heightened by continuing austerity across Europe. Therefore, this paper examines earlier research into community-led local development (CLLD) initiatives in rural areas of Europe to develop our understanding of the meaning and scope of rural social innovation. We draw on a Schumpeterian view where innovations emerge from new combinations of resources that bring about positive changes and create value in society. A Schumpeterian social innovation framework is derived as the basis for re-analysing data from previous evaluations of LEADER policy in five different national contexts. This elicits a clearer understanding of social innovation in a rural development context, identifying different processes and outcomes that create social value. As the CLLD agenda and the demand for innovation in Europe gather pace, our aspirations are to inform future research and other initiatives on how to integrate social innovation into the design and evaluation of new rural development policies and programmes.     

Evaluating school and parent reports of the national student achievement testing system (SIMCE) in Chile: Access,comprehension, and use

This evaluation examined school and parent reports of the national student achievement testing system (SIMCE) in Chile regarding three dimensions: access, comprehension, and use. We conducted phone surveys with a representative sample of directors (N = 375), teachers (N = 1145) and parents (N = 625), and we collected more in-depth data through interviews and focus groups in 16 of these schools. The results indicate that access to the reports is not an obstacle to use for school actors, but it is for parents. While summative ratings of the reports in terms of their clarity and utility were generally very positive, the actual recall and interpretation of even basic information (assessed through case scenarios) was incorrect for a majority of teachers and parents, and reported uses of the information were both intended and unintended in nature. We also found some statistically significant differences regarding comprehension and use among subgroups of our sample. Our findings are especially relevant given the expectations attached to the use of the reports for school improvement on the one hand, and parents’ behavior as critical consumers of education on the other hand.     

Posture Development in Infants at Heightened versus Low Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders

Evidence suggests that children and adults diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) exhibit difficulties with postural control. Retrospective video studies of infants later diagnosed with ASD indicate that infants who eventually receive an ASD diagnosis exhibit delays in postural development. This study investigates early posture development prospectively and longitudinally in 22 infants at heightened biological risk for ASD (HR) and 18 infants with no such risk (Low Risk; LR). Four HR infants received an autism diagnosis (AD infants) at 36 months. Infants were videotaped at home at 6, 9, 12, and 14 months during everyday activities and play. All infant postures were coded and classified as to whether or not they were infant‐initiated. Relative to LR infants, HR infants were slower to develop skill in sitting and standing postures. AD infants exhibited substantial delays in the emergence of more advanced postures and initiated fewer posture changes. Because posture advances create opportunities for infants to interact with objects and people in new and progressively more sophisticated ways, postural delays may have cascading effects on opportunities for infant exploration and learning. These effects may be greater for infants with ASD, for whom posture delays are more significant.     

The effects of physical activity and sedentary behavior on cognitive health in older adults

Physical activity has been shown to be positively associated with cognitive health, but the mechanisms underlying the benefits of physical activity on cognitive health are unclear. The present study simultaneously examined two hypotheses using structural equation modeling (SEM). The depression-reduction hypothesis states that depression suppresses cognitive ability and that physical activity alleviates dysphoric mood and thereby improves cognitive ability. The social-stimulation hypothesis posits that social contact, which is often facilitated by socially laden physical activities, improves cognitive functioning by stimulating the nervous system. Sedentary behavior in the absence of physical activity is expected to exert an inverse relationship on cognitive health through each of these hypotheses. Community-dwelling elders (N = 158) were administered a variety of measures of cognition, depression, social support, and physical activity. SEM techniques provided partial support for the social-stimulation hypothesis and depression-reduction hypothesis. Implications for treating depression and improving cognitive functioning are discussed.     

Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation

This paper formulates and estimates multistage production functions for children's cognitive and noncognitive skills. Skills are determined by parental environments and investments at different stages of childhood. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between investments in one period and stocks of skills in that period to assess the benefits of early investment in children compared to later remediation. We establish nonparametric identification of a general class of production technologies based on nonlinear factor models with endogenous inputs. A by‐product of our approach is a framework for evaluating childhood and schooling interventions that does not rely on arbitrarily scaled test scores as outputs and recognizes the differential effects of the same bundle of skills in different tasks. Using the estimated technology, we determine optimal targeting of interventions to children with different parental and personal birth endowments. Substitutability decreases in later stages of the life cycle in the production of cognitive skills. It is roughly constant across stages of the life cycle in the production of noncognitive skills. This finding has important implications for the design of policies that target the disadvantaged. For most configurations of disadvantage it is optimal to invest relatively more in the early stages of childhood than in later stages.