Bayesian predictive densities based on latent information priors

Construction methods for prior densities are investigated from a predictive viewpoint. Predictive densities for future observables are constructed by using observed data. The simultaneous distribution of future observables and observed data is assumed to belong to a parametric submodel of a multinomial model. Future observables and data are possibly dependent. The discrepancy of a predictive density to the true conditional density of future observables given observed data is evaluated by the Kullback-Leibler divergence. It is proved that limits of Bayesian predictive densities form an essentially complete class. Latent information priors are defined as priors maximizing the conditional mutual information between the parameter and the future observables given the observed data. Minimax predictive densities are constructed as limits of Bayesian predictive densities based on prior sequences converging to the latent information priors.     

Patterns of prey utilization in a web of orb-weaving spiderAraneus pinguis (Karsch)

Summary The pattern of prey utilization of the orb-weaving spiderAraneus pinguis was studies by comparing between arthropods restrained in the empty webs (spiders were removed) and those unattacked in the intact webs (spiders were not removed). The number of arthropods was larger in the empty webs than in the intact webs. In the empty webs, web area, mesh width, number of radii, and signal thread length were presumed to affect the number of arthropods left in a single web. As for the intact webs, web area, mesh width, and web-exposure time were important factors. In the empty webs, the density of arthropods decreased away from the hub. On the other hand, the density of unattacked arthropods in the intact webs was the same throughout the web. Arthropods in the empty webs were larger than those in the intact webs. The upper limit in size of unattacked arthropods increased along with the distance from the hub in the intact webs, but not in the empty webs. These results indicate increase in the minimum size of eaten arthropods increased in the former. This positive sizedistance relation may have resulted from the adaptive switching of spiders’ alternative foraging methods (i.e., the rapid attack at encounter and the later eating during web deconstruction) on the basis of the prey profitability.     

On Parametric Bootstrapping and Bayesian Prediction

Abstract.  We investigate bootstrapping and Bayesian methods for prediction. The observations and the variable being predicted are distributed according to different distributions. Many important problems can be formulated in this setting. This type of prediction problem appears when we deal with a Poisson process. Regression problems can also be formulated in this setting. First, we show that bootstrap predictive distributions are equivalent to Bayesian predictive distributions in the second-order expansion when some conditions are satisfied. Next, the performance of predictive distributions is compared with that of a plug-in distribution with an estimator. The accuracy of prediction is evaluated by using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Finally, we give some examples.     

Comorbidities as predictors of incidental prostate cancer after Holmium laser enucleation of the prostate: diabetes and high-risk cancer

Prostate cancer can be diagnosed as an incidental finding during the pathological examination of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) specimens by Holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP). BPH and comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia often coexist in elderly people. We identified which comorbidities can be used to predict the presence of incidental prostate cancer, particularly high-risk cancer, in men who had undergone HoLEP. On the basis of pathological findings of HoLEP specimens, patients with incidental cancer were categorized as low-risk (Gleason ≤6 and T1a) or high-risk (all others). Of the 654 patients who underwent HoLEP, 41 patients (6.3%) were identified as having incidental cancer (25 low-risk and 16 high-risk). There were no significant factors for overall prostate cancers. However, a significantly higher frequency of diabetes was observed in patients with high-risk cancer compared to those with BPH (31% vs. 13%; p?=?.033). Logistic regression analysis using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and prostate volume (PV), and smoking showed that diabetes was an independent predictor of high-risk cancer (odds ratio, 3.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.06–9.43). Diabetes may be an important predictor of the presence of high-risk prostate cancer in men with BPH who have undergone HoLEP.     

The Vestiges of the U.S. Occupation and the Redefining of the Japanese Woman

This article addresses the construction of Japanese womanhood toward the end of the U.S. occupation of Japan (1945–1952). In the early 1950s, the Japanese people were conscious about independence and envisioned a new, positive image of the nation. However, the actual image was overtly sexualized by the presence of numerous women consorting with U.S. servicemen during the occupation. This article explores how the Japanese government attempted to eliminate any sexualized elements from Japan. While focusing on Japanese women who had relationships with foreign men and mixed‐blood children, I argue that they served as the “Other” in redefining post‐occupation femininity.     

Does Japan Still Matter? Past Tendencies and Future Opportunities in the Study of Japanese Firms

This paper engages with the question ‘does Japan still matter’ by systematically reviewing publication patterns in peer‐reviewed academic journal articles addressing Japanese firms and their management practices, illustrating the academic discourse surrounding Japanese firms over four decades, and by identifying future research opportunities. Initially, particularly from the 1980s when Japanese firms came to prominence, these practices tended to be identified as ‘best practice’. However, at least in part due to socio‐economic changes, this tendency has become less prominent since the ‘bubble economy’ burst. Instead, three broader developments are observed: the examination of the continuity and change in the traditional Japanese model, a more complex approach that involves multiple themes of research, and leveraging new contexts to examine Japanese firms, including the long‐term recession, the rise of the East Asian economy, and the increasing importance of corporate social responsibility.