Errata

My article entitled "Replications, Significance Tests, and Confidencein Findings in Survey Research" (POQ 47:261–69) is marredby a serious error which has implications for most of the contentsof the article. Table 1, which is adapted from a table published by Rosenthaland Hall,¹ gives the critical values of required for significance at several levels; itdoes not give the critical values of Trans , or () (). Rather, the latter should be referreddirectly to a table giving the areas under the normal curve,or, in other words, it should be treated as though it were aZ from a single-sample test. This means that the comparisons of significance test resultsfrom pooled data and from series of replications in Tables 2and 3 do not support the conclusion that using a replicate designrather than pooled data lessens the probability of Type II errors.In the case of Table 2, the probability from the pooled sampleis lower than the correct one from the series of replications,and in the case of Table 3, the probabilities are about thesame. The data in Table 4 illustrate a kind of situation in whicha replicate design may be the preferred one for another reason.The replicate design allows an estimate of sampling variabilityfrom the actual variability among a small number of samples,whereas the single-sample and pooled-sample significance testresults may be substantially in error due to the unstable meaningof the "zero" assigned to the reference category for the dummyvariables. However, the estimated probability for the arrayof replications should be .05 rather than the probability reported. Another error with less serious implications for the paper asa whole is that the third "alternative formula" for Trans is incorrect as printed. One of thefirst two formulas, or () (), should be used instead. The major error resulted from a misreading of the paper by Rosenthaland Hall. I apologize to Rosenthal and Hall and to any readersof my paper who have used the table of critical values incorrectlyin their research.     

Education's Effects on Psychological Well-Being

Data from the 1973–1978 General Social Surveys were usedto estimate, by means of multiple regression analysis, the effectsof years of school completed on eight dimensions of psychologicalwell-being for white men, white women, black men, and blackwomen. Estimates are provided of total effects, effects netof socioeconomic variables, and effects net of socioeconomicvariables, family situation, and frequency of attendance ofreligious services. There is little evidence for negative effects,the only statistically significant negative coefficient beingthat for satisfaction with community among white men. Thereis some evidence that education has positive effects on psychologicalwell-being in all subpopulalions except black men, the strongestevidence being for white women. Dummy variable regression estimatesof the effects of different increments of education indicategreater effects from four years of high school than from fouryears of college. There is tentative evidence that mothers'education may have an important positive effect on their offspring'spsychological well-being. . The data reported here are from the 1973–1978 GeneralSocial Surveys conducted by the National Opinion Research Center(James A. Davis, principal investigator) with funds from theNational Science Foundation. The authors are solely responsiblefor the analyses and interpretations presented here. The dataset was obtained from the Roper Center at the University ofConnecticut. We are indebted to the management of the San AntonioCollege Computer Center for providing computer time for thisproject.     

THE ROLE OF CONSTITUENT TRUST IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS

The purpose of this inquiry is to introduce a new variable intothe study of congressional elections—constituent trust.Constituent trust is defined as the level of confidence thatconstituents have in their elected representative. This analysissuggests a strategy for measuring constituent trust and developsa model that relates constituent trust directly and indirectlyto electoral support. By pooling cross-sectional data drawnfrom the University of Michigan's American National ElectionStudies (1978–84), I demonstrate that when constituenttrust is salient in voter cognitions, it has a significant directinfluence on electoral support and is a better predictor ofelectoral support than the incumbent's party identification.In addition to its direct effects, I show that constituent trustindirectly influences electoral support because of its causalrelationship to incumbent popularity.     

Replications, Significance Tests and Confidence in Findings in Survey Research

It is now common for survey researchers to use comparable datafrom two or more surveys in studies which have no temporal dimension.However, they rarely do independent replications with the datafrom the different samples, in spite of the greater confidencein findings that testing the significance of statistics froma series of replications affords. A simple method of combiningprobabilities from two or more replications is described andillustrated, and a table of critical values to facilitate itsuse is provided.     

New Zealand's turbulent waters: the use of forced labour in the fishing industry

In this article, we make an empirical and conceptual contribution to the emerging debate on unfree labour in the context of labour chains and global value chains. We recast an historical view of poor labour practices aboard some foreign charter vessels fishing in New Zealand's waters as something more nefarious. Applying the International Labour Organization (ILO) and European Commission (EC) operational indicators of human trafficking for forced labour to 293 interviews, we evaluate the extent to which we can consider migrant fishing crew aboard South Korean vessels as victims of forced labour. We find that they are indeed victims of forced labour and that there is a need to extend the ILO/EC operational indicators to take into account exit strategies. Specifically, there is insufficient recognition of deception, exploitation and coercion at the point of exit, which can prevent a trafficked victim from exiting the employment relationship. Thus, it is crucial to take account of all stages, from recruitment to exit, to understand fully unfree labour in labour and global value chains.     

THE TREND IN "NO RELIGION" RESPONDENTS TO U.S. NATIONAL SURVEYS, LATE 1950s TO EARLY 1980s

Data from 110 U.S. national surveys are used to study the trendin "no religion" responses from the late 1950s to the early1980s. The trend was monotonically upward, at least until the1980s, when there were signs of leveling off or an incipientreversal of the trend. The trend came about through both changeswithin birth cohorts and cohort succession, and it involvedpersons of all major religious backgrounds and both men andwomen. Whether or not the change indicates an important degreeof secularization is considered at length. Problems involvedin using a dichotomous indicator to gauge change in a quantitativevariable are discussed.     

MORTGAGE LENDING IN BOSTON: A RECONSIDERATION OF THE EVIDENCE

Is there statistical evidence of racial discrimination in home mortgage markets? The Boston Fed recently addressed this concern head-on, by collecting all available data from loan applications in Boston. They find that the extent of discrimination is reduced after one accounts for all of the confounding variables measured in these applications, but that it remains statistically significant. However, their strong conclusions are unwarranted due to the use of invalid statistical methods. Correctly evaluated, their data provide no significant evidence of racial discrimination in mortgage markets. (JEL K31, J7)     

Residential Segregation and Institutional Completeness: A Comparison of Ethnic Minorities*

Cette étude de six groupes ethniques à Winnipeg démontre clairement l'importance de la ségrègation residentielle pour le maintien d'un degré de totalité d'un système institutionnel. La communauté francophone se maintient en suivant le modèle que Joy décrit comme s'appliquant au Québec, à savoir celui d'une zone centrale s'étendant dans la région qui l'encercle et se caracterisant par une mobilite intra-régionale considérable. Par ailleurs, les Scandinaves n'ont jamais réussi àétablir une base institutionnelle assez complète dans une zone écologique à part. Ils se sont alors dispersés comme l'auraient prédit les assimilationistes. Contrairement à la prédiction de Joy, la formation de deux communautés juives ségrégées a suivi la mobilité massive de Juifs vers les régions s'étendant dans les banlieues de West Kildonan et River Heights où ils ont établi un nouveau système d'institutions ethniques, abandonnant presque complétement la zone du North End où se trouvait le centre initial de la communauté juive. The importance of residential segregation for the maintenance of institutional completeness is clearly demonstrated by this study of six ethnic groups in Winnipeg. The French community maintainers follow Joy's Quebec core area pattern in St Boniface with extensions of their ethnic belt adjacent to the core and extensive intra-area mobility. On the other hand, the Scandinavians were never able to establish a very complete ethnic institutional base in a segregated ecological area, so they scattered as assimilationists would predict. Contrary to Joy's prediction, extensive Jewish mobility into their West Kildonan and River Heights suburban extended belt areas resulted in the establishment of two new segregated Jewish communities where they have created new complexes of ethnic institutions, leaving the original North End Jewish core area almost entirely.